Areal Flood Advisory 4, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1206 PM CST Tue Mar 2 2021

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday/...The latest radar and
satellite trends, along with short range physical model guidance
indicate a developing heavy rainband the past few hours that has
become centered across portions of south Central AL, interior
southwest AL and into interior SE MS. This band will be the focus
of this afternoon's heavier rainfall. As of this hour, radar has
estimated 1-2" of rainfall that has already occurred from Wilcox
county southwest to Wayne CO AL. The rainband is setting of where
the heaviest rain has already fallen (Dozier AL, to Evergreen, AL
to Mcintosh, AL to Wiggins, MS) and just to the south of that and
will gradually work its way slowly southeastward though dark.
Another 1.5-2.5" of rain could fall and some street flooding,
ponding of water in low lying areas and rises in creeks and
streams can be expected. Although it is likely that any SBCape
about zero will remain offshore, there could be enough upper level
forcing capable of producing marginal severe hail with some of the
stronger storms that develop. Dry air will shut off the heavy
rains from the northwest after sunset. Stay tuned for additional
updates on this situation. /23 JMM

The upper trough will continue its quick progression eastward and
the surface low will move off to our east. By Midnight, the
trough will begin to exit the area along with any linger light
rain. Conditions will dry out for Wednesday as moderate northerly
flow continues under cloudy skies. Lows tonight will be cool as
drier and cooler air funnels into the area. Lows will drop between
37 to 40 degrees northwest of I-65, and from 40 to 44 degrees to
the southeast. By Wednesday, continued cloud cover will likely
limit highs but some clearing could occur late in the afternoon.
For now highs are expected to climb to around 60 degrees, but if
the sun comes out earlier, some locations could get warmer. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...Rain will continue spreading eastward across the
entire northern Gulf coast region this afternoon as a surface low
pressure system tracks east-northeast from the north central Gulf
to the northwest Gulf. This moderate to locally heavy rain will
likely reduce visibilities to IFR levels, perhaps LIFR categories
at times. Ceilings will also remain very low, mostly in the LIFR
to IFR categories. Northeast winds, gusty at times, will shift to
the north by late afternoon, and could provide a challenge for
approaches and departures. /22

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Wednesday for GMZ633>636.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for GMZ630>632-650-
     655-670-675.

&&

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