Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1018 AM EDT Thu May 6 2021

.DISCUSSION...

...Scattered Lightning Storms Developing This Afternoon; Isolated
Severe Possible...

Current-Today...USAF 915 MHZ Cape wind profilers show fairly deep
westerly flow. While the ECSB is expected to develop (at least)
along the Space/Treasure coasts, inland progression will be
difficult with the deep west flow. The 10Z KXMR sounding came in
with a PWAT of 1.57 inches and 500 mb temp of -8.4C. A frontal
boundary will press southward into the central FL peninsula during
the afternoon. It will be preceded by SCT-NMRS showers and lightning
storms, especially across the eastern peninsula as the WCSB will be
dominant and fairly quick moving.

Sufficient parameters will be in place for a few strong/potentially
severe storms across ECFL, especially nearer the coast when activity
interacts with the ECSB, which will promote an increase in coverage
and intensity. Convection should develop over the interior by early
to mid afternoon and push east, or even southeast propagating along
outflow boundaries. The best chance for strong/isolated severe
storms will between 3 pm and 7 pm. One or two storms will be capable
of damaging winds near 60 mph and large hail. The SPC has kept for
today the eastern peninsula in a Marginal Risk for Severe Storms.
Interactions with inland lake breezes will also pose a risk for
strong storms over the interior as well. Frequent lightning strikes
and localized heavy rainfall will also be threats from showers and
storms later today.

Tonight...Previous...The storms will push offshore early this
evening and the frontal boundary will push south of Lake Okeechobee
by sunrise Friday. Somewhat cooler and drier air will filter into
the area behind the front, allowing min temps to fall back into the
mid 60s most of the area which is very close to seasonal norms for
early May.

&&

.AVIATION...Early morning MVFR CIGs gradually diminishing across
northern terminals. Morning winds ranging from SW-W-WNW will
increase in upwards of 8-12 kts, but will back to onshore at least
along the Treasure Coast and perhaps along the Space Coast this
afternoon, although inland progression of the ECSB will be difficult
with the deep WRLY flow.

Previous...Scattered TSRA will develop across northern sections by
early afternoon and increase in coverage and intensity as they move
east and interact with the sea breeze which will be located just
inland from the coast during the late aftn. A few strong storms will
be capable of wind gusts up to 50 knots, mainly near the east coast.

&&

.MARINE...Today-Tonight...Morning offshore flow will transition to
onshore at the coast, though the ECSB will only be able to penetrate
a short distance inland this afternoon with the deeper westerly flow
in place. Winds over the open waters are forecast to become of a
southerly component but any shower/storm development (pushing off
coast) will distort the local wind field (variability). Even with 1-
2 ft seas, both winds/seas locally higher invof of storms later
today/tonight.

Some of the storms will be strong, containing wind gusts up to 50
knots and possibly hail. The stronger storms should clear the
Treasure Coast by sunset or shortly thereafter. A frontal boundary
will push across the local Atlc waters tonight with winds becoming
NW around 15-18 knots late in the night and towards daybreak. This
will build seas 3-4 feet offshore (Cape northward).

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

Sedlock/Weitlich/Haley

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
557 AM EDT Thu May 6 2021

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-070000-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
557 AM EDT Thu May 6 2021

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered lightning storms are expected to develop this afternoon
over the interior of central Florida and move toward the East
around 25 mph. Some of the storms will become strong, especially
as they collide with the east coast sea breeze sitting just inland
from the coast during the mid to late afternoon. The primary
threats will be frequent lightning strikes, strong wind gusts and
very heavy rain. One or two storms may become severe, containing
damaging wind gusts near 60 mph and large hail. The best chance
will be over the coastal counties between 3 pm and 7 pm.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Scattered lightning storms will initiate over the Florida
peninsula and move East around 25 mph toward the east coast during
the afternoon. As these storms approach the coast late in the
day, coverage and intensity will increase before pushing across
the intracoastal and nearshore Atlantic waters. These offshore
moving storms will be capable of producing wind gusts greater than
35 knots along with hail and very heavy rain. Special Marine
Warnings are likely along portions of the coast during the
afternoon and early evening.

.WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
Storms near the coast late today may fully exploit the low level
shear resulting from boundary collisions. This may result in a
funnel cloud or two. Funnel clouds can briefly touch down,
producing a brief tornado or waterspout.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
On Friday, the combination of low relative humidity and gusty
northwest winds will produce a fire weather danger. Any new or
ongoing fires may spread rapidly.

Isolated to scattered lightning storms will return early next
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should monitor the weather and self activate if needed.

Kelly

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1223 PM EDT Thu May 6 2021

FLZ041-044-141-061730-
Northern Lake County FL-Coastal Volusia FL-Inland Volusia FL-
1223 PM EDT Thu May 6 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN LAKE AND CENTRAL
VOLUSIA COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM EDT...

At 1223 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pittman, or 8 miles northeast of Emeralda, moving east at 30 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 40 to 50 mph will be possible
with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Deltona, Daytona Beach, DeLand, Orange City and Lake Helen.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2896 8180 2896 8166 2905 8166 2906 8164
      2924 8164 2926 8132 2927 8115 2928 8114
      2890 8102 2895 8180
TIME...MOT...LOC 1623Z 274DEG 27KT 2904 8173

Weitlich