Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
922 AM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021

.DISCUSSION...

...Peak Heat Indices 101-106F Today...
...Locally Heavy Rainfall in a Few Storms this Afternoon/Evening...

Current-Tonight...The Atlantic high pressure ridge axis remains
suppressed across south Florida providing for early morning, light,
SWRLY winds across ECFL. The light winds will become ESE/SE near the
coast by early afternoon with sea breeze formation and slow
penetration inland into mid/late afternoon. The 915 MHZ USAF Cape
wind profilers show a dominant SWRLY direction above the surface
thru 10.0 ft, though speeds average fairly light, generally 5-10
kts. Storm steering flow this afternoon/evening will be light
southerly (5 kts), though with such a light component
larger/stronger boundary collisions will allow for storm movement to
be erratic at times. PWAT values will average well in excess of 2
inches areawide. Temperatures at 500 mb remain fairly warm at -5.5C
to -6.5C. While lapse rates are not that impressive, parameters will
be in place for SCT-NMRS (50-60pct) convection. A few storms could
be strong with primary threats of frequent cloud to ground lightning
strikes, gusty winds of 40 to 45 mph and torrential downpours
leading to isolated rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches in some
locations. This may cause localized flooding of roads and other
poorly drained urban and low-lying areas.

Lingering early evening convection will weaken and/or move offshore
by midnight. Max temps L-M90s with peak heat indices 101-106F. Mins
in the M70s for most areas.

&&

.AVIATION...Light morning SWRLY flow will transition to ESE/SE along
the coast with sea breeze formation early this afternoon. Due to a
slightly stronger (overall) WRLY flow through the atmospheric column
showers/storms will be highest in coverage across the eastern
peninsula late day/early evening. Already have inherited some
"Vicinity"/"Tempo" wording to deal with this and will update as
necessary. Coverage will range from SCT-NMRS as we venture into late
day.

&&

.MARINE...Current-Tonight...Morning SSW flow around 10 kts will
become S/SSE (ESE at coast) this afternoon. The wind component will
switch back to SSW/SW this evening and overnight. While sea breeze
formation at the coast will be early in the afternoon, showers and
storms could develop by mid to late afternoon lasting into the
evening and pose a threat across the Intracoastal Waterway and very
near shore Atlc waters. Storm steering flow will be out of the south
or SSW and could be erratic at times due to the weak nature (5 kts).
Seas generally 2-3 ft but could build to 4 ft well offshore (north
of Cape) and, of course, will be locally higher invof stronger
storms.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

Sedlock/Negron/Haley

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
950 AM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-280000-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
950 AM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A continued very moist south to southwest wind flow will lead to
the development of numerous afternoon showers and lightning
storms across east central Florida, mainly from late afternoon
through early evening.

Today's storms will move north to northeast at around 5 mph. The
strongest storms will be capable of producing frequent cloud to
ground lightning strikes, torrential downpours, and wind gusts
of 40 to 45 mph. Move indoors to safety at the first sign of
threatening skies, or if you hear thunder.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
Today's more intense, slow moving storms will be capable of
producing rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches in some locations.
This may cause localized flooding of roads and other poorly
drained urban and low lying areas. Never drive into an area
where water covers the road.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
The threat remains for thunderstorm wind gusts to around 35 knots on
inland lakes, the Intracoastal Waterway and near shore Atlantic
waters during the late afternoon and early evening. Move to safe
harbor in advance of storms today.

.EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT...
The combination of high temperatures in the lower to mid 90s with
high humidity will lead to afternoon heat index values between 101
and 106 degrees across east central Florida. If you will be engaged
in any outdoor activity today be sure to remain well-hydrated and
take frequent indoor rest breaks.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
There will be a Moderate Risk of dangerous rip currents at the
central Florida Atlantic beaches again today. While rip currents
will be present all day, the threat will be highest from 200 PM
through 800 PM due to tidal effects. Always swim within sight of a
lifeguard and never enter the water alone.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
Scattered afternoon and early evening lightning storms are forecast
each day through next weekend. Frequent cloud to ground lightning
strikes, torrential downpours, and wind gusts up to 40 mph will
be the main threats. Localized poor drainage flooding is possible
in areas that receive heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed this afternoon and tonight.
However, spotters are requested to report any rainfall amounts in
excess of two inches, or observation of flooding to the National
Weather Service in Melbourne.

Sedlock/Cristaldi

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
315 PM EDT TUE JUL 27 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 ESE FELLSMERE         27.75N 80.55W
07/27/2021                   Indian River       FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS FUNNEL CLOUD ABOUT 3 MILES WEST OF
            LIBERTY MAGNET SCHOOL IN SEBASTIAN. COULD NOT TELL IF IT
            WAS TOUCHING THE GROUND BUT QUICKLY DISSIPATED.

&&

JRS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
315 PM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021

FLZ047-054-271945-
Southern Brevard County-Indian River-
315 PM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL INDIAN RIVER AND
SOUTHEASTERN BREVARD COUNTIES...

At 314 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Roseland. The
storm is nearly stationary.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Palm Bay, Sebastian, Vero Beach, Fellsmere and Roseland.

Funnel clouds can occasionally touch down and produce brief small
tornadoes. Move indoors and stay away from windows.

LAT...LON 2765 8066 2792 8065 2792 8044 2788 8042
      2764 8041
TIME...MOT...LOC 1914Z 253DEG 2KT 2783 8051

KN