Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
941 AM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Deep layer ESE/SE flow has advected deeper moisture into east
central Florida with the morning observed sounding from XMR coming
in with 1.88 inches of precipitable water, and quite a bit of
shower activity is already being seen over the Atlantic and along
the coast so far this morning as a result. There have also been a
few lightning strikes just offshore of the Space and Treasure
Coasts and expect a few storms to start developing closer to the
coast in the next hour or two with showers and storms then
expanding inland through the rest of this morning and afternoon.

Overall rain chances look good for this afternoon with "likely"
PoPs across the interior, but based on trends have increased rain
chances along the coast this morning and also expanded a 20-30%
PoP inland toward the Deland-Sanford-Orlando to account for
short-term guidance and radar trends.

Coastal areas may see a slight decrease in rain chances this
afternoon behind the subsidence of the diffuse seabreeze, but the
10-15 kt of onshore flow could still push some convection onshore
from the Atlantic, especially as we get closer to the evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR outside of precipitation. Fairly high coverage of SHRA from
FPR to TIX this morning, and short-fused TEMPO restrictions for
MVFR ceilings/visibilities could be needed to handle this
activity. May also need to include VCTS a little later this
morning. Showers and storms will then continue to expand inland
through the morning and afternoon, and will likely need to start
VCSH/VCTS earlier across the interior terminals with some showers
already developing west of I-95. Could be a lull in activity for
the coastal terminals this afternoon before the onshore flow
starts bringing some showers and maybe a storm back toward the
coast this evening/early overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-Tonight (modified previous)...The high pressure system
located offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast will remain in place
through the time period. Scattered showers and lightning storms
expected across all the Atlantic waters today, with the greatest
coverage being this late this morning and afternoon. Cell movement
will be towards the coast around 10-15 KT. Onshore flow continues
with SE winds around 10-15 KT. Seas will be 3-4 ft, with seas up
to 5 ft early this morning in the far offshore waters of Volusia,
before decreasing to 3-4 ft across all Atlantic waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  74  86  72 /  30  20  60  30
MCO  90  74  91  73 /  60  20  60  30
MLB  88  76  86  75 /  50  20  60  30
VRB  89  74  86  72 /  50  20  60  40
LEE  90  74  92  73 /  70  30  60  30
SFB  90  75  90  73 /  50  20  60  30
ORL  91  76  91  73 /  60  20  60  30
FPR  89  74  86  72 /  40  20  60  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

Combs/Fehling

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1031 AM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-292000-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
1031 AM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms will develop
and move westward across the area today, with greatest potential
for storms being across the interior. The main threats with any
storms that develop will be occasional to frequent cloud-to-
ground lightning strikes and gusty winds up to 45 mph. Storm
motion will be towards the west around 5 to 10 mph.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
Some storms may produce heavy downpours of 1 to 2 inches in a
short duration, with locally higher amounts possible that could
lead to minor flooding and pounding of water on roadways and
within poor drainage areas, especially if multiple rounds of
showers and storms occur

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
Weather and ocean conditions will produce a Moderate Risk of
dangerous rip currents at all central Florida Atlantic beaches
today. Only swim near a lifeguard and never swim alone.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Scattered to numerous storms will be possible today, mainly
across inland lakes. Any storms that form will be able to produce
wind gusts near 35 knots as they move toward the west around 10
mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
Scattered to numerous afternoon showers and lightning storms are
forecast through the weekend and into early next week, as deeper
moisture returns to the area. Cloud- to- ground lightning strikes,
locally heavy rain, and gusty winds will be the main threats.

A moderate rip current risk is expected across the beaches of
east central Florida into early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

Combs/Watson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1201 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

FLZ045-053-144-291700-
Osceola FL-Orange FL-Southern Lake County FL-
1201 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN ORANGE AND
NORTHWESTERN OSCEOLA COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM EDT...

At 1201 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Saint Cloud, moving northwest at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Orlando, Kissimmee, Ocoee, Winter Garden and Saint Cloud.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2859 8153 2829 8115 2817 8137 2820 8152
      2826 8156 2826 8166 2835 8166 2835 8173
TIME...MOT...LOC 1601Z 122DEG 22KT 2823 8131

Fehling

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1243 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

FLZ044-144-291730-
Northern Lake County FL-Southern Lake County FL-
1243 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL LAKE COUNTY UNTIL
130 PM EDT...

At 1243 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Leesburg Airport, or over Lake Griffin, moving west at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Leesburg, Tavares, Lady Lake, Lake Griffin and Lisbon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2896 8195 2896 8173 2894 8171 2875 8177
      2868 8195
TIME...MOT...LOC 1643Z 100DEG 16KT 2883 8181

Fehling