Areal Flood Warning 12, NWS Melbourne, FL

351 
WGUS82 KMLB 211904
FLSMLB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
204 PM EST Sun Nov 21 2021

FLC111-211914-
/O.CAN.KMLB.FA.W.0012.000000T0000Z-211121T2030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
St. Lucie FL-
204 PM EST Sun Nov 21 2021

...FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A FLASH FLOOD WARNING...

The threat of flooding is ongoing. Therefore, the Flood Warning is 
being replaced with a Flash Flood Warning. Please refer to that 
bulletin for more information.

LAT...LON 2742 8027 2743 8024 2742 8024 2741 8023
      2729 8018 2728 8037 2740 8047


$$

CL

East Central Florida Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
950 AM EST Sun Nov 21 2021

...Hazardous Seas/Surf Today With a High Risk of Rip Currents...
...Turning Much Cooler Starting Monday Night...
...Another Round of Hazardous Seas/Surf Tuesday-Wednesday...

.DISCUSSION...
Current...A convergent area ascd with the coastal trough has led to
some higher rain totals across the Treasure Coast since the
overnight period. various locations across Martin and St. Lucie co's
reporting near 3 inches of rainfall and its likely we will have some
4 inch totals by 1030 AM to report within the current flood advisory
area of St. Lucie county. Avbl guid suggests the concentrated area
of coastal rainfall attm will tend to migrate north and spread
inland to less concentrated nature into early afternoon.  The
current forecast indicates this expectation. Will update the zone
and digital forecasts over the next hour reflecting these latest
trends.

from prev disc...

Today-tonight...Flow aloft will remain zonal, backing a little more
WSW from westerly by tonight ahead of the base of an approaching
short wave trough. At the surface, High pressure centered over the
western Atlantic will retreat east as a weak inverted trough
develops offshore the FL east coast. Lingering moisture will support
development of isolated-scattered scattered showers today, with the
highest POPs (50) over the SE CWA, where a few lightning storms will
also be possible. POPs lower to AOB 20 percent NW of I-4. Showers
expected to linger near the Coast tonight, however heavier precip
should reside over the Atlantic, east of the trough axis. Max
temps in the U70s north-central and around 80F south. Mins L-M60s
I-4 north and U60s to the south.

Monday-Wednesday... The upper-level ridge over the western Atlantic
will weaken into the beginning of the workweek which will allow a
strong mid/upper-level low to deepen and track through the Upper-
Midwest before pivoting to the northeast into Canada. Unfortunately
for east-central Florida, this means the unsettled weather pattern
will continue as a strong cold front develops ahead of the trough
with the tail end of the associated cold front sweeping through the
Deep South. At this time, guidance has produced a wide range of
solutions and has remained inconsistent with this system. It appears
this may be a battle between the hi-resolution short-term guidance
and the deterministic models. The global models show much lower POPs
with a lack of sufficient moisture to support widespread rain (1.2-
1.6" precipitable water values over land with slightly higher values
offshore). On the other hand, the hi-res models, such as the HRRR
and RAP, show a much better chance for rain and actually indicate
the potential for widespread coverage across central Florida with
precipitable water values in the 1.6"-2" range areawide. Also of
note, the NBM has trended more towards higher POPs than previous
runs.

&&

.AVIATION...
Spotty MVFR to briefly IFR CIGs near BKN025, mainly in precip moving
onshore FPR-SUA. Increasing coverage of diurnal SHRA. Diurnal SC
field BKN030-040 with scattered showers S/E of ISM-MCO-TIX, isolated
to the north.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-Tonight...A long-fetch fresh ENE breeze will continue to push
combined seas of 8-11ft into the local waters through sunrise. As
winds slowly ease today and especially tonight, seas will fall back
to 7-9ft this afternoon and 5-6ft by late tonight. SCA continues for
the entire MAOR through 00Z, and for only the offshore/20-60nm legs
from 00Z-06Z.

