Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
306 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday/...The severe threat through
mid afternoon will be confined to the western Florida and south
central Alabama where 1800-2400 J/KG of SBCAPE remain ahead of the
eastward moving line of convection. The severe weather threat will
then end by late this afternoon. As far as rainfall is concerned,
considering the differences in guidance have opted to expand the
Flash Flood Watch to include the western 2/3rds of the forecast
area through 6 PM Wednesday. A slight risk for flash flooding is
possible across the Watch area, with a marginal risk elsewhere.
Training of heavy showers and storms remains likely across the
entire forecast from midnight tonight through Wednesday afternoon
with upwards of 1 to 2 inches of additional rainfall expected,
with isolated higher amounts up to 4 inches possible, especially
in the Flash Flood Watch area.

Tonight temperatures will dip into the middle to upper 60's.
Wednesday will feature highs in the lower to middle 70's inland,
with middle to upper 70's along the coast. A MODERATE risk of rip
currents remains in place today, becoming a LOW risk for
Wednesday. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z issuance...Expect MVFR ceilings to remain dominant through
the period, with IFR ceilings and visibilities possible in any
showers or thunderstorms that develops this afternoon into the
evening hours. An isolated strong to severe storm is possible
across the western Florida and south central Alabama late this
afternoon, with damaging wind gusts the primary hazard. /22

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for ALZ051>053-055-
     056-059-261>266.

FL...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for FLZ201>204.

MS...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1212 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

ALZ052-261-262-MSZ076-111800-
Baldwin Inland AL-Washington AL-Mobile Inland AL-Greene MS-
1212 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...NORTHERN MOBILE...NORTHWESTERN BALDWIN...SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON AND SOUTHERN GREENE COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM CDT...

At 1212 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles east of McLain to 5 miles south of Leakesville
to 11 miles west of Gulfcrest, and moving northeast at 30 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Citronelle, Leakesville, Gulfcrest, Deer Park, Mount Vernon, Calvert,
Fruitdale, McIntosh and Movico.

LAT...LON 3136 8842 3128 8804 3122 8794 3121 8795
      3116 8794 3115 8797 3114 8794 3116 8793
      3115 8791 3118 8788 3116 8788 3118 8785
      3110 8771 3094 8828 3106 8859 3105 8884
      3109 8884
TIME...MOT...LOC 1712Z 244DEG 26KT 3109 8871 3108 8854 3105 8841

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1249 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

ALZ052-053-055-056-059-262-111830-
Clarke AL-Baldwin Inland AL-Monroe AL-Conecuh AL-Escambia AL-
Washington AL-
1249 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...SOUTHWESTERN MONROE...NORTHWESTERN BALDWIN...SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON...SOUTHEASTERN CLARKE...NORTHWESTERN ESCAMBIA AND
SOUTHWESTERN CONECUH COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM CDT...

At 1248 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 3 miles northwest of Deer Park to 4 miles southeast of
McIntosh to 11 miles northeast of Stockton, and moving northeast at
30 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Jackson, McCullough, Wagarville, Leroy, Uriah, Tibbie, Calvert,
McIntosh, I65 And AL 113 and Poarch Creek Reservation.

LAT...LON 3144 8742 3127 8710 3102 8776 3110 8796
      3115 8794 3115 8797 3117 8799 3114 8802
      3114 8805 3126 8844 3129 8844 3154 8803
TIME...MOT...LOC 1748Z 245DEG 26KT 3127 8835 3122 8799 3113 8777

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
129 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

ALZ264-266-FLZ201-202-111915-
Baldwin Coastal AL-Baldwin Central AL-Escambia Inland FL-
Escambia Coastal FL-
129 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...SOUTHERN BALDWIN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ESCAMBIA COUNTIES UNTIL
215 PM CDT...

At 129 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 3 miles east of Fairhope to near Foley to near Orange
Beach, and moving east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Pensacola, Brent, West Pensacola, Ensley, Fairhope, Foley, Gulf
Breeze, Orange Beach, Goulding, Robertsdale, Point Clear, Lillian,
Myrtle Grove, Magnolia Springs, Bon Secour, Summerdale, Silverhill,
Perdido Beach and Elberta.

LAT...LON 3033 8781 3041 8782 3038 8784 3041 8791
      3048 8794 3056 8790 3069 8742 3050 8721
      3034 8711 3037 8713 3042 8719 3042 8720
      3035 8715 3034 8715 3041 8722 3037 8732
      3032 8719 3034 8731 3025 8767
TIME...MOT...LOC 1829Z 259DEG 28KT 3053 8785 3043 8772 3030 8761

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
214 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

ALZ264-266-FLZ201>204-112000-
Baldwin Coastal AL-Baldwin Central AL-Escambia Inland FL-
Santa Rosa Coastal FL-Escambia Coastal FL-Santa Rosa Inland FL-
214 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHEASTERN BALDWIN...SOUTHWESTERN SANTA ROSA AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ESCAMBIA COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

At 213 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 6 miles west of
Ensley, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pensacola, Ferry Pass, Brent, West Pensacola, Ensley, Gonzalez, Pace,
Goulding, Lillian, Myrtle Grove, Pea Ridge and Floridatown.

LAT...LON 3040 8742 3044 8734 3047 8742 3044 8739
      3038 8745 3057 8753 3069 8724 3067 8712
      3055 8702 3044 8709 3052 8710 3058 8716
      3058 8718 3053 8719 3049 8715 3042 8718
      3039 8725 3037 8743
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 241DEG 17KT 3050 8738

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
251 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

FLZ203>205-112030-
Okaloosa Inland FL-Santa Rosa Coastal FL-Santa Rosa Inland FL-
251 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...WEST
CENTRAL OKALOOSA AND SOUTHERN SANTA ROSA COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

At 251 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located over Bagdad,
moving east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pace, Milton, Bagdad, Pea Ridge, Roeville, Floridatown and Point
Baker.

LAT...LON 3052 8710 3055 8713 3055 8712 3058 8716
      3057 8719 3054 8717 3063 8726 3078 8680
      3075 8669 3064 8661 3055 8664 3046 8694
      3051 8702 3052 8699 3058 8698 3060 8702
      3057 8700 3045 8707 3044 8709
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 252DEG 26KT 3058 8707

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
331 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

FLZ203-205-112130-
Okaloosa Inland FL-Santa Rosa Inland FL-
331 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...CENTRAL
OKALOOSA AND EAST CENTRAL SANTA ROSA COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 331 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 10 miles east of
Roeville, or 13 miles east of Milton, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Crestview, Baker and Roeville.

LAT...LON 3054 8692 3055 8693 3056 8692 3059 8694
      3060 8695 3069 8700 3092 8665 3092 8644
      3078 8639 3058 8639
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 239DEG 19KT 3068 8682

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