Areal Flood Advisory 35, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
205 PM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...VFR conditions generally persist through the period
with lower ceilings/visibilities possible near thunderstorms this
afternoon. Southerly flow continues with wind gusts up to 20kts
possible this afternoon near the coast. Winds become light and
variable overnight and another round of patchy fog is possible
along the coast by early Thursday morning. 07/mb

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1013 AM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021/

.NEAR TERM UPDATE...Forecast remains on track so far this
morning. Showers persist generally west of the I-65 corridor at
this hour. Expect an uptick in convection across the
aforementioned area as we head in the afternoon hours as MLCAPE
increases to nearly 2000 J/kg in a zone of deep moisture with
PWATs of 1.8-2.0 inches. A few strong to marginally severe storms
are possible with the potential for strong wind gusts and heavy
rain. After modifying RAP soundings for the northwestern portion
of our area, the wet microburst potential is solidly in the
moderate category this afternoon. Rip current risk remains low for
today. 07/mb

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 707 AM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021/

NEAR TERM UPDATE...Areas of fog have developed across portions of
the western FL panhandle and adjacent south central AL early this
morning, with visibility locally reduced to 1/4 mile in the
Milton, Crestview, Florala, Andalusia, Evergreen vicinity. Fog
should gradually lift over the next couple of hours. Will maintain
mention of fog in the forecast through around 8 AM. A zone of
deeper moisture continues to extend across southeastern portions
of LA/MS and into interior southwest AL early this morning, while
shortwave perturbations embedded within southwest flow aloft is
aiding in ascent across this region. Scattered to locally numerous
rain showers continue to develop over western portions of our area
with this pattern early this morning and the current POP configuration
of 40-60% northwest of a Lucedale to Coffeeville line looks reasonable,
though we may increase these a bit looking at the latest radar
trends. We are still expecting scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms to develop across southeast MS and southwest AL this
afternoon as the atmosphere becomes increasingly unstable over
this portion of the region underneath continued moist southwest
flow aloft. As previously mentioned, a few strong to marginally
severe storms with potential for localized strong wind gusts and
locally heavy rainfall will be possible with the stronger cells
that develop over our interior southeast MS/southwest AL counties
this afternoon into early this evening as MLCAPE values increase
to around 2000 J/KG along with modest deep layer shear and
precipitable water values between 1.8 and 2 inches. /21

AVIATION...
12Z issuance...Localized LIFR to VLIFR ceilings and fog have
developed across portions of the western FL panhandle and south
central AL this morning and these conditions may persist for the
next 1-2 hours before improving to VFR. Scattered to numerous SHRA
and isolated TSRA with associated localized MVFR conditions will
spread across southeast MS and interior southwest AL early this
morning. The unsettled pattern continues over southeast MS and
southwest AL into this afternoon/early evening with potential for
additional scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA, some with localized
MVFR or lower conditions with heavy rain/reduced visibility and
gusty winds. /21

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

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