Monday-Wednesday... Boating conditions will gradually improve for a
short time through at least Monday morning with decreasing winds
veering offshore from the west-northwest around 15-20kts. Seas will
diminish to 3-5ft with up to 6 feet possible offshore through Monday
afternoon. Seas will then become hazardous once again by Monday
evening and persist through midweek as a strong cold front moves
through the region Monday into Tuesday before stalling over the
western Atlantic. Scattered-to-numerous showers will be possible on
Monday with the potential of producing heavy rainfall and wind gusts
up to 40mph in stronger showers. North-northeast winds 15-25kts will
build seas to 4-8 ft (occasionally higher) nearshore with heights
around 8-11ft (occasionally higher) farther offshore (20-60nm).

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Flagler
     Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Sebastian
     Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line
     to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST Monday for Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to
     Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

JP/CL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
501 AM EST Sun Nov 21 2021

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-220000-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
501 AM EST Sun Nov 21 2021

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
East-northeast winds of around 20 knots will continue to produce
seas of 6 to 8 feet near shore and 9 to 10 feet well offshore.
A Small Craft Advisory continues for all of the local Atlantic
waters.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A High Risk of potentially life-threatening rip currents continues
at the central Florida Atlantic beaches. While rip currents will
be present all day, the threat will be highest between 12 noon and
6 PM due to tidal effects. Additionally, rough pounding surf with
large breaking waves of 5 to 6 feet will also continue. Entering
the surf is strongly discouraged due to the dangerous surf and rip
current conditions.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A few lightning storms will be possible today offshore the Space
and Treasure Coasts, and over land areas south of Melbourne and
Kenansville, which could produce wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph and
torrential downpours. Move indoors to safety if skies look
threatening, or you hear thunder.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches will be possible in persistent
heavy showers over the Treasure Coast Counties of Indian River,
Saint Lucie and Martin today. this may cause ponding of water on
roads and other poorly drained urban and low lying areas.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
A few gusty showers or storms could produce wind gusts to 35 knots
over the local Atlantic waters, Intracoastal Waterway and inland
lakes from Brevard County southward today. Boaters should watch for
fast moving showers or isolated storms approaching rapidly from the
east today.

.RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
The Saint Johns River at Astor is forecast to remain in Action
Stage this week. There is the possibility of the river at Astor
rising back above Flood Stage Tuesday and Wednesday due to strong
northerly winds behind a cold front which will sweep through
central Florida Monday night.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
Winds and seas will become hazardous for small craft operation
once again late Monday night through the wednesday due to strong
north to northeast winds and building seas behind a strong cold
front which will sweep across the local Atlantic Monday night.
Rough, choppy surf will likely redevelop along area beaches. The
rip current threat will be Moderate Monday and could become high
through mid week.

Behind Monday night's strong cold front lows will dip into the
40s and lower 50s across much of the region early Tuesday and
Wednesday mornings.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

Cristaldi

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
822 AM EST SUN NOV 21 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 SSE JENSEN BEACH      27.18N 80.19W
11/21/2021  M3.20 INCH       Martin             FL   MESONET

            WEATHER UNDERGROUND SITE KFLSTUAR99 NEAR SEWALLS POINT
            REPORTED 3.20 INCHES RAINFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

JCP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
847 AM EST SUN NOV 21 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0829 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NNW SAINT LUCIE NUCLE 27.35N 80.24W
11/21/2021  M43 MPH          St. Lucie          FL   MESONET

            MEASURED WIND GUST ASSOCIATED WITH ONSHORE MOVING
            SHOWERS.

&&

JCP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1033 AM EST SUN NOV 21 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0829 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 N PORT SAINT LUCIE    27.33N 80.35W
11/21/2021  M4.42 INCH       St. Lucie          FL   MESONET

            WEATHER UNDERGROUND SITE KFLPORTS284 IN NORTH PORT SAINT
            LUCIE MEASURED RAINFALL TODAY. SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN THE
            IMMEDIATE AREA ALSO REPORTED OVER 4 INCHES.

&&

JCP