Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
401 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

.NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Sunday/...An upper level trough
continues to reside over the southeastern U.S. today into Sunday.
This helps promote northwesterly flow aloft today, becoming
northerly by Sunday as upper level ridging to the west shifts
slightly east. A surface trough over the southeastern U.S. may
gradually attempt to close off into an area of low pressure by
Sunday over GA or just offshore the GA coastline, and a
weak/diffuse surface boundary dropping south across the CWA today
helps to shift surface winds from westerly to northwesterly by the
evening hours.

Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity continues to increase in
coverage across portions of the CWA. Expect these to continue to
exhibit a more pop up nature with storms generally lasting an hour
or so before collapsing and repeating the cycle. Our environment
is ripe for strong updrafts and downdrafts in storms this
afternoon and evening. Latest mesoanalysis shows generally 4,000
to 5,000j/kg of SBCAPE has developed over the region amidst
surface temperatures in the upper 80's and lower 90's, and surface
dewpoints in the middle 70's along with steep low level lapse
rates over 8C/km. Likewise, our MLCAPE is high generally between
3,000 to 3,500j/kg. Shear is rather marginal, with around 15 to
20kts effective shear present, however may eventually support some
local organization of convection into loose linear segments by
this evening (particularly when shear is "maximized" closer to
sunset as the LLJ picks up in intensity). PWAT's remain in the 1.7
to 2.0 inch range, and as such strong precip loading should be
expected with any storms today. DCAPE values generally range in
the 1,000 to 1,200j/kg range this afternoon and evening,
supporting the notion for wet microbursts with any storms. Main
hazards today continue to be locally damaging wind gusts, heavy
rainfall, and frequent lightning. A marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms remains in place for all of the CWA by the SPC.

By tonight, convection should gradually fade in intensity and
coverage to isolated to perhaps scattered showers and storms at
times. By daybreak Sunday, at best isolated showers and storms
should remain. Temperatures overnight tonight will bottom out in
the lower to middle 70's. Sunday will feature generally a similar
evolution to Saturday, with convection increasing in coverage
during the afternoon and evening hours and another shot at some
wet microbursts. There may be some slightly increased shear to
around 20 to 25kts Sunday, which may help with storm organization
a bit. Generally the same thermodynamic environment remains, but
could be modified some if enough convective overturning can occur
Saturday. Same hazards are expected with storms Sunday, including
locally damaging wind gusts, heavy rainfall, and frequent
lightning. High temperatures Sunday should top out in the upper
80's to lower 90's. A MODERATE risk of rip currents remains in
place today, becoming LOW risk on Sunday. MM/25

&&

.SHORT TERM /Sunday night Through Tuesday night/...The mid/upper
level shortwave just east of the area continues to slowly
progress southeastward and weaken as the larger trough digs
southward over the eastern Conus. The large upper high pressure
area centered over the Four Corners region will remain stationary.
Northerly to northeasterly (at times) winds aloft persist over
the region through the short term between these systems. Drier
mid/upper air on the backside of the digging eastern Conus trough
filters into much of Deep South on Monday into Tuesday. PWATs
slowly trend downward through the period, from around 2.0 inches
area-wide Sunday night to between 0.75 to 1.5 inches by late
Tuesday night. Down in the lower levels, the local area remains on
the western periphery of a weak surface trough sliding through
the Southeast while a weak surface ridge encompasses much of the
Gulf. Another weak surface trough will setup along the Eastern
Seaboard Tuesday and Tuesday night due to the aforementioned
digging trough. Moisture in the lower levels lingers across much
of the area through Monday, followed by a slight decrease on
Tuesday.

Showers and storms will likely still be ongoing as we head into
the Sunday night timeframe, but will dwindle in coverage
throughout the evening hours. Precipitation coverage on Monday
will not be quite as high as what we will see over the weekend,
but there will still be scattered showers and storms throughout
the afternoon given the lingering surface trough and ample
moisture. Precipitation coverage on Tuesday will mainly be
confined to scattered showers and storms across the southern half
of the forecast area, with isolated across the northern half.

Temperatures both Sunday and Monday nights will only fall into
the low to mid 70s areawide. High temperatures both Monday and
Tuesday will soar into the low to mid 90s. Dewpoints will
unfortunately remain in the 70s on Monday, so heat indices will
creep back up into the 102-107° range. The somewhat lower
dewpoints on Tuesday will result in heat indices in the 98-103°
range. /22

