Areal Flood Advisory 76, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1251 PM CDT Thu Jul 1 2021

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Friday/...Today features a similar tune to
yesterday with isolated showers and thunderstorms slowly
developing in the vicinity of the coast and propagating inland
this afternoon into early evening. Upper level ridging remains
rooted over the south-central U.S. with eastern periphery over the
southeastern U.S. today into Friday. An upper level trough pushes
in across the Great Lakes region tonight into Friday, digging into
the southeastern U.S. by Friday evening. At the surface, an area
of low pressure slowly develops over the northeastern U.S.
tonight, with a weak frontal boundary draped southwest into the
Tennessee Valley. This front will slowly work its way southeast,
serving as our focus for weather Friday into Friday night.

For today, scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms
should develop this afternoon into early evening across far
southwestern AL into the FL panhandle, with isolated to scattered
showers and storms elsewhere. These storms will slowly propagate
inland this evening before weakening and dissipating overnight
tonight. Any storms will have the potential to produce gusty
winds, very heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning. Some localized
flash flooding is possible with storms today given high precip
rates and PWATs exceeding 2 inches.

Heading into Friday, a similar evolution in the morning seems
probable with isolated showers and storms developing near the
coast in advance of an approaching cool front from the northwest.
As this front pushes into the CWA early afternoon, anticipate
widespread to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop along
it and track southeastward through the evening hours. These storms
will have the potential to produce gusty winds, very heavy
rainfall, and frequent lightning. Currently do not anticipate
severe thunderstorms, although given over 3,000j/kg of SBCAPE and
nearly 2,500j/kg MLCAPE and PWATs near 2.2 inches, sufficient
water loading of thunderstorm updrafts may be enough to foster
intense downdrafts with isolated damaging wind gust potential.
This will only be the case in the most intense updrafts, and don't
anticipate much more than an isolated chance for a severe wind
gust given moist mid-levels and weak shear. The bigger threat
from tomorrows storms will be in the form of heavy rainfall. Given
recent rainfall across the region, localized flash flooding has
proven to be slightly problematic in heavier thunderstorms the
past few days. Currently see no reason why tomorrows storms
wouldn't pose the same issues. Anticipating precipitation totals
of 1 to 2" over the region, however under the heaviest precip
cores that can persist over any given area may provide for
localized totals to 3 or even 4", particularly across far
southeastern MS into far southwestern AL and the FL panhandle.
Given the localized nature of the threat, it doesn't look like a
flash flood watch is needed at this time. This will be something
that has to be considered/monitored going forward if model
consensus increases on higher precipitation totals.

Temperatures should be moderated a bit today and tomorrow, with
highs generally in the middle 80's. Where the sun is out longest
and showers/storms stay at bay longest, can't rule out some spots
making it into the upper 80's. Overnight lows remain in the lower
to middle 70's. A LOW risk of rip currents remains in place
through Friday. MM/25

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...The aviation forecast remains contingent upon
evolution of showers and thunderstorms. Outside of precipitation,
generally VFR ceilings/visibility have returned to a majority of
the CWA. Under any showers and storms, ceilings and visibility
have dropped to MVFR/IFR categories. Anticipate this to be the
story this afternoon and evening as storm coverage increases. This
will likely once again be the case for Friday, although storm
coverage will be widespread to numerous (especially later in the
day). Southerly winds become westerly tomorrow generally between 5
and 10kts. MM/25

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

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