Areal Flood Advisory 83, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
135 PM CDT Sat Jul 3 2021

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday/...At noontime, an upper level trough
stretched southwest across the Southeast, with a stalled surface
front located near the I-10 corridor. Precipitable h20 values ranged
from around 1.5" north of Highway 84 to around 2" along the coast.
Showers and thunderstorms had been persistent overnight south of
the coast overnight, with rainshowers and a few thunderstorms forming
in the last hour over land areas. This activity will increase in
strength with this afternoon's heating, though persistent stratus
this morning has limited instability so far. Have bumped
temperatures down a bit over areas where the stratus was last to
erode. Am still expecting temperatures to top out in the upper 80s
to near 90 inland, mid 80s along the coast this afternoon.

A few strong to marginally severe storms are possible, mainly near
the coast. MLCapes are projected to rise to around 2000J/kg with
DCapes of 500-800 J/kg. Model soundings show elevated drier air over
areas inland from the coast, adding the possible of stronger
downbursts. The best combination of high instability and and drier
air is north of I-10 and south of Highway 84. Ponding of water over
our coastal counties are also possible in poor drainage areas, with
a soupier airmass lending to higher rainfall rates.

Tonight, after the day's convection shifts back offshore, am
expecting stratus to form along and north of the stalled
boundary, to roughly Highway 84. A drier airmass with clear skies
along and north of Highway 84 will allow for better radiational
cooling overnight with temperatures falling into the mid to upper
60s. South, low to mid 70s are expected with more persistent
cloud cover limiting radiational cooling overnight. With winds
over land areas being a general northerly, warming from the
coastal bays and near shore waters will be limited.

For Sunday, the northerly flow will help to move drier air a bit further
south, maintaining the higher rain chances along and south of the
coast. More sun on Sunday, especially after the stratus mixes out
combined with a bit drier airmass inland will allow temperatures
to rise to near or a bit above seasonal norms. Around 90 to the
low 90s expected north of I-10 with upper 80s closer to the coast.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...Persistent stratus along and north of a stalled
surface front near the I-10 corridor was slow to erode this
morning, with reported CIGS at mid/upper MVFR levels or higher at
17z. Scattered rainshowers have sprung up, mainly along the I-10
corridor. Isolated showers were noted over inland southeast
Mississippi. Am expecting this southward moving activity to
increase in strength and coverage through the afternoon. General
VFR conditions are expected with local low to mid MVFR conditions
in the heavier convection. Northerly winds 5 to 10 knots are
expected north of I-10, with south to southwest winds around 10
knots closer to the coast. An inland moving seabreeze will shift
the southerly winds further inland through the afternoon into the
evening. The convection will shift back offshore tonight, with
MVFR level stratus forming along and north of the stalled surface
front overnight. Am expecting the northern edge to remain south of
Highway 84. Winds will lighten, but remain a general northerly
overnight. After the stratus mixes out and the area heats, another
round of showers and thunderstorms are expected to form in the
late morning hours.
/16

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

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