Special Marine Warning 67, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1113 AM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

.UPDATE...
An earlier start to convection this morning than yesterday.
Scattered showers are currently moving across northern parts of east
central Florida, mainly from Orlando northward, moving eastward
around 15 to 20 mph. Additional showers and lightning storms have
formed north of Tampa along the west coast of Florida, and are moving
eastward around 15 mph. These additional showers and storms are
expected to move across the local area from northern Osceola
county northward through the morning. Current model guidance
shows 2 potential rounds of convection today. The first round will
be this morning, mainly impacting areas from northern Brevard and
northern Osceola northward as the upper-level trough digs south
and the stationary boundary slowly moves closer to the Space
Coast. The second round is expected in the afternoon and will
persist through early evening, mainly impacting the coast and
across the north as collisions between outflow boundaries from
previous storms and the sea breeze occur. Timing of convection
this afternoon may be a little tricky, but for now the model
guidance is indicating from 2 PM to 8 PM will be the likeliest
times for storms. Forecast soundings show PW values of 1.8-2.0
inches, with a fairly moist mid layer across the north, and lower
PW values (1.5-1.7 inches) and a fairly dry mid layer across the
south, further indicating the main areas for convection will be
across the north today. Main impacts from storms today will be
heavy rain, frequent cloud- to- ground lightning, gusty winds up
to 45 mph, and small hail.

Another warm day for east central Florida with afternoon highs in
the low 90s under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Overnight lows will
be in the low to mid 70s under mostly cloudy skies.

&&

.Aviation... Scattered showers and lightning storms this morning,
mainly from MCO northward. Included a Tempo group starting 14/16Z
for 3SM TSRA first starting at KLEE and then moving eastward through
time. Brief MVFR ceilings this morning as a broad cu deck is
filtering down from the north, mainly from TIX northward. Winds
today will be SW 5-10 KT, with a sea breeze developing late across
coastal terminals before veering once again to the SW around 5 KT
overnight. A second round of showers and storms expected this
afternoon, starting around 18Z. Included Tempo groups around 22Z for
3SM TSRA for all TAF sites. VFR conditions outside of convection.

&&

.Marine...
Scattered showers this morning, mainly from Brevard northward as the
upper-level trough digs south and the stationary boundary slowly
moves closer to the Space Coast. Current buoy 41009 observations
show seas are 2 ft with winds around 12KT. Another round of showers
and storms are expected this afternoon, with cell movement from the
west, moving eastward around 15-20KT. Winds will be S/SW around 10
KT this morning before backing to S/SSE around 12 KT from Brevard
southward as the sea breeze develops this afternoon. Winds will then
veer back to S/SW overnight and decrease to around 10KT. Seas are
expected to remain 2-3ft through today and overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  92  72  89  72 /  60  40  70  30
MCO  92  74  90  73 /  70  30  70  30
MLB  93  74  90  74 /  50  40  70  30
VRB  94  73  91  73 /  40  30  70  30
LEE  90  75  87  75 /  60  30  70  30
SFB  92  74  90  74 /  70  40  70  30
ORL  92  76  90  75 /  70  30  70  30
FPR  94  72  91  73 /  40  20  70  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

Watson/Kelly

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1100 AM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-132000-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-
Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian
Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard
County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet
20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-Indian River-
Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-Southern Lake-Northern
Brevard-
1100 AM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
An earlier start to scattered lightning storms today as they move
East around 20 mph across east central Florida from late this
morning through the afternoon. The primary threats in the stronger
storms will be gusty winds up to 50 mph, frequent lightning strikes
and heavy rain. If threatening weather approaches or thunder is
heard, seek shelter in an enclosed building or automobile. Picnic
shelters and porches offer no protection from the dangers of
lightning.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
Storms will be capable of producing torrential downpours of 1 to
2 inches in a 60 to 90 minute period, which may produce ponding or
temporary poor drainage flooding of poorly drained roads, urban
and low lying areas. Flooding is also possible over areas where
training of thunderstorms occur.

.EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT...
Peak heat index values between 102 and 104 degrees is forecast over
much of east central Florida. Remember to drink plenty of water and
take frequent breaks from spending time outside for prolonged
periods of time.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
There is a moderate risk for life-threatening rip currents at all
Central Florida Atlantic beaches.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
A few stronger storms may produce wind gusts to around 45 knots on
inland lakes, as well as the intracoastal and nearshore Atlantic
waters today. Boaters should watch for storms approaching from the
west.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
Scattered-to-numerous thunderstorms are forecast each afternoon
and early evening, with the activity increasing in coverage today
into early next week. A few stronger storms will be possible each
day, with cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, gusty winds and
torrential downpours. Offshore moving storms will also pose a
threat for locally higher winds and seas to mariners. A moderate
risk of rip currents will also continue.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should monitor the weather and self activate is needed.

SK