Special Marine Warning 192, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
415 AM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021

.NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Wednesday/...Regional radar and
satellite imagery shows the a large area of showers with a few
embedded thunderstorms that affected our area earlier this morning
has largely spread eastward across the Florida Panhandle and
southeast Alabama. Some stronger storm cells are ongoing over the
open Gulf waters, but will gradually shift east as well.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through this
morning as periodic shortwaves translate over our region on the base
of a larger scale trough encompassing much of the east central
CONUS. A surface front is also forecast to sag southward into our
forecast area during the day today. The combination of the deep
moisture, increased ascent, and persistent instability will aid in
the continued development of numerous to widespread showers and
thunderstorms across much of our area through the afternoon. The
stronger storms will be efficient rainfall producers and could
quickly produce 1-2" in a short period of time. The general forecast
calls for an additional 2-4" of rain near the coast through this
afternoon, but there could be localized higher amounts. Soils will
remain quite saturated near the coast (especially after the rains
from TS Claudette and the showers and storms from overnight/early
this morning), so the Flash Flood Watch will continue for Stone MS,
George MS, Mobile AL, Baldwin AL, Escambia FL, Santa Rosa FL, and
Okaloosa, FL counties until 7 PM this evening.

The surface boundary will then linger over the Gulf coast, keeping
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for the local
area through Wednesday. Coverage is expected to decrease somewhat
tonight (along with PWATs), but showers and storms will ramp back up
through the day on Wednesday. However, not expecting as much
coverage like tonight and earlier this week since the upper ridge
looks to build into the Deep South from the west on Wednesday.

High today are expected to be in the lower to mid 80s, with lows
generally in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees inland. Near the
coast, lows will be in the lower to mid 70s. Expecting slightly
warmer temperatures Wednesday afternoon, in the mid to upper 80s.
Lastly, the HIGH RISK of rip currents remains in effect through
today, followed by a MODERATE RISK tonight. /21/26

&&

.SHORT TERM /Wednesday night Through Friday night/...An upper
ridge will be in place across northern Mexico into the south
central states, with a weakening upper trof over the eastern
states and another upper ridge over the western Atlantic. The
upper trof lifts off to the northeast through Thursday, though a
weakness remains over the extreme southeastern states between the
two upper ridges, supported in part by an upper trof in the
easterlies which extends from the southeast Gulf to along the
Florida peninsula.  A weak frontal boundary across southern
Alabama/Mississippi Wednesday night essentially dissipates on
Thursday, although a broad and weak convergent zone is left over
the area between a sea breeze and more easterly winds impinging
into the northeastern portion of the area associated with an
Appalachian surface ridge. Ample deep layer moisture will be in
place over the southern portion of the area tapering to somewhat
lower deep layer moisture further to the north. Given the moisture
distribution, the (albeit weak) surface features in place along
with a series of modest shortwaves, have continued with likely
pops over much of the southern half of the area with chance pops
further northward.  The upper level weakness/trof in the
easterlies drifts slowly westward during the remainder of the
period to be mostly oriented from the northeast Gulf into southern
Alabama/southwest Georgia while a large positively tilted trof
evolves over the Plains into the Great Lakes region. A surface
ridge over the Appalachians will have meanwhile built into the
region promoting a southeasterly flow over the area. Ample deep
layer moisture over the southern portion of the area spreads
inland during the day on Friday and with daytime heating and a
series of shortwaves moving across the area, expect a diurnal
convective cycle to continue for Friday with chance to good chance
pops. MLCAPE values on Thursday and Friday are expected to mainly
range from 2000-2500 J/kg while shear values will be low. Expect
that slow moving showers and storms could lead to some nuisance
flooding type of issues and some strong storms are possible as
well. Overnight lows range from around 70 well inland to the mid
70s at the immediate coast. Highs on Thursday and Friday will be
mostly in the mid to upper 80s with some spots potentially
reaching the lower 90s. A low risk of rip currents is anticipated
through the period. /29

&&

.EXTENDED TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...An upper trof in the
easterlies progresses from the northeast Gulf/southern
Alabama/southwest Georgia to the northwestern Gulf through Sunday
while the large positively tilted upper trof persists over the
Plains to near the Great Lakes region. An upper ridge meanwhile
builds from the western Atlantic into the extreme southeast
states, then remains in place through Tuesday while the upper trof
in the easterlies dissipates while continuing into Mexico and the
large upper trof over the Plains to near the Great Lakes advances
eastward slightly. A surface ridge in place across the
southeastern states gradually weakens but maintains a light
southerly flow over the forecast area. With the passage of the
upper trof in the easterlies, this allows for deep layer moisture
to increase a bit higher over the forecast area by Sunday
(precipitable water values around 2.0 inches) with similar values
persisting through Tuesday. Have continued with chance to good
chance pops for Saturday, then as the large upper trof sends a
series of shortwaves across the forecast area, mainly the
northwestern half or two thirds, and with daytime heating have
opted for likely pops Sunday through Tuesday along and west of
I-65 with chance to good chance pops over the remaining portion.
Daytime highs will be mostly in the mid to upper 80s and overnight
lows will be in the lower to mid 70s. /29

&&

.MARINE...A light to moderate southwest wind flow will continue
through much of the week as a weak front approaches from the north
and stalls. The front is expected to dissipate north of the marine
area, with a south to southeast flow then developing late in the
week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorm will also
continue across the area through mid-week. /26

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for ALZ265-266.

     Flash Flood Watch through this evening for ALZ261>266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ202-204-206.

     Flash Flood Watch through this evening for FLZ201>206.

MS...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for MSZ078-079.

GM...None.
&&

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