Special Marine Warning 276, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1230 PM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday/...A modest and broad upper
level trof which extends from the extreme southeast states to the
Bahamas advances a bit further eastward into the northeastern Gulf
and adjacent coastal areas through Thursday. Plenty of deep layer
moisture will be in place over the area through the period, with
precipitable water values of 1.7-2.1 inches, and MLCAPE values
look to generally range from 1500-2500 J/kg this afternoon and
mainly 1000-1500 J/kg on Thursday.  A weak surface trof which
currently extends from southeast Louisiana to across the forecast
area and into east central Alabama will serve as a focus to
initiate convection today, supporting likely pops for much of the
area which then diminishes during the evening hours. The surface
trof is expected to shift west of the area during the remainder of
the period with a surface ridge over the western Atlantic and
extreme southeast states meanwhile building westward across the
forecast area. This promotes a light southeasterly flow over the
area and am expecting scattered convective development, although
coverage looks to be a bit higher over the far western portion of
the area near the departing weak surface trof. Shear values remain
low, although given the higher MLCAPE values this afternoon, may
see some nuisance flooding issues from slow moving storms and
some storms may produce strong wind gusts. Highs this afternoon
range from the upper 80s at the immediate coast to the lower 90s
elsewhere. Highs on Thursday will be mostly in the lower 90s. Lows
tonight will be in the lower 70s except for mid 70s near the
coast. A low risk of rip currents continues through tonight, then
a moderate risk is expected for Thursday. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...Scattered to numerous showers and storms develop
across the area this afternoon then diminish this evening.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms develop again across the
area late from early to late morning on Thursday, with the higher
coverage expected over southeast Mississippi, extreme southwest
Alabama and the far western Florida panhandle. VFR conditions
prevail except for MVFR conditions with the stronger showers and
storms. Southeasterly winds 5 to 10 knots this afternoon become
light this evening then return to 5 to 10 knots Thursday morning.
/29

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
117 PM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021

ALZ265-251900-
Mobile Coastal AL-
117 PM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central Mobile
County through 200 PM CDT...

At 116 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
producing a waterspout south of Dauphin Island, moving northwest at
20 mph.

HAZARD...Waterspouts and winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally
         hazardous waters. Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs
         and blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Dauphin Island.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3026 8815 3033 8819 3036 8819 3037 8822
      3036 8825 3033 8826 3036 8826 3042 8811
      3033 8814 3033 8813 3029 8812 3032 8816
      3031 8816 3025 8808 3025 8818
TIME...MOT...LOC 1816Z 153DEG 17KT 3023 8806

WATERSPOUT...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
135 PM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021

ALZ264-266-251915-
Baldwin Coastal AL-Baldwin Central AL-
135 PM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Baldwin
County through 215 PM CDT...

At 135 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles northwest of Magnolia Springs, or 5 miles east of Point Clear,
moving northwest at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Daphne, Fairhope, Point Clear, Magnolia Springs, Summerdale and
Silverhill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3037 8784 3039 8783 3039 8781 3041 8782
      3042 8783 3039 8785 3039 8784 3038 8784
      3038 8787 3041 8791 3047 8792 3048 8794
      3055 8790 3064 8792 3070 8786 3048 8768
      3035 8783
TIME...MOT...LOC 1835Z 136DEG 5KT 3047 8782

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
207 PM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021

FLZ203>205-251945-
Okaloosa Inland FL-Santa Rosa Coastal FL-Santa Rosa Inland FL-
207 PM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Okaloosa and east central Santa Rosa Counties through 245 PM CDT...

At 206 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northwest of Valparaiso, moving west at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Milton, Bagdad, Point Baker and Roeville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3052 8701 3053 8700 3053 8699 3055 8700
      3058 8698 3060 8702 3059 8703 3057 8700
      3055 8702 3054 8704 3052 8704 3052 8710
      3053 8710 3079 8705 3068 8649 3055 8651
      3056 8653 3050 8656
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 098DEG 26KT 3060 8659

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH