Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

East Central Florida Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
932 AM EST Sun Feb 14 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Current.. A stalled front remains across northern FL to the NE gulf
of Mex. Locally a complicated pattern to assess storm potential
remains due to earlier morning storms, which have largely moved
offshore the Treasure Coast. Latest vis satellite imagery indicates
partial clearing over land. Redevelopment of afternoon storms
assisted by surface heating, and a well developed arm/moist sector
ahead of the approaching gulf activity.

Today-Tonight...A weak shortwave trough will head eastward towards
the peninsula this morning, moving over northern FL by this
afternoon. Surface low pressure and trailing cool front will slide
across the NE Gulf of Mexico and northern FL by this afternoon.
These features will support an increase in mean low to mid level
winds, while deep moisture moving in from the SW will continue to
stream across Florida.

Showers and embedded lightning storms will develop and move over the
region, with highest coverage across the northern portion of the CWA
by early afternoon, from northern Brevard to northern Osceola
counties northward, spreading across most of the area during the
afternoon into evening.

PW values continue to be well above 1.50", with locations across the
northern CWA having values around 1.60-1.70", indicating potential
for heavy rainfall this afternoon. The main concern continues to be
gusty winds, with much of the CWA, from northern Indian River to
Osceola counties northward, outlined in a "Slight" risk for severe
weather today. A few of the strong storms could become severe this
afternoon, mainly for northern areas closer to the position of the
frontal boundary. With MUCAPE values around 1500 J/kg, and bulk
shear values around 30-40 kt, further supporting the chance for a
few of the stronger storms becoming severe this afternoon. Rain and
storm chances begin to diminish after sunset, with the CWA becoming
mostly dry after midnight.

Afternoon highs will be in upper 70s and low 80s across the north,
and mid to upper 80s across the south. Overnight lows will drop into
the low 60s across the far north, and mid to upper 60s across the
rest of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...Shower/storm redevelopment aft 14/17Z, with coverage
decreasing after 14/23z, and becoming mostly dry across all the
terminals after midnight. VFR/MVFR CIGs/VIS prevailing through the
TAF period with brief IFR conditions embedded in some of the
stronger storms. Southerly winds increasing to 10-13 KT this
afternoon before decreasing to 5-10 KT and veering to the SE after
nightfall.

&&

.MARINE...
Current-today...South winds around 10-15 kts with seas 3 ft. Winds
and seas. locally higher near showers and embedded strong storms
moving offshore during afternoon, producing wind gusts in excess of
35 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  79  63  81  66 /  80  30  40  50
MCO  82  67  85  68 /  70  30  40  50
MLB  84  65  85  70 /  60  20  30  40
VRB  85  65  86  70 /  60  10  30  40
LEE  79  67  83  67 /  80  30  40  50
SFB  82  67  84  68 /  80  30  40  50
ORL  84  69  84  68 /  70  30  40  50
FPR  85  65  86  68 /  50  20  30  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

JP/KR/JC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
746 AM EST Sun Feb 14 2021

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-142300-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
746 AM EST Sun Feb 14 2021

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Showers and embedded strong storms will occur during this
morning over the Treasure Coast to Lake Okeechobee, with
redevelopment of lightning storms across portions of central
Florida this afternoon into early this evening. The highest
chances of strong to possibly a few severe storms this afternoon
is expected to be over Lake, Volusia, Seminole, Orange and
northern Brevard Counties.

Developing lightning storms will move quickly northeast at 35 to
45 mph, with a few strong to marginally severe storms possible
from about Yeehaw Junction and Sebastian northward. Wind gusts in
excess of 50 mph, frequent cloud to ground lightning, small hail
and torrential downpours are possible. A brief tornado is
possible as well,

Remain alert to the storm threat today and move indoors at the
first sign of threatening weather.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
Storms moving over the same area will be capable of producing one
inch or greater of local rainfall within 30 minutes to an hour.
This will lead to localized ponding of water in low spots and
intersections and driving hazards.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
There will is a Moderate Risk of dangerous rip currents at the
central Florida Atlantic beaches. While rip currents will be
present all day, the highest risk will be after 100 PM to
nightfall due to tidal effects. If you're planning on entering the
ocean today, do so only within sight of a lifeguard, and never
swim alone.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Isolated thunderstorm wind gusts of 35 knots or more will be
possible across inland lakes, the Intracoastal Waterway and
nearshore Atlantic waters. Boaters should watch for storms rapidly
approaching from the southwest and seek safe harbor well in
advance.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
Storm coverage and intensity will decrease through much of this
week, however a few afternoon lightning storms will be possible
each afternoon through Wednesday. Cloud to ground lightning
strikes and torrential downpours will be the main storm threats.
The rip current risk will remain Moderate at area beaches early
this week.

Boating conditions may become poor well offshore Monday night into
Tuesday, and again Thursday through early Friday as a pair of cold
fronts approach and then move across the local Atlantic waters.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should monitor the weather and self activate if needed.

JP/MW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
156 PM EST Sun Feb 14 2021

FLZ044-045-144-141930-
Northern Lake County-Orange-Southern Lake County-
156 PM EST Sun Feb 14 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL LAKE AND NORTHWESTERN
ORANGE COUNTIES...

At 156 PM EST, a strong thunderstorm was located near
Howey-In-the-hills, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Apopka, Eustis, Tavares, Mount Dora and Howey-In-the-hills.

This storm may intensify so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Funnel clouds can occasionally touch down and produce brief small
tornadoes. Move indoors and stay away from windows.

Local Atmospheric conditions are becoming more favorable for the
possibility of landspout formation. A landspout is a tornado of very
short duration and winds generally less than 60 mph which can cause
minor damage and injuries in its direct path. If this trend
continues, a tornado warning may be issued shortly. Stay tuned to
NOAA weather radio and local media for additional updates and
possible warnings.

LAT...LON 2901 8162 2884 8139 2883 8142 2881 8142
      2855 8172 2867 8188
TIME...MOT...LOC 1856Z 219DEG 28KT 2867 8175

Rodriguez

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
315 PM EST Sun Feb 14 2021

FLZ041-044>046-142045-
Northern Lake County-Orange-Seminole-Inland Volusia-
315 PM EST Sun Feb 14 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN SEMINOLE...EAST
CENTRAL LAKE...NORTHWESTERN ORANGE AND CENTRAL VOLUSIA COUNTIES...

At 315 PM EST, a strong thunderstorm was located near Wekiwa Springs
State Park, or near Lake Mary, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Deltona, Sanford, DeLand, Lake Mary and Orange City.

This storm may intensify so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Funnel clouds can occasionally touch down and produce brief small
tornadoes. Move indoors and stay away from windows.

LAT...LON 2871 8144 2880 8156 2912 8131 2890 8107
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 225DEG 31KT 2879 8143

Rodriguez