Areal Flood Advisory 71, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1242 PM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday/...Summer continues for our
region the rest of today through Thursday. An upper level trough
slowly slides southeast into the northeastern U.S. while upper
level ridging remains rooted in place over the southwestern
Atlantic and south-central U.S. during the period. With this, weak
northerly flow stays rooted over the area aloft. At the same
time, a surface high pressure centered over the southwestern
Atlantic stretches westward into the southeastern U.S. giving us
generally easterly low level flow. This gradually shifts to
southerly then westerly as the high shifts east. A weak surface
trough/low over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico is helping to
spark off afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the region,
particularly over coastal areas. Expect shower and thunderstorm
activity to continue to increase in coverage, with greatest
coverage expected in the vicinity of the I-10 corridor. Showers
and storms should decrease in coverage this evening, becoming
limited to offshore and immediate coastal areas through Thursday
morning. In typical Summer-time fashion, we repeat the day
Thursday with chance to likely showers and thunderstorms by the
afternoon hours for much of southwestern AL, FL panhandle, and
southeastern MS. Not anticipating much in the way for any severe
weather, but any of the strongest updrafts may be capable of
producing some small hail and/or strong wind gusts. Frequent
lightning and heavy rainfall remain possible with any storms today
and Thursday. Temperatures stay pleasant for this time of year,
with highs in the middle to upper 80's and lows in the lower 70's.
A Moderate risk of rip currents remains in place today, becoming a
low risk for Thursday. MM/25

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance... A typical summer-time forecast looks on track for
aviation weather. VFR conditions prevail with some low level
scattered to broken cumulus at times. MVFR to IFR ceilings and/or
visibility are possible in any given location that ends up with
the afternoon showers and thunderstorms. VFR conditions should
prevail through tonight with decreased precipitation chances
during the late evening into overnight hours. Thursday we rinse
and repeat, with afternoon showers and storms bringing potential
for localized temporary MVFR/IFR ceilings and/or visibility with
VFR prevailing. Winds slowly shift during the period, from
easterly today becoming southerly by Thursday afternoon, generally
less than 10kts. MM/25

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

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