Areal Flood Advisory 38, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1247 PM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Saturday/...An unsettled pattern continues
with an upper level trough gradually shifting east across the
northeastern U.S. tonight into Saturday. Over the south-central
Plains, a cutoff upper level low slowly gyrates over Texas through
Saturday. This is promoting deep layer southerly flow over the
region, and with a surface high pressure centered over the western
Atlantic, low level southeasterly to at times easterly flow
persists.

The aforementioned pattern is allowing for deep moisture
transport off the Gulf of Mexico over the region, and likewise our
PWAT's are around two inches and we are consistently sporting dew
points in the upper 60's to lower 70's. Extensive cloud cover
today has limited surface heating, with most locations maintaining
upper 70's to lower 80's, with the exception being over our far
eastern counties where some sunshine has peaked through and
temperatures have risen into the middle 80's. Forecast highs were
adjusted accordingly to account for the cloud cover. Showers and
thunderstorms are slowly developing and percolating this afternoon
amidst an environment characterized by SBCAPE in the 1,000 to
2,000j/kg range and effective shear values meagerly in the 20 to
25kt range. Expect this to be the case for most of today, and
potential for wet microbursts does exist for the remainder of the
afternoon. Expect shower and thunderstorm activity to wane by this
evening.

Tonight will feature cloudy skies with isolated showers and
perhaps a thunderstorm over the region, greatly reduced coverage
compared to earlier in the day. Overnight lows will be warm, a
tic warmer than the previous night with lows generally at or
around 70 degrees. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will once
again increase Saturday over the region as instability builds
into the 1,500 to 2,500j/kg range. Shear may be slightly better
Saturday as effective shear values reach the 20 to 30kt range. It
looks like another day of wet microburst potential lies ahead, and
should be rather similar to the risk from Friday given near two
inch PWATs, ample CAPE, and decent precip loading with
thunderstorms. Highs on Saturday should reach into the upper 70's
and lower 80's over the western half of the CWA of far
southwestern AL into southeastern MS. Middle to perhaps upper 80's
are possible further east where cloud cover may be a little less
and any precipitation takes longer to move into and develop in
these regions. A low risk of rip currents continues through the
period. MM/25

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...The aviation forecast is a bit of a pain for the
next 24 hours. Isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm
development is promoting pockets of MVFR ceilings to develop and
propagate in spots (more recently seen with the KMOB
observations). Given the propensity for these showers and
thunderstorms to randomly develop and percolate over the region,
anticipate times of MVFR ceilings and visibility when these move
over any given location. Otherwise, expect VFR ceilings and
visibility to prevail throughout the period. There is the
potential for wet microbursts today and Saturday, which could
result in sudden downbursts of heavy rainfall and strong wind
gusts. MM/25

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

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