Special Marine Warning 245, NWS Mobile, AL

441 
FZUS74 KMOB 041414
MWSMOB

Marine Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
914 AM CDT Wed Aug 4 2021

GMZ650-670-041422-
/O.CAN.KMOB.MA.W.0245.000000T0000Z-210804T1500Z/
914 AM CDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...THE SPECIAL MARINE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The affected areas were...
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM...
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM...

The thunderstorms moved out of the warned area.

LAT...LON 2969 8640 2968 8702 2972 8716 2995 8717
      3012 8703 3012 8640
TIME...MOT...LOC 1412Z 351DEG 2KT 2999 8769 2982 8723 2980 8642 

$$

GMZ655-675-041500-
/O.CON.KMOB.MA.W.0245.000000T0000Z-210804T1500Z/
914 AM CDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT...

For the following areas...
Coastal waters from Okaloosa-Walton County Line to Pensacola FL out
20 NM...
Waters from Okaloosa-Walton County Line to Pensacola FL from 20 to 60
NM...

At 912 AM CDT, thunderstorms capable of producing waterspouts were 
located along a line extending from 15 nm south of Gulf Shores Beach 
to 17 nm southwest of Oriskany Reef to 11 nm southeast of Okaloosa 
Deep Water Reef. The line has a very slow southward drift but cells 
are moving east along the line around 5 to 10 knots.

HAZARD...Waterspouts and wind gusts 34 knots or greater.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally 
         hazardous seas. Small craft could be damaged in briefly 
         higher winds and suddenly higher waves.

Locations impacted include...
Okaloosa Deep Water Reef and Oriskany Reef. 

LAT...LON 2969 8640 2968 8702 2972 8716 2995 8717
      3012 8703 3012 8640
TIME...MOT...LOC 1412Z 351DEG 2KT 2999 8769 2982 8723 2980 8642 

WATERSPOUT...POSSIBLE
HAIL...0.00IN
WIND...>34KTS

$$

314 
FZUS74 KMOB 041448
MWSMOB

Marine Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
948 AM CDT Wed Aug 4 2021

GMZ655-041457-
/O.CAN.KMOB.MA.W.0245.000000T0000Z-210804T1500Z/
948 AM CDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...THE SPECIAL MARINE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The affected areas were...
Coastal waters from Okaloosa-Walton County Line to Pensacola FL out
20 NM...

Thunderstorms have  moved out of the warned area.

LAT...LON 2969 8640 2968 8702 2972 8716 2993 8717
      2987 8640
TIME...MOT...LOC 1447Z 325DEG 4KT 2979 8715 2973 8640 

$$

GMZ675-041500-
/O.CON.KMOB.MA.W.0245.000000T0000Z-210804T1500Z/
948 AM CDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT...

For the following areas...
Waters from Okaloosa-Walton County Line to Pensacola FL from 20 to 60
NM...

At 947 AM CDT, thunderstorms capable of producing waterspouts were 
located along a line extending from 16 nm southwest of Oriskany Reef 
to 16 nm south of Okaloosa Deep Water Reef. The thunderstorm line 
has a very slow southard drift.

HAZARD...Waterspouts and wind gusts 34 knots or greater.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally 
         hazardous seas. Small craft could be damaged in briefly 
         higher winds and suddenly higher waves.

Severe thunderstorms will remain over mainly open waters.

LAT...LON 2969 8640 2968 8702 2972 8716 2993 8717
      2987 8640
TIME...MOT...LOC 1447Z 325DEG 4KT 2979 8715 2973 8640 

WATERSPOUT...POSSIBLE
HAIL...0.00IN
WIND...>34KTS

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
639 AM CDT Wed Aug 4 2021

.AVIATION...
12Z issuance...VFR conditions will generally prevail through the
next 24 hours. Localized brief reductions in ceilings and
visibility can be expected this morning in patchy fog and again
this afternoon around VCTS. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 511 AM CDT Wed Aug 4 2021/

