Areal Flood Advisory 2, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1149 PM CST Wed Feb 17 2021

.AVIATION...
06Z issuance...An area of rain will shift eastward across the area
overnight, with some showers and storms possible over coastal
portions of the western Florida panhandle. The precipitation
diminishes in coverage over the western portion of the area late
tonight, although isolated patches of light rain will be possible
into Thursday morning. Dry conditions are expected west of I-65
by late Thursday afternoon. Further to the east, the coverage of
precipitation diminishes more gradually, with mostly dry
conditions developing towards the end of the TAF period. Other
than a southeasterly flow over much of the western Florida
panhandle for much of the night, a northerly flow prevails over
the area through the period. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1015 PM CST Wed Feb 17 2021/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday night/...A large and broad upper
trof located mostly over the central states gradually amplifies
while advancing eastward, with the axis of the upper trof becoming
oriented from the Mississippi River valley to the western Great
Lakes. An associated surface low is currently located in Breton
Sound (waters immediately east of extreme southeast Louisiana)
with a warm front extending eastward across the extreme northeast
Gulf. A surface trof also extends east-northeastward from the
surface low into part of the far western Florida panhandle. As the
upper trof slowly amplifies and advances eastward, the surface
low advances east-northeastward essentially along the surface trof
into the western Florida panhandle near or shortly after
midnight, then moves east of the area before 12Z Thursday. The
warm front extending eastward from the surface low looks to
meanwhile advance into the immediate coastal portion of Alabama
for a short period from roughly 11 pm to 1 am (before moving back
offshore as a cold front) then lifts into the coastal portions of
the western Florida panhandle from 1 am to 5 am before likewise
moving back offshore as a cold front. 0-6 km bulk shear values of
55 to 60 knots will be present in the warm sector with 0-1 km
helicity values potentially to 300 m2/s2. Within the warm sector,
some severe storm development will be possible, with this risk of
severe storms ending by or shortly before 12z Thursday. Will have
categorical pops shifting eastward across the area overnight, with
coverage diminishing over the western portion of the area late
tonight. As an overrunning flow diminishes in the wake of the
surface low exiting to the east on Thursday, will have dry
conditions developing along and west of I-65 by the afternoon
while further to the east pops diminish to mostly chance pops,
then dry conditions develop over this portion as well Thursday
night. Lows tonight range from the mid 30s over Choctaw and Wayne
counties to around 60 near Destin, Florida. Based on model
soundings, am expecting precipitation to remain as rain even where
the colder low temperatures are expected (Choctaw and Wayne
counties). Highs on Thursday range from the mid 40s to lower 50s
along and west of I-65 to mid 50s to lower 60s east of I-65. Lows
Thursday night range from the mid 20s to lower 30s along and west
of I-65 to the mid to upper 30s east of I-65. A high risk of rip
currents continues along area beaches through Thursday night. /29

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for GMZ633>636.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Friday for GMZ631-632-650-
     655-670-675.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ630.

&&

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