Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1050 AM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021

.UPDATE...
Another convectively active day expected, with high shower and
thunderstorm chances in the forecast for this afternoon and
evening. A rather moist airmass remains in place across central
Florida, south of a stalled frontal boundary near the FL/GA border,
with morning soundings at TBW/XMR showing PW values around
1.8-2.0". Weak trough axis aloft will continue to push slowly
southward, with ridge axis lifting a bit northward toward the
Lake Okeechobee region by late day. This will keep a weak offshore
flow across east central FL, allowing the east coast sea breeze to
form and shift inland through the afternoon.

Some lingering mid/high level cloud cover continues this morning,
especially from Melbourne south, which may delay heating and
storm development slightly. However, should still see enough
breaks in the clouds and sufficient daytime heating (highs
reaching the upper 80s/low 90s) for scattered to numerous showers
and storms to form with the inland moving sea breeze boundaries
this afternoon. Boundary collisions are favored over the interior
through late afternoon, leading to greatest storm coverage
initially inland. However, a west-northwest flow will shift
convection and debris cloud cover/rainfall back toward the coast.
Have therefore kept high PoPs, around 70 percent, across the
entire area today.

Locally heavy rainfall, frequent lightning strikes and strong
wind gusts up to 40-50 mph will be the main concern today with
any stronger convection today. However, can't rule out a severe
storm or two producing damaging straight line winds.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions this morning, with initial shower and
thunderstorm development possible as the east coast sea breeze
forms and moves inland. Greatest storm coverage will be into the
mid-late afternoon as sea breeze boundaries continue toward the
interior and collide through late day, with any convection and
debris cloud rainfall shifting back toward the coast and offshore
through the evening. TEMPO IFR/MVFR conditions and variable strong
gusty winds will be possible with any storms today, mainly between
18-24Z today. Although some of this activity will likely linger
into the late evening hours, as it has done over the past couple
days.

&&

.MARINE...S/SW winds the morning will gradually become E/SE into
the afternoon with the developing east coast sea breeze. Wind
speeds will be around 10 knots or less with seas 2-3 feet. Main
concern will again be higher coverage of showers and storms
developing over land areas that will push toward the coast and
offshore this afternoon and evening, producing lightning strikes
and gusty winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  72  86  72 /  70  40  60  30
MCO  90  73  88  73 /  70  50  70  20
MLB  88  73  86  74 /  70  40  60  30
VRB  88  73  86  71 /  70  40  60  30
LEE  90  73  87  72 /  70  50  70  20
SFB  90  73  87  72 /  70  50  70  30
ORL  91  74  89  73 /  70  50  70  20
FPR  89  73  87  71 /  70  40  70  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

Weitlich/Fehling/Haley

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1131 AM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-232215-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
1131 AM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Isolated lightning storms should develop along or just inland from
the coast early this afternoon, sparked by the east coast sea
breeze. Additional lightning storms along the west coast sea
breeze will move east to southeast up to 10 to 15 mph across the
peninsula this afternoon and collide with the east coast sea
breeze over inland east central Florida. Wind gusts near 50 mph
will occur in the stronger storms along with frequent lightning
strikes. An isolated storm may become severe with damaging winds
near 60 mph and hail. If thunder is heard, don't press your luck.
Seek shelter in an enclosed building or automobile.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
A moist and unstable airmass will combine with slower storm
motions to produce a threat for very heavy rain, with 2 to 3
inches possible in just a couple hours this afternoon and early
evening. Temporary flooding is likely for areas that experience
such rain rates, especially urbanized, low lying and poor drainage
locations. Most areas though will receive an inch or less.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
There is a Moderate risk of dangerous, life-threatening rip
currents at all central Florida Atlantic beaches today. Always
swim within sight of a lifeguard, and never enter the surf alone.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Lightning storms will pose a threat to boaters on the inland
lakes, intracoastal and nearshore Atlantic waters this afternoon
and early evening. A few storms will produce wind gusts of 35 to
45 knots and frequent lightning strikes. Storm motions will be
slower and potentially more erratic than previous days, but a
general movement toward the east to southeast is expected.
Isolated storms are possible along the coast south of the Cape
early this afternoon with a higher storm coverage later in the day
over the interior then pushing toward the east coast.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
Scattered to numerous afternoon showers and lightning storms are
forecast. Cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, gusty winds and
torrential downpours will be the main threats with these storms.

The rip current risk will remain Moderate through the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should monitor the weather and self activate if needed.

Kelly/Weitlich

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
134 PM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021

FLZ058-059-064-231830-
St. Lucie FL-Okeechobee FL-Martin FL-
134 PM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN ST. LUCIE...
SOUTHEASTERN OKEECHOBEE AND WESTERN MARTIN COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM
EDT...

At 134 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Indiantown, moving northwest at 10 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Indiantown, J And S Fish Camp, Saint Lucie West, Tradition and Port
Mayaca.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2700 8062 2708 8066 2711 8066 2716 8071
      2720 8076 2717 8086 2732 8039 2696 8037
      2696 8061
TIME...MOT...LOC 1734Z 151DEG 9KT 2699 8048

Fehling

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
146 PM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021

FLZ059-064-231830-
St. Lucie FL-Martin FL-
146 PM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ST. LUCIE AND
EASTERN MARTIN COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

At 145 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Jonathan Dickinson State Park, or near Hobe Sound. This storm was
nearly stationary.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Port Saint Lucie, Walton, Stuart, Tequesta and Jupiter Island.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2697 8007 2697 8014 2696 8014 2696 8037
      2732 8039 2737 8021
TIME...MOT...LOC 1745Z 155DEG 4KT 2702 8019

Fehling