Areal Flood Warning 1, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
913 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday/...

...Severe Weather Outbreak Increasingly Likely Across Portions of
the Deep South...

An upper level trough centered over the Four Corners states this
evening shifts east into the Central Plains states Wednesday as it
begins to take on a negative tilt. A split flow of the subtropical
jet and polar jet is evident over the deep south rounding the base
of the aforementioned trough, supporting ample upper level difluence
moving into the region Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.
This will favor large scale ascent across the region, with best
upper level difluence located to the northwest of our CWA. At the
surface, a warm front begins to lift north into north-central
Alabama tonight into Wednesday morning, leaving a wide open warm
sector with ample southerly surface winds off the Gulf of Mexico
over our CWA. A strengthening surface low pressure system will move
from the Texas Panhandle tonight into northern Arkansas and southern
Missouri by Wednesday evening. A cold front progresses through the
CWA overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning, clearing the area
near daybreak Thursday.

Multiple hazards are expected over the next 24 to 36 hours, and each
is broken down below. A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is
possible Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning, with multiple
rounds of severe weather. Details on location, timing, and hazards
is also detailed below.

Flash flooding and Overnight Forecast:

The flash flooding threat appears to be slowly winding down this
evening as convection has gradually diminished in coverage and
intensity. Some additional convective development is possible during
the overnight hours, however it is not expected to be nearly as
extensive as what occurred during the day. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms continue to be possible through the overnight, some of
which could produce locally heavy rainfall. Overall severe threat
appears low overnight, however given continued surface based CAPE
and mixed layer CAPE values over 1,000 J/kg and 40 to 50kts of deep
layer shear an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm can not be
ruled out. Hazards with any deep convection would include heavy
rainfall, strong wind gusts, and large hail to quarter size. Lows
tonight will drop into the middle 60's.

Severe Weather Outbreak Increasingly Likely Wednesday Through
Thursday Morning:

Wednesday Afternoon and Evening: Isolated, discrete to semi-discrete
supercell thunderstorm development remains possible Wednesday
afternoon across the entirety of our CWA. Best timing for convection
to develop appears to be after 1 PM CDT. These thunderstorms will
move from southwest to northeast across the CWA through about 8 PM
CDT. The environment is favorable for any discrete supercells to
produce strong tornadoes, damaging winds to 70+mph, and large hail
upwards of golf ball size. CAPE appears to be plentiful, with
surface based CAPE values ranging between 2,000 to 2,500+ J/kg.
Mixed layer CAPE values will approach 1,500 to 2,000+ J/kg. Steep
lapse rates will also be present, with 7 to 8C/km mid-level lapse
rates and near 7C/km low-level lapse rates. Wind shear will also be
plentiful, with around 40 to 50kts of deep layer shear which will
favor supercellular storm mode. SRH values of 150 to 250 m^2/s^2
appear likely in the sfc-1km and sfc-3km layer, suggesting the
potential for robust rotating updrafts. The biggest question that
currently exists is convective coverage during the afternoon and
evening. Forecast models differ on convective initiation, and it is
possible that storms struggle to develop with better forcing for
ascent arriving later in the evening into overnight. However, it is
important to note that any storms that develop will pose a threat
for all severe hazards including large hail to golf ball size,
damaging winds to 70mph+, and tornadoes (some of which could be
strong).

