Areal Flood Advisory 169, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
434 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Sunday/...Broad long-wave
troughing over the northeastern U.S. into southern Canada remains
through the near term period along with the southwest Atlantic
ridge in the upper levels that stretches into the southeastern
states. Our area will be located on the western periphery of this
ridge, which sets the stage for Fred to gradually work its way
northwest into the east-central Gulf by Sunday. Overall surface
pattern reflects ridging to the north of the area as well as weak
surface ridging over the southwestern Atlantic keeping us in
generally easterly to southerly surface flow.

For today, a weakening upper level low over the northern Gulf will
continue to shift northwest and weaken through the near term
period. This is aiding in some weak positive vorticity advection
over the area, and helping to keep PoPs slightly elevated today
and tonight. Expect few to scattered coverage of showers and
thunderstorms over much of the region this afternoon and evening.
Given meager MLCAPE generally near or below 1,000j/kg (nearer
1,500 along the immediate coast), I do not anticipate much in the
way of stronger thunderstorms. With that said, some gusty winds
can't be ruled out in any clusters of storms similar to what we
saw yesterday afternoon into early evening. After sunset, bulk of
shower and thunderstorm activity shifts offshore.

Sunday will be a more convectively active day. First signs of
Fred's presence in the Gulf start to show up with increasing
moisture content throughout the column. Most shower and
thunderstorm activity will track into the area from southeast to
northwest. Likewise, instability greatly increases for Sunday with
MLCAPE values approaching 1,500 to 2,000j/kg and SBCAPE values
over 2,000j/kg. Increasing subtle forcing owing to whatever is
left of the upper low and the approach of Fred will help increase
convective coverage. Expecting likely PoPs over the entire
region, with best chances likely over the Florida panhandle. There
will likely be enough dry air still present in the mid levels
that stronger downbursts with convection remain possible,
particularly given DCAPE values approach 1,000j/kg. Storms may
also produce heavy rainfall, however any flood threat should
remain limited at best unless there is extensive training of
thunderstorms over the same area.

Temperatures will continue to rise into the lower to perhaps
middle 90's for spots this afternoon before dropping into the
lower to middle 70's tonight. Given greater convective coverage
tomorrow, temperatures will be held down in the middle to upper
80's for most locations. MM/25

&&

.SHORT TERM /Sunday night Through Tuesday night/...Fred is the
main concern and will drive all impacts through the period. The
track forecast for Fred is really uncertain since it has weakened
to a just a remnant system, and it's not quite certain where the
center of the circulation is. The steering flow over the Gulf is
more certain and will favor Fred taking a northwestward then
northerly movement towards the north central Gulf coast. So, there
is high confidence in the steering flow, but where Fred organizes
within the steering flow will of course determine where it
ultimately ends up somewhere along the northern Gulf coast, thus
making the ultimately landfall location for Fred a low confidence
forecast. The latest track from the National Hurricane Center has
Fred regaining tropical storm strength while traversing the
central Gulf, then making landfall near the Mississippi/Alabama
coast Monday evening. Despite the uncertainties with the movement
of Fred, there is sufficient confidence that High Rip Current
Risk will begin early Sunday evening and run through late Tuesday
night. Based on forecast surf heights (driven by long period swell
and an anticipated onshore flow), we have also issued a High Surf
Advisory from early Sunday evening through Sunday night. There is
also the potential for minor coastal flooding of 1-2 feet mainly
along the western Florida panhandle, which could be adjusted
depending on the track forecast for Fred. The heaviest rainfall
amounts associated with Fred look to be east of I-65 and
especially over the western Florida panhandle. Rainfall totals
look to be 2 to 4 inches east of I-65 with amounts of 5+ inches
over the western Florida panhandle. A Flash Flood Watch may be
issued later tonight. /29

&&

.EXTENDED TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...The remnants of Fred
continue to move well inland on Wednesday with a shortwave trough
over the Mid-Mississippi River Valley attempting to move into the
region from the northwest. However, ridging and high pressure aloft
begins to build into the area helping to prevent this feature from
digging into our region. Moving into Thursday, the aforementioned
ridging and high pressure begins to dominate the southeast CONUS
through the rest of the period. Even though heights increase over
the region through the period, PWATs still remain rather high over
the area (~1.9 inches or higher), enough to support higher rain
chances during each afternoon. Expecting convection to generally
follow the typical diurnal pattern along sea-breeze developments and
any outflow boundaries generated by previous convection each
afternoon, with coverage shifting offshore overnight in association
with land-breeze development. One concern towards the end of the
extended will be Amazing Grace. As of now, guidance is suggesting
that the ridging over the southeast will be strong enough to keep
Grace at bay and track across the Gulf towards the TX Gulf coast;
however, we all know that mother nature has a mind of her own so
lets not "dis-Grace" the fact that we could potentially have another
storm late in the extended to worry about.

As far as temps are concerned through the period, highs are expected
to range in the upper 80s to low 90s through the period. Lows are
expected to be in the low to mid 70s inland with upper 70s to low
80s along the immediate coast. JEH/88

&&

.MARINE...Based on the latest track from the National Hurricane
Center regarding the Remnants of Fred, Fred is expected to
strengthen to tropical storm strength while traversing the central
Gulf on Sunday, then later make landfall near the
Mississippi/Alabama coast Monday evening. Considering this track,
we have issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the 0-60 nm portion of
our marine area due to winds of 25 to 35 knots with gusts up to 55
knots, along with seas building to 11 to 16 feet.  For more
information regarding Fred please refer to National Hurricane
Center advisories. /29

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from Sunday evening through late Tuesday
     night for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 6 AM CDT Tuesday for
     ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Sunday evening through late Tuesday
     night for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Surf Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 6 AM CDT Tuesday for
     FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Tropical Storm Watch for GMZ650-655-670-675.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
401 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

FLZ203-205-142200-
Okaloosa Inland FL-Santa Rosa Inland FL-
401 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of west central Okaloosa
and central Santa Rosa Counties through 500 PM CDT...

At 359 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Crestview to 8 miles north of Point Baker.
Movement was southwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Crestview, Baker, Point Baker and Roeville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3055 8658 3063 8700 3064 8700 3064 8701
      3065 8704 3068 8727 3071 8727 3091 8702
      3080 8651
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 045DEG 7KT 3074 8662 3082 8706

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MM

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