Dense Fog Advisory 37, NWS Mobile, AL

280 
WWUS74 KMOB 110402
NPWMOB

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1002 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

ALZ263>266-FLZ202-204-206-111400-
/O.CON.KMOB.FG.Y.0037.000000T0000Z-211211T1400Z/
Mobile Central-Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-
Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Coastal-Okaloosa Coastal-
Including the cities of Mobile, Prichard, Theodore, Bay Minette, 
Daphne, Fairhope, Foley, Spanish Fort, Bayou La Batre, 
Dauphin Island, Grand Bay, Fort Morgan, Gulf Shores, 
Orange Beach, Beulah, Ensley, Fort Pickens, Pensacola, 
Pensacola Beach, Perdido Bay, Bagdad, Gulf Breeze, Navarre, 
Destin, Eglin AFB, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Seminole, 
Valparaiso, and Wright
1002 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM CST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Visibility one quarter mile or less in dense fog.

* WHERE...In Alabama, Mobile Central, Baldwin Central, Mobile 
  Coastal and Baldwin Coastal Counties. In Florida, Escambia 
  Coastal, Santa Rosa Coastal and Okaloosa Coastal Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 8 AM CST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Hazardous driving conditions due to low visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of
distance ahead of you.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1229 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Saturday/...A large upper trof advances
across the Plains through this evening, then much of the upper trof
ejects into the interior eastern states through Saturday while the
remaining weaker portion of the upper trof advances more slowly into
the south central states.  An associated surface low currently
located to the lee of the Rockies over the central Plains deepens
while moving off across the Great Lakes, and in the process brings
a cold front through the forecast area between near midday
Saturday to approximately early Saturday evening. With the main
system lifting well off to the north, this means that deep layer
forcing will be steadily weakening as the front moves through our
area, and instability also will be decreasing. While 0-6 km bulk
shear values of 45-55 knots will be present along and ahead of the
front, SBCAPE values of initially 500-1000 J/kg diminish during
the afternoon such that the potential for strong to severe
convection looks to be confined to west of I-65. The Storm
Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk of severe storms along and
west of I-65 which matches this assessment well. Convection
Allowing Models (CAMS) also support this weakening trend as the
front moves through. There will be some potential for a few strong
storms during the remainder of this afternoon and also late Saturday
morning prior to the arrival of the front, but otherwise
unfavorable lapse rates seen in model soundings should preclude a
risk of strong storms. Highs this afternoon will be in the upper
70s to around 80. This will be near the record high of 80 at
Mobile (MOB) and the record of 78 at Pensacola (PNS) has already
been beat as current temperatures at PNS are 79F. Lows tonight
will be rather mild and range from the mid 60s inland to the upper
60s near the coast. Highs on Saturday will be mostly in the mid to
upper 70s and may beat the current record of 77 at PNS and at
least be near near the current record of 78 at MOB. For rain
chances, will have slight chance pops tonight for some isolated
convection then categorical pops follow for most of the area on
Saturday. A moderate risk of rip currents this afternoon will be
followed by a high risk of rip currents beginning this evening.
May need to issue a Dense Fog Advisory for bays and sounds
beginning this evening, but confidence in dense fog over land
portions of the area is not sufficient for an advisory at this
point. Have included patchy dense fog for the entire area
overnight for now. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...MVFR to VFR ceilings over the area, including IFR
to to MVFR ceilings at the coast, are expected to lower to LIFR to
IFR areawide overnight with VLIFR conditions in fog possible.
Ceilings improve to MVFR Saturday morning with the fog
dissipating. Isolated convection will be possible through tonight,
then scattered showers and storms are expected to develop Saturday
morning. Southerly winds of 10 to 15 knots diminish to 5 to 10
knots this evening, then become southwest 10 to 15 knots Saturday
morning. /29

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from 6 PM CST this evening through late
     Saturday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from 6 PM CST this evening through late
     Saturday night for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1110 AM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

ALZ052-261-101800-
Washington AL-Mobile Inland AL-
1110 AM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Mobile
and southeastern Washington Counties through NOON CST...

At 1109 AM CST, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm 8 miles northwest of Gulfcrest, or 8 miles west
of Citronelle, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Citronelle.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3103 8843 3111 8842 3128 8816 3124 8801
      3109 8802 3100 8837
TIME...MOT...LOC 1709Z 236DEG 24KT 3105 8836

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1239 PM CST FRI DEC 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 NE ROSINTON           30.66N 87.64W
12/10/2021                   BALDWIN            AL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            RIVER ROAD WAS WASHED OUT NEAR BRADY ROAD
            DUE TO A RAPID RISE OF THE NEARBY STYX
            RIVER. THE NEARBY STYX RIVER GAUGE AT SMITHS
            LANDING ROSE 10 FEET FROM 11PM TO 9AM.

&&

JFB