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Thursday/...Currently, a mean upper
level trough is analyzed over the eastern Conus. A weak surface
front stalled over the northern Gulf coast, embedded in a mean
surface trough over the northern Gulf Coast/northern Gulf. Guidance
is advertising a surface low forming over the north-central Gulf
today. From there, the broad low is either maintained over the
northwestern Gulf (GFS, ECMWF, and HREF), or organizes into a more
significant closed low and heads towards the western Florida
Panhandle (NAM, RAP, SREF). In any solution, south to southeasterly
flow returns to the northeastern Gulf coast, with some moisture
pushing back into the southeastern quarter of the forecast area,
southeast of I-65. With such differing solutions, am leaning towards
the drier solutions, with the latest soundings from surrounding
offices advertising stronger north to northeasterly flow over the
Southeast currently, helping to maintain the dry push over the
forecast area. This will place the best PoPs along and south of the
coast, with a bit of a northerly push over areas southeast of I-65.

With the drier airmass over the majority of the forecast area, the
diurnal temperature range will see a bit of an increase from
seasonal norms. Low temperatures ranging from the mid 60s northwest
of the Alabama River to mid 70s close to the coast are expected
tonight and Wednesday night. High temperatures will see an uptick,
with around 90 to low 90s expected this afternoon, low to mid 90s
expected Thursday. /16

SHORT TERM /Thursday night Through Friday night/...A brief period
of zonal flow aloft is expected on Thursday night before another
upper level trough begins to move into the region from the central
CONUS on Friday. The surface boundary that has been situated
across the forecast area continues to linger over the Gulf/coast
Thursday night and will maintain precipitable water values as low
as 1.1 to 1.5 inches across interior locations. Moisture will be
higher (1.5-1.8 inches) along the coast as these locations are in
closer proximity to the surface boundary. A few showers and
storms will therefore be possible overnight Thursday, mainly along
the coast and Gulf waters.

South to southwest flow returns on Friday as the upper level
trough moves into the region. This upper level flow in combination
with the dissipating surface boundary will bring a surge of
moisture into the area, causing an increase in PWAT's to around
1.7 to 2.2 inches. The timing of ascent with shortwave
perturbations embedded within the southerly flow remain a bit
uncertain, so for now kept POPs mostly between 30-40% coverage
across much of the region Friday afternoon. Coverage is expected
to decrease inland on Friday night with isolated to scattered
showers and storms favored mainly over the coast and Gulf.

Overnight lows on Thursday and Friday will continue to range from
the upper 60s to lower 70s inland with mid to upper 70s along the
immediate coast. Highs during the day Thursday will be in the
upper 80s to lower 90s. /14

EXTENDED TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...An upper level trough
should continue to progress eastward across the Deep South Saturday
but should get a push to the east of our region by Saturday night
(the latest GFS is a little slower with the eastward progression of
the trough). Ridging aloft may tend to build across the north
central Gulf Coast region late this weekend into the early part of
next week, with the EURO indicating stronger ridging aloft Monday
into Tuesday. At the surface, the weak low level front/boundary that
had been laying across the region for the past several days
dissipates with surface ridging building into the area from the
east. Deep layer moisture will be increasing during the extended
term with a general southerly low level flow, and instability will be
sufficient to maintain typical scattered coverage of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast each day. Precip should follow the
normal summertime diurnal pattern, with showers and storms most
widespread during the afternoon and evening hours, but isolated
coverage may persist overnight near the coast and over the Gulf
waters. Daytime highs should be quite warm, mainly in the lower 90s
for most locations, but some upper 80s along the immediate coast and
perhaps some mid 90s over interior southeast Mississippi as well as
portions of southwest and south central Alabama. Higher
dewpoints/afternoon humidity may result in heat index values
climbing back into the 100-107 range Sunday through Tuesday.
Overnight lows continue to be in the low to mid 70s over interior
locations, mid to upper 70s near and along the coast. /12

MARINE...No impacts forecast except for higher winds and waves
near scattered to occasionally numerous showers and thunderstorms. /13

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

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