Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
340 AM EDT Tue Apr 20 2021

.DISCUSSION...

...Widespread Heavy Showers and Storms Today With Some Flooding
Possible...

This Morning...Early morning analysis shows the stalled frontal
boundary is located across the southern FL peninsula, with the
broader frontal surface extending north of the Cape. The strongest
forcing is currently over the far southern peninsula where numerous
storms, some strong, are ongoing. As we approach sunrise models are
in decent agreement that additional showers and storms will develop
across the central FL peninsula. Temperatures this morning range
from the upper 60s north to low 70s south.

While we are currently dry, that will change quickly after about 5AM
as rain chances jump to 40-60 percent. Expect multiple rounds of
heavy rainfall this morning, with the strongest storms producing a
quick 1-2 inches of rain and frequent lightning strikes.

Today...A weak surface wave will develop within the surface frontal
zone and move across central FL peninsula. This should enhance
convective activity, leading to widespread showers and lightning
storms late this morning into the afternoon. Rain chances have been
bumped up to 80-90 percent. Afternoon temps should reach the upper
70s to low 80s, though persistent rain/cloud cover should keep temps
in the 70s most of the day.

The heaviest rain is most likely across an area stretching from
Clermont to Orlando to Titusville, south to Lake Okeechobee and Fort
Pierce. That's where widespread rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches are
expected, with locally higher amounts possible. Elsewhere, rainfall
amounts of 1-2 inches are possible, with locally higher amounts if
multiple rounds of heavy rain occur.

Tonight...Scattered to numerous showers and lighting storms continue
this evening, as most activity pushes offshore after sunset. Expect
showers and a few lightning storms to linger into the overnight
hours. We finally start to dry out overnight as a weak cold front
begins to move across the FL peninsula. Areas north of I-4 should
dry out around midnight, then drying out along/north of the Space
Coast by 2-3AM.

Unfortunately for the Treasure Coast and Lake Okeechobee region,
this weak front (and the dry air associated with it) will
momentarily stall near Sebastian Inlet late tonight. Scattered
showers and a few lightning storms are likely to redevelop close to
sunrise Wednesday. Have maintained a 40-50 percent chance of rain
from Ft. Pierce to Okeechobee south, and a 20 percent chance up to
Sebastian Inlet. Overnight lows settle mostly into the 60s.

Wednesday-Friday...Residual mid level trough along the SE seaboard
lifts out to the NE leaving flat/zonal flow in place through the end
of the work week. The surface cool front, which will lie near a
Melbourne-Lake Kissimmee line early in the morning, will sag just
south of Lake Okeechobee and the Treasure by early evening.
Sufficient deep layer moisture will reside across the southern half
CWA to support diurnally forced showers/few TS with highest rain
chances over the Treasure Coast in the afternoon. POPs will range
from 20-30 for southern Brevard/Osceola to 50-60 for Okeechobee/
St Lucie/Martin. Dry from Wed night through Fri night as post-
frontal high pressure builds from the SE CONUS across NOFL and into
the western Atlantic.

Max temps Wed in the L-M80s areawide with cooler mins, in the U50s
-L60s most areas Wed night. Not as warm Thu with maxes most areas in
the U70s, except L80s south and L-M70s for Coastal Volusia. Mins in
the U50s-L60s again. Rural inland northern areas (Lake George/Ocala
Forest) will see M50s both mornings. U70s-L80s/L-M60s for Fri.

Saturday-Tuesday...The base of an amplified, positive-tilt short
wave trough will move across the SE CONUS Sat, and then across
northern and central FL late Sat night into Sun. Its attendant
surface low pressure area will move rapidly ENE from the mid MS
Valley through the mid Atlantic States though Sat night, dragging a
cool front rapidly into central Florida. This will be accompanied by
increasing moisture and rain chances this weekend, ranging from
50/north to 20/ south Sat-Sat night, and 20/north to 30/south Sun.

As the low pushes offshore the Delmarva region Sun, it is progged to
drag the cool front through ECFL by either late Sun afternoon or
evening, followed by a return to dry weather through early week,
with temps slightly "cooler", albeit still warm/seasonable. Temps
U80s/U60s Sat, M-U80s/L-M60s Sun, and L80s/L60s for Mon-Tue.

&&

.AVIATION...
Low stratus is beginning to develop this morning across the inland
peninsula and spread east/north toward the coast. These low clouds
could persist for much of today. Multiple rounds of showers and
storms will impact all terminals into the early evening. Any heavy
shower or storm that moves over a terminal will cause reductions in
CIGs/VISBY to IFR/LIFR conditions. A cold front will slowly cross
the FL peninsula overnight tonight, though it won't clear the area
completely until Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-Tonight...A stalled front will produce widespread showers and
lightning storms today and tonight. Multiple rounds of storms will
develop over the peninsula and push offshore. The strongest storms
will produce frequent lightning strikes and gusty winds of 30-35
knots, in addition to heavy downpours. Outside of storms, winds 10-
15 knots will vary in direction across the waters due to the stalled
frontal boundary. Seas 1-2 feet, perhaps up to 3 feet well offshore.
A weak cold front is expected to move across most of the local
waters overnight tonight, as winds become W/WNW ahead of the front.

