Areal Flood Advisory 9, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
400 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Evening-overnight...Although coverage of showers could be defined
as scattered to numerous this afternoon, these have been heavy.
Lightning strikes have been increasing with a few of the storms
but not quite high in coverage. For the rest of the afternoon,
storms will continue to move generally to the north producing
moderate to heavy rainfall which could produce localized minor
flooding in areas already saturated. Additional development will
continue through the early evening with a push for storms to move
eastward then dissipate/diminish in intensity as they reach the
coastal counties. As these dissipate, light showers will remain
through midnight leaving behind mostly cloudy skies. Temps will
drop to the lower 70s.

The Weekend (previous)...High pressure ridge axis extending from
Bermuda through the western Atlantic will remain in place,
stretching towards the local area, through the first half of the
weekend. Then, the axis will begin to shift northward Sunday
afternoon. Despite the movement in the ridge axis, we expect the
southeasterly surface flow pattern to continue, with PWATs
approaching 2" each afternoon. Generally light S/SW steering flow
on Saturday will become S/SE on Sunday, decreasing PoPs, as
showers and storms focus on the western half of the peninsula.
Shower and thunderstorm chances around 50-60% along the I-4
corridor and 30-40% to the south on Saturday becoming 40-50% on
Sunday. Southeast winds increasing to around 10-15mph each
afternoon along the sea breeze.

Near normal temperatures expected, with highs in the upper 80s to
low 90s. Morning lows will also be seasonable, in the low 70s, but
mid-70s will be possible along the coast due to onshore flow.

Monday-Thursday (previous)...The ridge axis will continue
northward, settling in over the southeast US early next week.
Backing surface flow will become gradually more easterly into
Wednesday, ushering in comparatively drier air than previous days.
Peak PWATs falling to around 1.6"; thus, decreasing PoPs through
the end of the period. Models continue a decreasing trend in
shower and thunderstorm chances for next week. However, will
maintain mention for a chance of showers and isolated
thunderstorms and will reevaluate for future updates. Current
forecast mentions PoPs up to around 30%, with peak values across
the interior. Highs remaining in the upper 80s to near 90, with
morning lows in the low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Ongoing showers and lightning storms, mainly along the northern
inland terminals pushing towards the coast. Cell movement is
towards the NE around 20 KT. MVFR/IFR VIS and CIGs with passing
showers and storms. KMLB northward will be the main focus for
convection later this afternoon and evening. Convection is
expected to dissipate shortly after sundown. Winds are SE around
10-12 KT with gusts up to 20 KT possible this afternoon before
decreasing to around 5 KT overnight. Winds will then pick back up
to around 10-12 KT by late tomorrow morning, with the higher winds
occurring along the southern coastal terminals. Showers are
expected to resume by late morning/early afternoon with lightning
storms developing later in the afternoon. Current model guidance
is indicating cell motion will once again be NE around 20 KT, with
convection initially developing across the interior and pushing
towards the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Evening-overnight...Showers and storms will reach the local
coastal waters this afternoon into the evening as these will
affect the local waters through the evening hours. Localized gusty
winds and higher seas could accompany these storms. Then later
tonight, new development of showers and perhaps a few storms will
be possible over the offshore waters moving northward. Otherwise,
winds will range 10-15 kt with seas ranging between 3 ft
(nearshore) to 4 ft (offshore).

Saturday-Tuesday (previous)...High pressure over the local area
will maintain SE flow through the weekend, becoming E into early
next week. Winds 10-15kts through the period, especially along the
coast each afternoon as the sea breeze develops. Shower and
thunderstorm chances each day, though decreasing through Tuesday.
Seas 2-4ft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  88  73  87 /  40  40  20  30
MCO  72  91  73  91 /  50  60  30  40
MLB  74  88  75  88 /  40  40  20  30
VRB  73  88  74  88 /  30  40  20  30
LEE  73  90  73  91 /  40  60  30  50
SFB  72  90  73  91 /  50  60  30  40
ORL  73  91  75  91 /  50  60  30  40
FPR  72  88  73  88 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

Negron/Kelly/Watson

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
759 AM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-042100-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
759 AM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Numerous showers and a few lightning storms will develop over the
area while moving toward the north this afternoon. The main
threats from any storms will be gusty winds of 35 mph, occasional
lightning strikes, and locally heavy rainfall.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
Additional rain amounts up to two inches will be possible in some
areas which can experience training, and or multiple occurrences
of heavy rain. While including the rainfall from Thursday, some
locations may experience minor flooding and, or standing water
along low spots and roadways.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A Moderate risk for life-threatening rip currents will be present at
the beaches of Volusia, Brevard, and Indian River counties today.
To reduce your chance of being caught in the seaward pull of a
rip current, swim only within sight of a lifeguard, and never swim
alone.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Wind gusts of 30 to 35 knots, and occasional to frequent
lightning will be possible near any stronger storms which may
develop. The hazard of strong wind gusts and lightning will be
present over larger inland lakes as well as the Atlantic and
Intracoastal waters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
Showers with embedded storms are forecast each afternoon through
this weekend. Slow-moving downpours of 1 to 2 inches, cloud to
ground lightning strikes, and brief gusty winds will be possible
withing stronger storms. Standing water will likely occur in
poorly drained low lying areas which experience heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

Negron/Pendergrast