Wednesday Night into Thursday Morning: An even more likely threat
for severe weather will evolve during the overnight hours. A
line/broken line of intense thunderstorms will likely be ongoing
along of and ahead of the front, with embedded supercell structures.
Best timing for this feature will likely be between 8PM to 1AM
across southeastern Mississippi, 9PM to 3AM over southwestern
Alabama including areas west of I-65, and 1AM to 6AM for the Florida
Panhandle and southwest/south-central Alabama east of I-65. Adequate
CAPE will still be present over the area, with near 1,000 J/kg mixed
layer and surface based CAPE. Shear increases considerably, with
near 50 to 55kts of deep layer shear owing to a strengthening
nocturnal low level jet. This will help to enlarge hodographs,
aiding in 300 to 400 m^2/s^2 SRH values in the sfc-1km and sfc-3km
layers. There remains uncertainty in regards to if the line remains
broken or if it is a solid line/qlcs, which will have an impact on
severe hazards. Shear vectors off the front at around 45 degrees
suggest that a more broken line appears possible, which would
continue favoring potential for strong tornadoes, damaging winds to
70mph+, and large hail to golf ball size. If the line turns out to
be more congealed a larger damaging wind threat would evolve, along
with a continuation for tornadoes and some instances of large hail.
The convective evolution of the line will have to be monitored going
into the day Wednesday and Wednesday evening.

In summary, a multi-episode severe event appears probable, with
afternoon and evening convection still uncertain across our CWA.
Another round of severe weather will likely impact the area
overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning in the form of a
convective line. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms could produce
strong tornadoes, damaging winds to 70mph, and large hail to golf
ball size. Hazards during the overnight are a little more uncertain,
however still expect damaging winds and tornadoes, with some
instances of large hail in any thunderstorms.

Other Hazards:

Dense Fog: Some patchy to areas of dense fog remains possible
tonight, primarily confined to coastal counties of Alabama and
Florida, spreading into the marine area where dense fog advisories
are in place. Fog may reduce visibility to near 1/4 mile at times,
primarily late this evening into the overnight. Fog will dissipate
by mid morning.

Wind Advisory: A Wind Advisory is in effect from 10AM CDT Wednesday
through 7AM CDT Thursday. Strong frequent wind gusts associated with
an increasing pressure gradient, daytime heating, and strong low
level winds above the surface will be likely, ranging from 30 to
35mph.

Rip Currents: A high risk for rip currents remains in place through
Friday morning. Strong southerly winds over a broad swath of the
Gulf of Mexico will aid in generation of large period swell packets
that will continue to affect the coastline through Friday morning.
It is possible this risk could expand further in time if high period
swell continues.

Rest of the Near Term:

Thursday Morning into Evening: Once the line of convection has
shifted east of the CWA, strong westerly winds of 10 to 20mph can be
expected behind the cold front. Temperatures can be expected to warm
into the upper 60's, with lower to middle 70's possible over the
Florida panhandle and south-central Alabama. Dry weather prevails
behind the front, with ample clearing by early afternoon. MM/25

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to 7 AM CDT Thursday for
     ALZ051>060-261>266.

     Flash Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for ALZ051>058.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT Wednesday for ALZ263>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to 7 AM CDT Thursday for
     FLZ201>206.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT Wednesday for FLZ201>206.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to 7 AM CDT Thursday for
     MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

     Flash Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for MSZ067.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Wednesday to 7 AM CDT Friday for
     GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ630>636-650-
     655.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
507 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

ALZ051-052-MSZ067-162245-
Choctaw AL-Washington AL-Wayne MS-
507 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

...A DEVELOPING INTENSE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES... SOUTHWESTERN CHOCTAW...NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND
SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

At 506 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located over Clara, or 7
miles southwest of Waynesboro, moving east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Waynesboro, Clara, Millry and Buckatunna.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3149 8879 3164 8878 3177 8830 3150 8829
TIME...MOT...LOC 2206Z 261DEG 25KT 3160 8873

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
622 PM CDT TUE MAR 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0149 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N SAVILLE             31.90N 86.34W
03/16/2021                   CRENSHAW           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WIND DAMAGE REPORTED ON OWENS FARM RD. A
            STORAGE TRAILER WAS OVERTURNED AND A STORAGE
            SHED WAS DESTROYED. A MOBILE HOME ALSO
            SUFFERED MINOR SIDING DAMAGE.