&&

.EXTENDED TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...The upper ridge
over the western CONUS and upper trough over the east coast will
largely prevail. The drier air will continue to filter into the
region from the north through midweek, so only expecting isolated
showers and storms along and south of I-10 on Wednesday with dry
conditions area-wide on Thursday. Expecting a typical, summertime
diurnal pattern to return late in the week, with daily chances of
showers and storms developing over the Gulf and along the coast
in the morning spreading inland through the day Friday and
Saturday. However, the models are indicating a disturbance
entering the Gulf of Mexico, bringing a plethora of moisture along
with it to the northern Gulf coast on Saturday. The GFS looks to
be further east with this feature moving the rain into the
northern central Gulf region, while the ECMWF at this point is
targeting to the northwest Gulf. We will monitor this as the
forecast unfolds for late next week depending on how this
disturbance develops. There could be a big increase in PoPs and
associated heavy rain potential as model PWATs increase to be
between 2.5-3.0 inches along the Gulf coast. However, it is still
too early to know exactly when and where this might occur being
at the tail end of the forecast period. Temperatures will be a
touch cooler through the extended. /22

&&

.MARINE...Light to moderate westerly flow continues over the
marine area through Monday, returning to more southwesterly by
Tuesday. Small craft should continue to exercise caution this
evening over the offshore gulf waters. MM/25

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
323 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

ALZ057-058-122115-
Butler AL-Crenshaw AL-
323 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...EASTERN
BUTLER AND CRENSHAW COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

At 323 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles south of
Highland Home, or 11 miles north of Luverne, moving southeast at 30
mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Luverne, Brantley, Rutledge, Glenwood, Petrey and Highland Home.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3153 8630 3151 8640 3153 8640 3152 8663
      3194 8659 3198 8630 3197 8630 3197 8626
      3186 8618 3183 8618 3179 8620 3179 8615
      3166 8615 3166 8616 3165 8616 3162 8618
      3162 8615 3155 8615
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 334DEG 24KT 3188 8633

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
358 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

ALZ264-266-FLZ201>206-122200-
Baldwin Coastal AL-Baldwin Central AL-Okaloosa Inland FL-
Escambia Inland FL-Okaloosa Coastal FL-Santa Rosa Coastal FL-
Escambia Coastal FL-Santa Rosa Inland FL-
358 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...SOUTHEASTERN BALDWIN...SOUTHWESTERN OKALOOSA...CENTRAL
SANTA ROSA AND SOUTHERN ESCAMBIA COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

At 358 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 5 miles north of Roeville to near Summerdale, and
moving southeast at 25 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Ferry Pass, Brent, West Pensacola, Wright, Fort Walton Beach, Ensley,
Warrington, Gonzalez, Eglin AFB, Foley, Pace, Milton, Orange Beach,
Goulding, Mary Esther, Robertsdale, Bagdad, Ocean City, Lake Lorraine
and Lillian.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3056 8786 3090 8706 3042 8649 3033 8713
      3033 8718 3041 8666 3036 8720 3044 8688
      3060 8702 3057 8700 3058 8718 3032 8726
      3032 8721 3025 8777 3024 8776 3024 8777
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 295DEG 23KT 3075 8697 3048 8774

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
449 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

ALZ058-060-122230-
Covington AL-Crenshaw AL-
449 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHEASTERN CRENSHAW AND EASTERN COVINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM
CDT...

At 449 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 6 miles north of
Opp, moving southeast at 30 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Opp, Lockhart and Dozier.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3153 8616 3153 8620 3103 8619 3101 8636
      3150 8640 3157 8617 3154 8615
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 329DEG 25KT 3137 8623

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
450 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

ALZ056-057-060-122230-
Conecuh AL-Butler AL-Covington AL-
450 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHWESTERN BUTLER...EAST CENTRAL CONECUH AND NORTHWESTERN COVINGTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

At 450 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located near Georgiana, or
12 miles southwest of Greenville, moving southeast at 30 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Georgiana, McKenzie, River Falls, Red Level, Heath and Gantt.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3125 8664 3169 8688 3179 8670 3155 8650
      3153 8650 3153 8648 3139 8637
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 329DEG 25KT 3168 8675

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
533 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

ALZ056-057-059-060-122315-
Conecuh AL-Butler AL-Covington AL-Escambia AL-
533 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...SOUTH
CENTRAL BUTLER...EASTERN ESCAMBIA...SOUTHEASTERN CONECUH AND WESTERN
COVINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

At 533 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 8 miles southwest
of McKenzie, or 8 miles east of Evergreen, moving southeast at 30
mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Andalusia, Evergreen, McKenzie, River Falls, Red Level and I65 And US
84.

LAT...LON 3142 8705 3163 8658 3116 8643 3101 8682
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 330DEG 25KT 3145 8681

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
603 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

FLZ203>205-122345-
Okaloosa Inland FL-Santa Rosa Coastal FL-Santa Rosa Inland FL-
603 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...WEST
CENTRAL OKALOOSA AND NORTHEASTERN SANTA ROSA COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM
CDT...

At 603 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 6 miles east of
Jay, or 11 miles south of Brewton, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Milton, Bagdad, Jay, Point Baker and Roeville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3096 8721 3100 8711 3100 8693 3071 8664
      3058 8700 3060 8702 3059 8703 3058 8702
      3056 8707
TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 334DEG 21KT 3094 8704