Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1000 PM EDT Sun Apr 18 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Some gusty storms moved through Lake and Volusia counties this
evening, part of a line of convection that extends SW through the
eastern Gulf/west central FL. While the northern storms are
pushing offshore this evening, with light to moderate rain filling
in behind, stronger storms are currently pushing onshore around
the Tampa area. This convection is expected to continue eastward
through central FL late this evening and overnight, with some
lingering potential for isolated strong to damaging straight line
winds, and possibly some hail into the rest of tonight. Hi- res
guidance hasn't been terribly reliable, but with a passing S/W and
increasing moisture will continue to lean toward higher rain
chances overnight, with PoPs up to 60-70 percent over much of the
area, except 40-50 percent across southern portions of Okeechobee
County and the Treasure Coast. Cloudy conditions and low in the
60s expected for tonight.

&&

.AVIATION...Some gusty showers and storms have already shifted
offshore of Volusia County this evening, with line of convection
pushing onshore west central Florida expected to continue eastward
through I-4 and likely through Osceola/Brevard, potentially into
Okeechobee County and Treasure Coast later tonight. While
convection may weaken some as it shifts eastward from Tampa, a
lingering threat for isolated strong to severe storms will be
possible. Tempo IFR/MVFR conditions will occur with any storms,
with more predominant MVFR/locally IFR cigs building into the area
later tonight and lingering through tomorrow, as high coverage of
showers and storms are expected to continue as quasi-stationary
front remains draped across central FL.

&&

.MARINE...Gusty offshore moving showers and storms will continue
to be possible overnight as frontal boundary continues southward
and stalls across central FL. Outside of any storm activity,
winds will be variable up to 15 kt tonight, becoming W/SW late
tonight into early Monday morning. Then a shift from the NW is
forecast to start in the late afternoon from Volusia waters
southward. Seas will be 2-3 ft outside any storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  65  76  63  77 /  80  80  60  80
MCO  68  79  66  79 /  70  80  70  80
MLB  68  82  67  82 /  70  80  70  80
VRB  69  85  66  84 /  60  80  70  80
LEE  67  75  65  76 /  80  80  60  80
SFB  67  77  65  78 /  70  80  70  80
ORL  70  79  67  80 /  70  80  70  80
FPR  67  86  67  85 /  50  80  70  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

Weitlich/Cristaldi

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
321 AM EDT Mon Apr 19 2021

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-192200-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
321 AM EDT Mon Apr 19 2021

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Locally heavy showers and embedded lightning storms will quickly move
eastward across central Florida during this morning and through
the afternoon, with further development somewhat southward later
today. The primary threats within any storms which develop will
be torrential rainfall, occasional to frequent cloud to ground
lightning, and storm wind gusts up to 45 mph.

The main areas for storms will stretch across all of central
FLorida during much of today. Successive rounds of showers and
storms are likely in many areas.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
Accumulation of rainfall from successive rounds of precipitation
will lead to standing water in low spots and along roadways mainly
south of a line from Leesburg to Sanford and Scottsmoor.
Accumulated water will create possible driving hazards, as rain
amounts of 2 to 3 inches will be possible locally by late tonight.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
Ocean conditions will produce a Moderate Risk of rip currents
today at Atlantic coast beaches. Always swim within sight of a
lifeguard, and do not swim alone.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Locally gusty winds from morning to afternoon storms may affect
the larger inland lakes and then quickly push offshore of the
Volusia, Brevard and Treasure Coast. Any storms will be capable
of producing briefly strong winds greater than 34 knots, and
occasional to frequent lightning strikes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
High coverage of showers and storms will continue across much of
central Florida, and especially south of Volusia and Lake
counties on Tuesday. A stalled surface front will provide the
focus for several rounds of potentially heavy rainfall and minor
flooding of streets and poorly drained low lying areas. Rainfall
amounts may total 3 to 4 inches, or a little higher in some areas
by late Tuesday.

A Moderate Risk of rip currents will continue at area beaches early
this week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

Pendergrast

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
259 AM EDT Mon Apr 19 2021

FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-190900-
Inland Volusia-Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-
Osceola-Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
259 AM EDT Mon Apr 19 2021

Numerous showers are developing across Central Florida early this
morning, stretching from the Tampa Bay area into the Orlando Metro,
and east into Brevard County. Expect these showers and perhaps a few
lighting storms to continue through sunrise.

Heavy downpours are expected with all passing showers, along with
occasional lightning strikes. Some ares will experience multiple
rounds of heavy rain this morning, which could lead to ponding of
water on roadways and low lying areas.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
328 AM EDT Mon Apr 19 2021

FLZ045-047-053-147-190800-
Southern Brevard County FL-Osceola FL-Northern Brevard County FL-
Orange FL-
328 AM EDT Mon Apr 19 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL BREVARD...
SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE AND NORTHEASTERN OSCEOLA COUNTIES UNTIL 400 AM
EDT...

At 328 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northeast of Harmony, or 9 miles east of Narcoossee, moving
east at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Rockledge, Cocoa, Lone Cabbage Fish Camp, Sharpes and Canaveral
Groves.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2824 8119 2837 8119 2847 8077 2824 8072
TIME...MOT...LOC 0728Z 256DEG 31KT 2832 8108

Rodriguez