Areal Flood Advisory 241, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1229 PM CDT Sun Sep 19 2021

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Monday/...A weak upper level low
centered over the ARLATEX region will lift north-northeastward
through this evening, becoming centered over western Illinois by
midnight. However, the base of the upper shortwave that housed the
departing low will remain as far south as the northwest Gulf of
Mexico. This shortwave will eventually become broader and weaker
through the remainder of the near term as it moves very slowly
eastward over the lower Mississippi River region, and a longwave
trough digs southeast over the Northern Plains. PWATs will remain
from 1.9 to 2.2" through Sunday evening, and then gradually lower
from west to east to between 1.7 to 1.9" late Sunday night through
Monday afternoon.

Generally can expect a diurnally driven convective pattern with
offshore showers and thunderstorms during the overnight hours
gradually propagating onshore during the day, increasing in
coverage inland through the afternoon hours. We have already seen
an increase in convective coverage this morning along the coast,
and will continue to see this gradually spread inland as we head
into the afternoon hours. Showers and thunderstorms will be very
slow moving, to nearly stationary at times, and will continue to
pose a heavy rainfall threat. Given the antecedent saturated soil
moisture, heavy rainfall rates will result in excessive runoff and
potential for flash flooding. Given the overall limitation in
coverage of deep/intense convection, the flash flooding threat
should remain generally isolated. Convective coverage will
gradually decrease by the evening hours and continue to shift
inland to our far inland counties of southeastern MS and
southwestern AL. Highs today will generally be in the lower to
middle 80's.

Overnight tonight, at best isolated convective coverage is
expected with loss of daytime heating, and better coverage
diurnally shifts to the gulf marine waters and immediate coast.
Temperatures will generally fall into the lower to middle 70's.

Heading into the day Monday, convective coverage will be slightly
less and more focused inland as better forcing shifts north and
northeast. A scattered to at times numerous coverage of showers
and thunderstorms is expected, particularly over inland areas of
southeastern MS and inland southwestern AL. A low end threat for
flash flooding will continue as storms will continue to be slow
moving, heavy rain producers. High temperatures will reach the
middle 80's for most locations. MM/25

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be
diurnally driven with late morning to early evening featuring best
coverage today and Monday. Outside of showers and storms, expect
generally VFR conditions to prevail during the day. Underneath and
in the vicinity of showers and storms, MVFR to IFR conditions will
prevail. Overnight tonight, with moist low levels anticipate
another round of MVFR to IFR ceilings to settle in, mainly after
the midnight hour. After sunrise, ceilings lift back to MVFR to
VFR for the remainder of the day. Once again any showers and
storms may result in IFR conditions late morning through early
evening. MM/25

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1213 PM CDT SUN SEP 19 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 AM     WATER SPOUT      7 SE ORIOLE BEACH       30.30N 87.01W
09/19/2021                   GMZ655             FL   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            WATERSPOUT REPORTED BY COUNTY OFFICIAL ABOUT
            ONE MILE OFFSHORE OF THE PCOLA BEACH.

&&

JEH