Special Marine Warning 186, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1051 AM EDT Fri Nov 5 2021

.UPDATE...

...Active Weather Spreading Northward Today with Locally Heavy
Rainfall and Strong to Isolated Severe Storms Possible...
...Coastal Flooding and Minor Beach Erosion Possible This Morning
Through at Least Sunday...

It's quite the soggy morning out with light moderate rain (with
some embedded heavier showers and storms) encompassing virtually
all of central Florida as large scale lift is in place ahead of an
upper-level trough and a surface low moving across the GOMEX.
Have raised PoPs to near 100% into this afternoon with 80-90%
thereafter. The main threat continues to be excessive rainfall
along the coast (esp. Volusia and Brevard) as well as a few
strong to severe storms possible across most of the area (see
previous discussion). However, one thing to add on top of the
previous discussion is that storm-relative helicity will be
increasing, per short-term guidance, and if sufficient instability
can be gained, then the environment could support a brief tornado
or two.

Today-Tonight (previous)...An area of low pressure will be
developing this morning across the eastern Gulf of Mexico at the
lower to mid levels. This will be along a frontal boundary that
has been for the most part across east central FL in the past few
days. Moisture has been increasing from south to north and it will
continue to do so today. Instability will also increase with
mesoanalysis showing most of it towards the coast from Volusia to
Martin. Some of these storms could become strong causing locally
damaging wind gusts and small hail. Along the coast is where we
are expecting higher amounts of rainfall today. Based on the
latest GFS run, a bulk of higher precip is possible to concentrate
towards Volusia and Brevard in the late afternoon early evening.
Overall, accumulations of rainfall of 3-4 inches are possible with
some areas receiving up to 6 inches. A Flood Watch is in effect
today and tonight for Volusia and Brevard counties. Marginal risk
for strong to severe storms for the aforementioned areas today.

The surface low will close and reach west central FL tonight.
At this point, it is forecast to be shaping up like a comma,
bringing into parts of the local area drier air tonight. The low
will then move to the northeast and exit through the NE FL late
tonight. Across the peninsula, this scenario will create a limited
weather pocket for us tonight. POPs were adjusted to reflect this
decrease as well as the probability of storms decreasing through
the night.

&&

.AVIATION...
Widespread precipitation and isolated to scattered storms through
much of the day, and MVFR to IFR cigs/visbys will stick around
with this activity. Even though high rain chances continue through
portions of tonight, models are indicating some breaks in
precipitation toward this evening, but the low ceilings are
expected to continue through the rest of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-tonight (modified previous)...On going poor to hazardous
conditions across the waters. North to northeast winds will
increase starting on the waters of Volusia seas following suit as
these reach 7-8 ft by afternoon. As a low pressure crosses the
peninsula tonight, winds will decrease a bit but seas will
continue to build from north to south, reaching 7-9 ft for Volusia
offshore and 5-7 ft for Treasure Coast waters. A Small Craft
Advisory will be in effect today for Volusia and offshore Brevard
then expanding to all the waters through the night. However,
the SCA for nearshore Brevard may need to be moved forward
depending on how quickly the winds pickup.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Breezy north to northeast winds and high astronomical tides will
lead to a rise in the river level at Astor to Minor Flood Stage
Friday night. Locally heavy rainfall is expected today into
Saturday, which could lead to additional rises in the river level.

&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...
High astronomical tides, occurring at the same time as strong
northeast winds that develop along a cold front, is expected to
lead to coastal flooding in some locations today through this
weekend. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect through at least
Sunday but it could be extended if forecast trends of tides
remaining high continues.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  59  69  53 / 100  80  60  30
MCO  72  60  66  52 / 100  70  30  10
MLB  74  61  71  53 / 100  70  20  20
VRB  75  63  75  55 / 100  70  20  20
LEE  71  57  63  51 / 100  80  40  10
SFB  71  58  65  51 / 100  80  50  20
ORL  72  58  64  52 / 100  70  40  10
FPR  76  62  74  53 / 100  80  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EST Sunday for Coastal Volusia-
     Indian River-Martin-Northern Brevard-Southern Brevard-St.
     Lucie.

     Flood Watch through late tonight for Coastal Volusia-Inland
     Volusia-Northern Brevard-Southern Brevard.

AM...Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night
     for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-
     Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-
     Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
     Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for Flagler Beach
     to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County
     Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Saturday
     for Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM EDT this evening to 4 AM EST
     Sunday for Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM EDT Saturday to 4 AM EST Sunday
     for Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm.

&&

Combs/Fehling/Leahy/Haley

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1113 AM EDT Fri Nov 5 2021

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-060000-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
1113 AM EDT Fri Nov 5 2021

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Isolated to scattered lightning storms are expected today across
east central Florida. Main hazards will be occasional to frequent
lightning, gusty winds up to 40 to 50 mph, and locally heavy
rainfall. Although somewhat limited, a brief tornado and small
hail could be possible today.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
Periods of heavy showers and storms persisting today into this
evening may produce locally heavy rainfall across portion of
Brevard and Volusia counties. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 4 inches
are possible with locally higher amounts of up to 6 inches which may
result in flooding of low-lying and flood-prone locations.

.HIGH WIND IMPACT...
Brisk east to northeast winds are expected along portions of the
east central Florida coast today, especially for the Volusia
coast, where wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph will be possible.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
There will be a High Risk for life-threatening rip currents and
rough surf at area beaches today. Entering the dangerous surf is
not advised.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
High coverage of lightning storms will continue today and into
tonight. Wind gusts up to 35 to 45 knots will be possible with
these storms.

.WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
A quick spin-up of a waterspout is possible across all of the
east central FLorida coastal waters.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
Winds and seas will produce hazardous boating conditions starting
from the Volusia waters this morning spreading southward into
later today and tonight. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for
the Volusia county waters as well as the offshore Brevard county
waters. Operators of small craft should exercise caution across
the rest of the waters ahead of hazardous conditions arriving.

.RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
Higher than normal tides and north to northeast winds will keep the
river levels of the Saint Johns River near Astor in Action Stage
today. Due to the expected rainfall, a rise of the river to Minor
Flood Stage is forecast tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
Hazardous boating conditions will continue through the weekend,
along with rough surf and a moderate to high risk of rip currents.

The combination of high astronomical tides and strong northeast
winds is expected to lead to coastal flooding in vulnerable
locations Saturday through at least Monday. Coastal flooding and
minor beach erosion thresholds are expected to become more
pronounced during the morning high tides of Saturday, Sunday and
Monday.

Breezy north to northeast winds and high astronomical tides will
result in further rises of the river level at Astor keeping the
river in Minor Flood Stage through early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should monitor the weather and self activate if needed.

Combs/Negron

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
141 PM EDT FRI NOV 5 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0836 AM     COASTAL FLOOD    2 NNE CAPE CANAVERAL    28.42N 80.59W
11/05/2021                   Brevard            FL   OTHER FEDERAL

            THE TRIDENT PIER TIDAL GAUGE AT CAPE CANAVERAL REPORTED A
            WATER LEVEL 2.2 FEET ABOVE MEAN HIGHER HIGH WATER DURING
            HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING. MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING BEGINS AT
            2.0 FEET.

&&

CL