Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

East Central Florida Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
940 AM EDT Sat Oct 9 2021

.DISCUSSION...

...High Risk of Dangerous Rip Currents This Weekend...
...A Few Strong Storms Southern Areas...

Current...In the wake of the trough feature which has passed over a
portion of the area early today, precipitable water values range
from around 1.4 inches across Volusia county to 1.7 inches over the
Treasure cst. Additionally, drying aloft will preclude notable rain
chcs today across northern interior sites, generally west and north
of Metro Orlando, with afternoon PoPs remaining likely across the
Treasure Coast areas to Lake Okee this aftn. Pockets of lower
stratus will persist through around 10-1030 AM.

Today-Tonight...Scattered lightning storms, with a few strong storms
remain possible as upper level support in the form of forecast temps
aloft -10 deg C at 500mb, with DCAPE values above 1000 J/kg suggest
strong wind gusts of 50mph or greater along with small hail from
around Indian River Co southward. Heavy rainfall is likely across
the higher forecast coverage areas, with slower moving cells
potentially bringing producing 2+" in a short period of time.

Temperatures today will reach the mid 80s in the afternoon, dropping
to the upper 60s to lower 70s at night.

&&

.AVIATION...
Stratus will largely mix to SC clouds by ~10 AM. By the afternoon,
drier air filtering south behind the boundary should prohibit
SHRA/TSRA north of KVRB, with highest confidence for the Treasure
Coast terminals. Scattered to numerous showers and some embedded
thunderstorms expected after 18Z, with TEMPO likely to be included
with the next TAF package. Generally VFR outside of convection this
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-Tonight...West to NW winds of 10-15 knots this morning will
veer more northerly into aftn with the passage of a frontal boundary
and high pressure building across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Seas
persist at 2-4 ft. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are
expected over the local Atlantic waters today mainly S of Sebastian
Inlet with additional development psbl over the Gulf Stream late
today and through the overnight hours.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...The St. Johns River at Astor is forecast to remain
at to above Action Stage through the middle of next week. Some
additional heavy rainfall is possible over the basin this afternoon,
mainly over the more distant headwaters in Indian River County with
northerly winds countering streamflow as well.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

JP/JC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1112 AM EDT Sat Oct 9 2021

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-092200-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
1112 AM EDT Sat Oct 9 2021

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms are expected
mainly south of Osceola county to Sebastian Inlet. Strong to
marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon,
producing wind gusts over 50 mph, frequent lightning strikes,
small hail and heavy downpours. Storm motion will be towards the
east to southeast at 10 mph.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
Slower moving showers and thunderstorms will lead to rainfall
amounts up to 2 to 3 inches. High totals in a short period of
time will lead to localized nuisance flooding of roadways and
other low lying areas of the Treasure Coast to Lake Okeechobee.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A High Risk of life threatening rip currents will be present at
all east central FL beaches this weekend. Use caution in the surf
zone and swim at your own risk.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Offshore moving showers and thunderstorms will be capable of
producing wind gusts over 35 knots this afternoon. The threat of
storms will be present across the local Atlantic waters south of
Sebastian Inlet.

.WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
A brief waterspout will be possible over the near shore Atlantic,
and along and near the Intracoastal Waterway south of Sebastian
Inlet, including Lake Okeechobee. If you see a funnel cloud or
waterspout start to develop, give it a wide berth, and, if
possible contact the local Coast Guard, law enforcement, or
emergency management personnel, so that it can be relayed to the
National Weather Service in Melbourne.

.RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
Heavy rainfall over the middle Saint Johns River basin Saturday led
to a brief increase to Minor Flood Stage at Astor, but levels
have since returned to Action Stage. The river at Astor is
forecast to remain within Action Stage through the middle of next
week.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
Scattered showers and lightning storms will be possible each day
in the week, although drier air will begin to limit coverage. A
high to moderate risk risk of rip currents will be present at the
coast on early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should monitor the weather and self activate in the event
of any storm warnings over the Treasure Coast.

Pendergrast

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
253 PM EDT Sat Oct 9 2021

FLZ059-064-091930-
St. Lucie FL-Martin FL-
253 PM EDT Sat Oct 9 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern St.
Lucie and northeastern Martin Counties through 330 PM EDT...

At 252 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Walton, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Port Saint Lucie, Walton, Stuart, Palm City and Saint Lucie Nuclear
Power Plant.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Conditions are favorable for the development of weak, brief funnel
clouds. These types of funnel clouds are harmless, but on rare
occasions they can briefly touch down, producing wind gusts over 50
mph. If a funnel cloud is spotted move indoors and report your
sighting to the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2729 8039 2737 8025 2712 8011 2711 8034
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 331DEG 12KT 2727 8030

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Combs