Special Marine Warning 40, NWS Mobile, AL

132 
FZUS74 KMOB 011936
MWSMOB

Marine Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
136 PM CST Mon Mar 1 2021

GMZ650-670-011945-
/O.EXP.KMOB.MA.W.0040.000000T0000Z-210301T1945Z/
136 PM CST Mon Mar 1 2021

...THE SPECIAL MARINE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 145 PM CST...

The affected areas were... 
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM...
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM...

The thunderstorms have moved out of the area.

LAT...LON 3016 8720 2992 8722 2971 8743 2944 8809
      2952 8813 2989 8831
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 249DEG 32KT 3021 8729 2994 8743 2964 8790 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1203 PM CST Mon Mar 1 2021

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Tuesday/...A cold front near the I-10
corridor will continue to advance south of the coast by mid
afternoon. Deep layer moisture and low-level forcing will become
enhanced ahead of the frontal zone through mid afternoon, in
association with periodic shortwave impulses embedded within the
west-southwest flow. This will support numerous rain showers and a
few embedded thunderstorms though about 4 pm along the coast. Low
level wind fields will remain weak, but MLCAPE values currently
between 1000-2000 J/KG and sufficient deep layer shear could
result in the development of a couple of stronger storm cells
early this afternoon capable of producing gusty winds and brief
heavy rainfall. Highs today have already been reached, and a
steady downward trend will occur through the remainder of the
afternoon in the wake of the front.

An upper level low is forecast to lift toward the ArkLaTex region
Tuesday morning and toward the Mid-Mississippi Valley region
through Tuesday afternoon. A moist west-southwest flow pattern
aloft will persist across our local area tonight into Tuesday
ahead of this system. A couple of shortwave troughs embedded
within this flow pattern will move across our region late tonight
into Tuesday, providing enhanced ascent within the deeply moist
airmass over our area. The frontal boundary is forecast to stall
over the north central Gulf, just to the south of our local marine
area tonight. This feature will lift north as a warm front during
the day Tuesday as a surface wave of low pressure lifts
northeastward from the western Gulf Tuesday morning to near the
mouth of the Mississippi River by late Tuesday afternoon. Models
are is good agreement keeping the eastward track of the surface
just off the coast, so for now it appears the associated warm
front will be positioned just south of the coast along our near
shore marine zones in the afternoon. Rain showers are forecast to
increase in coverage going into late tonight ahead of the initial
approaching shortwave trough, and expect numerous to widespread
coverage of showers across most of our area after midnight
tonight. POPs subsequently increase to 60-80% late tonight. A more
diffluent pattern aloft will be in place across our CWA on
Tuesday ahead of the upper level low that will be lifting toward
the MS Valley. Increased forcing for ascent should allow for the
development of widespread rain showers across our forecast area
during the day Tuesday, with perhaps enough elevated instability
for isolated thunderstorms. Precipitable water values will be
enhanced around 1.5" and the pattern will be supportive of locally
heavy rainfall around the region. Widespread rainfall amounts
between 1.5" to 2.5" look to be a good bet across much of the area
with this event, with localized totals over 3" certainly possible.
There will be a marginal risk of flooding, particularly of low
lying and urban areas where heavy rain/storms train through the
day Tuesday. We will also need to watch where the warm front will
be located going into late Tuesday afternoon/evening. Severe
convection will probably remain confined to our marine zones.

Lows tonight will be much cooler in the mid 40s to lower 50s
north of I-10 and in the lower to mid 50s near the immediate
coast. Highs on Tuesday remain chilly in the 50s inland areas,
with lower 60s along the coast. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibility reductions due
to rain showers will impact locations along the immediate coast
this afternoon. MVFR to VFR ceilings otherwise will prevail inland
with little rain expected behind a cold front nearing the coast,
that is forecast to move south of the coast by mid afternoon.
Northerly winds in the wake of will increase to 8-13 knots with a
few higher gusts. Ceilings lower to IFR to MVFR late tonight,
followed by numerous to widespread rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms returning on Tuesday. /22

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CST this evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CST this evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ630>636-650-655.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Tuesday
     for GMZ650-655-670-675.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
835 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021

ALZ053-055>060-262-011600-
Clarke AL-Baldwin Inland AL-Monroe AL-Conecuh AL-Butler AL-
Escambia AL-Covington AL-Crenshaw AL-
835 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...BUTLER...MONROE...NORTH CENTRAL BALDWIN...CRENSHAW...EAST
CENTRAL CLARKE...NORTHWESTERN ESCAMBIA...CONECUH AND NORTHERN
COVINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 AM CST...

At 834 AM CST, the strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 4 miles northwest of Petrey to 10 miles east of
Whatley to near Saint Stephens, and moving southeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Greenville, Monroeville, Evergreen, Luverne, Frisco City, McCullough,
Peterman, Georgiana, Uriah, Brantley, McKenzie, River Falls,
Castleberry, Excel, Red Level, Rutledge, Beatrice, Dozier, Repton and
Heath.

LAT...LON 3153 8620 3139 8619 3109 8771 3160 8780
      3197 8626 3196 8619 3189 8617 3179 8620
      3179 8615 3166 8615 3162 8618 3162 8615
      3154 8614
TIME...MOT...LOC 1434Z 320DEG 18KT 3190 8625 3163 8754 3150 8805