Special Marine Warning 102, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
428 PM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Current-Today... Scattered showers and lightning storms ongoing,
mainly across the south from Osceola southward. Cell movement is to
the NNW around 15 mph. Scattered cumulus deck across the local area
with a broad area of low to mid level clouds across northern
Florida.

Tuesday-Wednesday... Tropical Storm Elsa is forecasted to be off the
southwest coast of Florida through the day on Tuesday, heading
northward along the coast before it makes landfall Wednesday
morning. Winds will steadily increase through the day with east-
southeast winds around 5-10 mph in the morning before increasing to
10-15 mph by the afternoon. Forecasted PWAT values continue to be
over 2 inches through the time period. Conditions should deteriorate
from south to north, as squally rainbands from the outer periphery
of Elsa advance northward across east central Florida. These gusty
squalls will include wind gusts of 40-60 mph, torrential downpours,
and the potential for a few tornadoes. Outer rainbands should
increase in frequency from late afternoon into the overnight hours
and into early Wednesday.

Minor, nuisance flooding will be possible, especially across areas
that have seen ample rainfall lately or where rainbands "train" over
the same areas. Afternoon highs will be cooler than previous days
due to cloudy and rainy conditions. Highs will be in the low to mid
80s under mostly cloudy skies. Overnight lows will be in the low to
mid 70s under mostly cloudy skies.

The center of Elsa should be north of the local area with conditions
improving Wednesday morning and into early afternoon. In the wake of
the storm, re-development of showers and lightning storms will be
possible. The highest rain chances (70-80 percent) will be across
the north, and 50-60 percent across the south. Afternoon highs will
be in the mid 80s, except across the Treasure Coast where highs will
be in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. Overnight lows will be in
the low 70s except across the coast, south of Cape Canaveral, where
lows will be in the mid 70s.

Thu-Mon...(Previous Discussion) With the departure of Elsa, low-
level ridging builds back into the area through the weekend. The
pressure gradient is relatively weak with daily development of the
east coast sea breeze and penetration inland as we return to a
normal diurnal "summertime" shower/storm pattern. See no reason to
differentiate from the current 40-50pct already in the grids/zones.
Storm steering flow remains fairly weak so a likely late day
collision of sea breezes across the interior where PoPs may
eventually realize highest. Highs near normal in the U80s to L90s
and nightly mins in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION... Expanding coverage of storms will continue from south
to north today with TEMPO IFR/MVFR conditions possible with storms.
Highest coverage has shifted inland over the coastal sites this
afternoon, but additional storms could develop toward TIX-SUA into
early this evening, so have pushed back inherited TEMPO timing along
the coast. Activity could linger into late evening or early
overnight before an expected lull. Mainly VFR overnight, but some
model guidance is suggesting another wave of showers toward VRB-SUA
late and toward sunrise so have kept VCSH across these terminals
(some MVFR ceilings are also possible).

&&

.MARINE...
Current-Tonight... Scattered showers and lightning storms are
streaming across the Atlantic. Cell movement is north to northwest
around 15 mph. Current buoy 41109 observations shows seas are 2 ft
with winds around 8 KT. Showers and storms will continue to stream
across the Atlantic overnight, with highest coverage being from
Cape Canaveral southward. Seas will be 2-3 ft. Winds will be south
to southeast around 10 KT through the overnight hours.

Tuesday-Wednesday... Tropical Storm Elsa is forecasted to be off the
southwest coast of Florida through the day on Tuesday, heading
northward along the coast before it makes landfall Wednesday
morning. Conditions will begin to deteriorate on Tuesday and go
through the period. Winds will increase through the day on Tuesday
as TS Elsa approaches Florida, starting from the south, and
expanding northward. South to Southeast winds through the time
period, with wind speeds starting off around 15 KT across the
southern waters and expanding northward through the day before
increasing to 15-20 KT overnight and through Wednesday. Fast-moving
rainbands will develop over the local coastal waters during the day
on Tue and continue Tue night and into Wednesday. Threats from
squalls include torrential downpours, gusty winds of 35-50kts, and
waterspouts. Seas will build to 3-4 ft on Tuesday and 4-5 ft with
brief period of 6 ft seas in the far northern waters on Wednesday.
Conditions will begin to improve Wednesday overnight, with seas
decreasing to 3-4ft and winds decreasing to around 10 KT.

Thursday-Friday... With the departure of Elsa, low-level ridging
builds back into the area through the weekend. The pressure gradient
is relatively weak with daily development of the east coast sea
breeze and penetration inland as we return to a normal diurnal
"summertime" shower/storm pattern. Seas will be 2-3 ft with
southerly winds through the time period. Wind speeds around 12 KT on
Thursday and around 5-10 KT on Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  87  75  87 /  40  70  80  80
MCO  74  86  74  87 /  40  70  80  80
MLB  76  87  76  88 /  50  70  70  60
VRB  75  87  76  89 /  40  70  60  50
LEE  75  86  74  84 /  40  80  80  80
SFB  75  87  75  87 /  40  70  80  80
ORL  76  86  76  87 /  40  70  80  80
FPR  76  87  76  89 /  40  70  60  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Tropical Storm Watch for Northern Lake-Southern Lake.

AM...None.
&&

Watson/Combs/Rodriguez

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
624 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0619 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 ESE JENSEN BEACH      27.22N 80.20W
07/05/2021  M41 MPH          AMZ555             FL   MESONET

            WEATHERFLOW SITE XJEN AT JENSEN BEACH MEASURED A PEAK
            WIND GUST OF 36KT/41MPH FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

KR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
634 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0609 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 ESE JENSEN BEACH      27.20N 80.17W
07/05/2021  M50 MPH          Martin             FL   MESONET

            THE WEATHERSTEAM SITE AT THE HOUSE OF REFUGE MEASURED A
            WIND GUST OF 50 MPH/43 KT.

&&

MW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
643 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NNW SAINT LUCIE NUCLE 27.35N 80.24W
07/05/2021  M43 MPH          St. Lucie          FL   MESONET

            WEATHERFLOW SITE ST LUCIE PLANT REPORTED A WIND GUST OF
            43 MPH/37 KT FROM THE S.

&&

KN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
656 PM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021

FLZ047-053-054-058-060000-
Okeechobee FL-Southern Brevard County FL-Osceola FL-Indian River FL-
656 PM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN OKEECHOBEE...INDIAN
RIVER...SOUTHERN BREVARD AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

At 654 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 18 miles northeast of Fort Pierce Inlet to near
Vero Beach South to near Kissimmee Prairie Preserve. Movement was
north at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Palm Bay, Melbourne, Rockledge, Sebastian and Cocoa.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2756 8113 2834 8122 2834 8072 2843 8075
      2843 8072 2834 8070 2836 8068 2834 8066
      2843 8066 2843 8061 2841 8064 2839 8061
      2834 8061 2841 8059 2844 8051 2839 8056
      2834 8057 2813 8054 2762 8030
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 176DEG 37KT 2760 8002 2759 8046 2756 8099

Leahy

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