&&

JFB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
656 PM CDT TUE MAR 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 E TOXEY               31.91N 88.30W
03/16/2021                   CHOCTAW            AL   PUBLIC

            FLASH FLOODING CAUSING WATER TO COVER
            ROADWAY ON CHAPEL HILL ROAD FROM TOXEY TO
            WIMBERLY. REPORTED VIA PHOTO ON SOCIAL
            MEDIA.

&&

JEH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
746 PM CDT TUE MAR 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 N THOMASVILLE         31.94N 87.73W
03/16/2021                   CLARKE             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING ON BUTLER DR. NEAR
            THE INTERSECTION OF HWY 43 & HWY 5. REPORTS
            OF WATER COVERING ROADWAY FROM EMERGENCY
            MANAGEMENT.

&&

JEH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
755 PM CDT TUE MAR 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     FLASH FLOOD      PENNINGTON              32.21N 88.05W
03/16/2021                   CHOCTAW            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING ON OLD LOCK 2 RD.
            ROAD CLOSURE DUE TO WATER COVERING ROADWAY.

0900 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SE PENNINGTON         32.19N 88.04W
03/16/2021                   CHOCTAW            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING ON PORTIONS OF
            WALLACE MCNEELY RD. ROAD CLOSURES DUE TO
            WATER COVERING ROADWAYS.

0900 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 WNW BUTLER            32.10N 88.26W
03/16/2021                   CHOCTAW            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING NEAR BAILEY RD AND
            RIDERWOOD DR. ROADS ARE CLOSED DUE TO WATER
            COVERING ROADWAYS.

0900 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NNW BUTLER            32.11N 88.24W
03/16/2021                   CHOCTAW            AL   PUBLIC

            FLASH FLOODING ON PORTIONS OF TIMBERLANE RD.
            WATER COVERING ROADWAYS HAS BEEN REPORTED
            VIA VIDEO ON SOCIAL MEDIA.

0100 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SE PENNINGTON         32.19N 88.04W
03/16/2021                   CHOCTAW            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ONGOING FLASH FLOODING ON WALLACE MCNEELY
            RD. WITH WATER COVERING THE ROADWAY HAS
            RESULTED IN CONTINUED ROAD CLOSURE.

0100 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PENNINGTON              32.21N 88.05W
03/16/2021                   CHOCTAW            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ONGOING FLASH FLOODING WITH WATER COVERING
            THE ROADWAY HAS RESULTED IN CONTINUED ROAD
            CLOSURE.

0149 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N SAVILLE             31.90N 86.34W
03/16/2021                   CRENSHAW           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WIND DAMAGE REPORTED ON OWENS FARM RD. A
            STORAGE TRAILER WAS OVERTURNED AND A STORAGE
            SHED WAS DESTROYED. A MOBILE HOME ALSO
            SUFFERED MINOR SIDING DAMAGE.

0205 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 E KIMBROUGH           32.03N 87.52W
03/16/2021                   WILCOX             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLASH FLOODING ON WILLIE POWELL RD NEAR THE
            INTERSECTION OF HWY 162.

0205 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ALBERTA                 32.23N 87.41W
03/16/2021                   WILCOX             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF WATER COVERING ROAD ALONG CR29 IN
            THE ALBERTA AREA.

0530 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 N THOMASVILLE         31.94N 87.73W
03/16/2021                   CLARKE             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING ON BUTLER DR. NEAR
            THE INTERSECTION OF HWY 43 & HWY 5. REPORTS
            OF WATER COVERING ROADWAY FROM EMERGENCY
            MANAGEMENT.

0545 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 E TOXEY               31.91N 88.30W
03/16/2021                   CHOCTAW            AL   PUBLIC

            FLASH FLOODING CAUSING WATER TO COVER
            ROADWAY ON CHAPEL HILL ROAD FROM TOXEY TO
            WIMBERLY. REPORTED VIA PHOTO ON SOCIAL
            MEDIA.

&&