Special Marine Warning 165, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1042 AM EDT Thu Sep 9 2021

.DISCUSSION...

...Fast-Moving Strong Storms With Heavy Rain and Gusty Winds
Expected Today...

...Building Seas and Surf With a High Risk of Life-Threatening
Rip Currents Continuing..

Tropical Depression Mindy is very near the southeast GA coast as
of 1030 AM this morning while a band of fast-moving showers and
isolated storms is slowly sagging southward into central FL along
an area of low-level convergence and higher moisture. Have updated
and raised PoPs from Osceola and Brevard northward into early this
afternoon based on radar trends and short-term guidance. From mid
to late afternoon, model guidance has this line of showers and
storms gradually weakening with southward extent as Mindy pushes
into the western Atlantic and the low-level trough
axis/convergence zone shifts east of central FL. So have also
lowered rain chances during the late afternoon/early evening to
account for this but have left scattered mention to account for
any diurnal activity that develops on any leftover boundaries.

H85-50 mean steering winds range from 30kt north to ~20kt south,
coupled with H50 temps cooling to -7C/-8C, so a couple of strong
to marginally severe winds gusts are possible late this morning
into mid afternoon mainly from Titusville to Sanford extending
south into southern Osceola and Indian River counties.

&&

.AVIATION...
Band of fast-moving showers and isolated storms will continue to
sag southward the rest of this morning into early afternoon. TEMPO
IFR/MVFR ceilings possible with this activity, mainly from ISM-MLB
northward. Model guidance has then trended drier for this
afternoon and evening, so TEMPO groups may be able to be removed.
VFR conditions expected overnight.

&&

.MARINE...

Buoy obs from this morning show long-period swells building
across the waters, which will continue through today and tonight,
further deteriorating conditions. Only change to the inherited
forecast was to expand the SCA for the offshore Brevard county
waters.

Today-tonight (previous)...A cornucopia of threats for the marine
area and local beaches today. Swells from distant Hurricane
"Larry" over the Atlantic are still progged to build to 6-8ft late
today /tonight, while SW winds increase across the waters (mainly
north) as the local pressure gradient tightens between swiftly
ENE-moving "Mindy" to the north and the Atlantic ridge over SOFL.
Fast- moving strong storms will also pose a threat to boaters as
they push rapidly offshore later today. Along the coast, building
surf and a high risk of life-threatening rip currents increasing
further.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  74  90  74 /  70  20  60  40
MCO  91  76  92  75 /  60  20  70  30
MLB  92  75  90  74 /  50  10  60  30
VRB  93  74  91  73 /  40  10  50  30
LEE  87  76  91  74 /  70  20  60  20
SFB  90  75  92  74 /  70  20  70  30
ORL  89  76  91  75 /  70  20  70  30
FPR  94  73  91  73 /  40  10  50  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County
     Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

Combs/Volkmer/Watson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 9 2021

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-091800-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 9 2021

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Increasing moisture, instability and wind fields will lead to
scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms across east
central Florida today, expanding southward and increasing in
coverage the rest of this morning morning into this afternoon.
Today's storms will move rapidly northeast at 25 to 35 mph.

The greatest chance for strong to severe storms today will be
north of Lake Kissimmee and Vero Beach, with wind gusts in excess
of 50 mph, frequent cloud to ground lightning and torrential
downpours. Move indoors to safety at the first sign of
threatening skies, or if you hear thunder.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
Locally heavy rainfall  1 to 3 inches of rain is possible mainly
south and east of I-4 today, and this could result in minor
flooding, especially in areas that saw heavy rainfall on
Wednesday, mainly across northern Osceola and into Orange county.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
Building long period swells from distant Hurricane Larry will
maintain the High Risk for life-threatening rip currents at area
beaches today. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged due to
the building surf and increasing threat for numerous strong rip
currents.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Storms moving rapidly from southwest to northeast will be capable
of producing wind gusts at or above 35 knots over inland lakes,
the Intracoastal Waterway, and local Atlantic waters. The threat
will be especially high from Sebastian Inlet northward. Boaters
should remain aware to the likelihood of strong to severe storms
approaching rapidly from the southwest and seek safe harbor well
in advance.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
Swells from distant Hurricane Larry will build as high as 6 to 8
feet well offshore the coasts of Volusia and Brevard Counties
through tonight. In addition, southwest to west winds will
increase to between 15 and 20 knots well offshore Volusia County
as Tropical Cyclone Mindy moves offshore the Georgia coast later
today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
Rough surf and a High Risk of dangerous rip currents will
continue through Friday, with poor boating conditions also
expected. While swells from Larry will subside this weekend, the
rip current threat will remain high.

Scattered to numerous afternoon showers and lightning storms are
expected each day through the weekend. Frequent lightning, gusty
winds, and minor flooding from torrential downpours will be possible
with a few stronger storms each day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should monitor weather conditions and self activate if a
warning is issued for their area.

Combs/Cristaldi