Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
115 PM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021

.NEAR TERM UPDATE...A large ridge of high pressure continues to
extend from the western Atlantic through the Eastern Seaboard/
Appalachians/Tennessee Valley region early this afternoon. The
first advisory on Tropical Depression 4 was initiated this morning
and visible satellite imagery shows the associated low level
circulation approaching the SC coast early this afternoon, while a
mid/upper level trough axis was progressing westward into
northern FL and southern GA. Looking more locally, an easterly to
southeasterly surface flow remains prevalent over our forecast
area along the southwestern fringe of the ridge of high pressure.
Forecast soundings and model analysis indicate a little less in
the way of deep layer moisture across our region early this
afternoon vs. what has been observed the past few days, with PWATs
generally between 1.5 and 1.8 inches. We are expecting lesser
convective coverage as compared to the past few days, but there
will be sufficient moisture and instability to aid in the development
of scattered showers and storms through the afternoon, especially
across central and southern portions of the area. Have maintained
30-50% coverage of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast
mainly along and to the south of a Waynesboro, MS to Florala, AL
line through the afternoon, while still holding on to 10-20%
coverage over our far northern/northwestern zones. MLCAPE values
up to around 1500-2500 J/KG will generally be located along an
axis from southeast MS through interior southwest AL/western FL
panhandle through the afternoon, and will need to monitor convective
trends for a few stronger storms capable of producing strong wind
gusts in excess of 40 mph. High temperatures look on track to
range in the upper 80s to lower 90s inland and in the mid to upper
80s along the immediate coast. Maximum heat indices should reach
into the upper 90s to around 100 degrees. A MODERATE risk of rip
currents continues along area beaches through tonight. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...VFR conditions have mostly returned to the region
as of early this afternoon. A scattered to broken cumulus field
with bases between 3-5 kft AGL will develop through the afternoon.
Scattered SHRA and TSRA will also develop across portions of
southeast MS, southwest AL, and the western FL panhandle this
afternoon, with localized MVFR conditions and gusty winds possible
near the heavier convection that develops. There could be a
return to scattered to broken low stratus decks with MVFR to
localized IFR ceilings across portions of the area again early
Tuesday morning, but confidence is currently too low to put these
prevailing conditions in the KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAFs. East to southeast
winds will increase to 8-13 knots with a few higher gusts this
afternoon. /21

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
220 PM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021

ALZ059-FLZ201-203-282000-
Escambia AL-Escambia Inland FL-Santa Rosa Inland FL-
220 PM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHWESTERN ESCAMBIA...NORTHWESTERN SANTA ROSA AND NORTHWESTERN
ESCAMBIA COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

At 219 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorms were located 7 miles
northeast of Molino, or 12 miles south of Century, moving northwest
at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Milton, Century, Molino, Point Baker and Bratt.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through
flooded roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3070 8747 3072 8748 3072 8750 3074 8753
      3076 8754 3109 8742 3079 8696 3062 8702
      3063 8706 3062 8708 3061 8707 3060 8705
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 114DEG 15KT 3080 8723

CGAL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
240 PM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021

ALZ261-MSZ076-079-282030-
Mobile Inland AL-Greene MS-George MS-
240 PM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...WEST
CENTRAL MOBILE...NORTHEASTERN GEORGE AND SOUTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTIES
UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

At 239 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles north of
Wilmer, or 13 miles east of Lucedale, moving west at 15 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lucedale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3093 8830 3083 8834 3086 8877 3112 8865
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 102DEG 13KT 3089 8836