Special Marine Warning 113, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
951 PM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021

.DISCUSSION...
The afternoon activity was rather isolated compared to previous
days. A few showers and lightning storms moved over the waters
then toward the coastal areas with no significant wind gusts.
Short term models have been all over the place with how much
activity will occur tonight. In the last update, for the rest of
tonight, showers with perhaps a few lightning storms will move to
the WNW over the Atlantic waters south of the Cape and reach the
coastal counties of Brevard to Martin. Interior counties should
remain partly-mostly cloudy after midnight. Low temperatures will
range 72 across rural areas to 76-77 for the urban areas and the
coastal communities.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions prevail outside of convection, but MVFR CIGs possible
near showers and storms, especially along The Treasure Coast.
Expecting waves of showers and storms through the night for SUA-
FPR- VRB-MLB, so maintaining VCSH and will amend TEMPOs as
activity develops. Early start to VCTS along the coast Wed
morning, starting around 12Z at SUA and working up north through
the morning, then dissipating early as well starting around 16Z.
Inland PoPs much lower than previous days so no VCSH at inland
terminals prior to afternoon thunderstorm VCTS around 17Z.
Anticipating a slightly early end to afternoon inland thunderstorms,
around 21Z. E-ESE winds during the TAF period, light overnight
and 8- 12 KTS during the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Showers and lightning storms will continue over the local Atlantic
waters tonight and will be capable of producing brief gusty winds
of 25-30 kt. Otherwise, winds will be 10-15 kt with seas 3-4 ft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  87  75  87 /  20  40  10  10
MCO  75  89  74  90 /  20  50  10  30
MLB  77  87  77  88 /  50  40  10  20
VRB  75  88  75  88 /  50  40  10  30
LEE  75  89  74  90 /  20  60  10  30
SFB  75  89  75  90 /  20  50  10  20
ORL  76  89  75  91 /  20  50  10  30
FPR  75  88  75  88 /  60  40  10  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

Negron/Fehling/Haley

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
828 PM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-140800-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
828 PM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered showers and isolated lightning storms will be possible
tonight into early Wednesday morning mainly along the Treasure and
Space Coasts and adjacent Atlantic waters. Storm motion will be
toward the northwest at around 15 mph and some of these storms
will be capable of producing occasional cloud to ground lightning,
wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph and brief heavy rainfall.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
There will be a moderate risk of dangerous rip currents at area
beaches. Never swim alone.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
A few stronger storms tonight will be capable of producing wind
gusts up to around 35 knots and heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
High shower and storm coverage is expected to continue across the
area on Wednesday, before coverage decreases again through the
end of the week. Frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes,
locally gusty winds, and heavy rainfall will continue to be the
main threats from stronger storms.

A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents will continue
into late week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed tonight.

Negron