Areal Flood Advisory 101, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1005 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday/...An upper level trough over the
north-central Plains sweeps east across the Ohio Valley and into
the northeastern U.S. during the period, helping to sweep Elsa
north and east well away from our CWA. General weak troughing will
be present over our area, a combination of the weakness left
behind from the previous trough and the aforementioned one moving
in. At the surface, generally lower pressures over the
southeastern U.S. will be present thanks to Elsa to the east
Wednesday, however in its wake high pressure over the southwestern
Atlantic starts to nose its way into our region by Thursday.

PWATs will remain high through the near term period, generally
between 2.1 and 2.3 inches. This will foster an environment
favorable for heavy rainfall out of any shower and thunderstorm
that develops. Although widespread flash flooding potential isn't
expected, scattered to numerous slow-moving showers and
thunderstorms each day will pose the risk for isolated areas of
flash flooding. This is particularly the case in any areas that
have been inundated with heavy rainfall recently. Generally noting
modest positive vorticity advection (PVA) aloft across the CWA
throughout the period serving as a subtle lifting mechanism across
the region during the period. The combination of far reaching
outer bands from Elsa, weak troughiness/PVA aiding in lift, and
abundant moisture in the area will foster widespread coverage of
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into evening. More
isolated to scattered coverage can be expected overnight tonight
and again Wednesday night. With Elsa leaving the picture for
Thursday, anticipate scattered to widespread coverage, although
not quite to the degree that is expected Wednesday. Given weak
shear and modest CAPE each day, currently do not anticipate any
severe weather. Some gusty winds are possible in any of the
heavier precipitation cores, along with potential for frequent
lightning.

Given the greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday,
I have opted to lower the forecast highs a couple degrees to
account for this. Generally expect lower to middle 80's for most
spots, although a couple upper 80 readings can't be ruled out
where shower and thunderstorm coverage is low into the early/mid
afternoon hours. Overnight lows will generally be the same, lower
to middle 70's both tonight and Wednesday night. Thursdays highs
will be a bit higher with less shower/thunderstorm coverage,
featuring highs in the middle to upper 80's. A 90 degree reading
can't be ruled out in the more favored hot spots inland.

A High Risk of rip currents begins tonight and continues through
the near term period as long period swell associated with Elsa
begins affecting area beaches. Additionally, a brief rise in surf
heights is expected to occur on Wednesday. Given potential for 5ft
surf and associated breakers, a High Surf Advisory has been issued
Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening across the coastal FL
panhandle and coastal Baldwin county. MM/25

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for ALZ266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for FLZ202-
     204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

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