Wednesday-Saturday...Light-moderate offshore/westerly flow Wed will
shift to northerly and increase to just shy of 20kt Wed night-Thu
morning, with seas briefly building to 5-6ft offshore. Winds veer
onshore/NE-E and slacken late Thu-early Fri with seas dropping back
to 3-4ft, but then rebuild to 4-5ft as winds increase out of the SE
and S ahead of the next FROPA. Seas could flirt with 6ft again Sat,
with Cautionary conditions possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  63  82  58 /  70  20   0   0
MCO  79  66  84  60 /  90  40  10   0
MLB  80  66  84  62 /  90  50  20   0
VRB  82  66  85  63 /  90  60  40  10
LEE  77  65  82  58 /  70  20   0   0
SFB  78  65  85  60 /  80  30  10   0
ORL  79  67  85  62 /  90  30  10   0
FPR  82  66  85  62 /  90  60  50  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

Rodriguez/Cristaldi

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
750 AM EDT Tue Apr 20 2021

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-202200-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
750 AM EDT Tue Apr 20 2021

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Multiple rounds of heavy showers and lightning storms are expected
across most of east-central Florida today. These showers and
storms will develop this morning, then become widespread by early
afternoon, and persist into this evening. The main threats
associated with the strongest storms are frequent lightning
strikes, torrential downpours, wind gusts over 45-50 mph and up to
one inch hail.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
Rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches are possible today into tonight
as numerous heavy showers and lightning storms move through east-
central Florida. Locally higher amounts are possible in areas
that receive multiple rounds of heavy rain. Any persistent rain
could lead to standing water along roadways and flooding of low
lying and poor drainage areas.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
There is a moderate risk of rip currents at Central Florida
Atlantic beaches today. Always swim within sight of a life guard
and never enter the surf alone.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Any heavy shower or lightning storm that moves over the local
Atlantic waters will be capable of producing brief wind gusts
greater than 34 knots, and occasional to frequent lightning
strikes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms continue
Wednesday for the Treasure Coast before conditions dry out. A low
to moderate risk of rip currents continues through late week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should monitor the weather and self activate if needed,
especially for rainfall amounts greater than 3 inches and flooding
of areas that do not normally flood.

Smith/Rodriguez

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
758 AM EDT Tue Apr 20 2021

FLZ044-144-201230-
Northern Lake County FL-Southern Lake County FL-
758 AM EDT Tue Apr 20 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LAKE COUNTY UNTIL 830 AM
EDT...

At 758 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Leesburg, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Leesburg, Eustis, Tavares, Mount Dora and Howey-In-the-hills.

LAT...LON 2891 8195 2896 8185 2896 8166 2905 8166
      2905 8164 2907 8164 2910 8157 2880 8144
      2879 8149 2879 8165 2878 8166 2874 8166
      2866 8195
TIME...MOT...LOC 1158Z 237DEG 40KT 2880 8194

Combs

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
813 AM EDT Tue Apr 20 2021

FLZ041-046-141-147-201245-
Coastal Volusia FL-Northern Brevard County FL-Seminole FL-
Inland Volusia FL-
813 AM EDT Tue Apr 20 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SEMINOLE...
NORTHWESTERN BREVARD AND SOUTHEASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTIES UNTIL 845 AM
EDT...

At 813 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Chuluota, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Oak Hill, Mims, Scottsmoor, Haulover Canal and Geneva.

LAT...LON 2894 8081 2870 8064 2861 8102 2861 8107
      2871 8113
TIME...MOT...LOC 1213Z 234DEG 32KT 2868 8105

Combs

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
815 AM EDT TUE APR 20 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0752 AM     HAIL             2 E AZALEA PARK         28.55N 81.26W
04/20/2021  E0.75 INCH       Orange             FL   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL REPORTS OF HAIL OF DIME TO PENNY SIZE WERE
            REPORTED IN THE ORLANDO AREA NEAR UNION PARK BY PUBLIC
            AND BROADCAST MEDIA.

&&

KN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
822 AM EDT Tue Apr 20 2021

FLZ045-201245-
Orange-
822 AM EDT Tue Apr 20 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTY...

At 822 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Conway, moving
east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Orlando, Wedgefield, Avalon Park, Azalea Park and Conway.

Local Atmospheric conditions are becoming more favorable for the
possibility of landspout formation. A landspout is a tornado of very
short duration and winds generally less than 60 mph which can cause
minor damage and injuries in its direct path. If this trend
continues, a tornado warning may be issued shortly. Stay tuned to
NOAA weather radio and local media for additional updates and
possible warnings.

LAT...LON 2845 8137 2856 8136 2859 8112 2844 8111
TIME...MOT...LOC 1222Z 254DEG 16KT 2850 8131

Combs

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
848 AM EDT Tue Apr 20 2021

FLZ045-147-201315-
Northern Brevard County-Orange-
848 AM EDT Tue Apr 20 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE COUNTY...

At 847 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Avalon Park,
moving east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and funnel clouds are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wedgefield, Avalon Park, Bithlo and Christmas.

Funnel clouds can occasionally touch down and produce brief small
tornadoes. Move indoors and stay away from windows.

LAT...LON 2861 8117 2861 8097 2862 8096 2854 8092
      2850 8087 2841 8087 2845 8116
TIME...MOT...LOC 1247Z 252DEG 23KT 2852 8113

Combs

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
908 AM EDT Tue Apr 20 2021

FLZ045-147-201400-
Northern Brevard County-Orange-
908 AM EDT Tue Apr 20 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN BREVARD AND EAST
CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTIES...

At 908 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Christmas,
moving east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Titusville, Port Saint John, Playalinda Beach, Space Coast Airport
and Christmas.

Funnel clouds can occasionally touch down and produce brief small
tornadoes. Move indoors and stay away from windows.

LAT...LON 2845 8050 2846 8101 2861 8103 2861 8097
      2862 8096 2870 8062 2860 8054 2848 8050
TIME...MOT...LOC 1308Z 258DEG 27KT 2855 8094

Combs