Areal Flood Advisory 47, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
400 PM EDT Tue Aug 3 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Evening-Tonight...Active afternoon for Osceola-Brevard southward
to Okeechobee and Martin counties as these areas had a few hours
of clearer skies while to their north, light rain stabilized the
area. Storms producing heavy rainfall, frequent lightning and
gusty winds are expected to continue across these areas through
late afternoon, remaining over the coastal counties through early
evening and either moving offshore of dissipating around late
evening. After sunset, short range models show light rain
lingering behind were storms were with possibly a few storms
moving in from the west. POPs for tonight were kept in the 35-50%
to account for these possibilities. Otherwise, low temps are
forecast to drop to the mid 70s.

Wednesday-Friday (Modified Previous Discussion)...Eastern CONUS
trough gets ejected/replaced by a slightly weaker short wave
trough which slides ESE into the MS/OH Valleys through the end of
the week. As the lead trough lifts out, the Atlantic mid level
ridge will rebuild westward into the Florida peninsula Thu-Fri.
With the trailing trough progged to be a little more amplified
than earlier runs, the surface ridge axis winds up being slightly
slower in lifting northward. Latest guidance shows it remaining
just north of Lake Okeechobee Wed-Thu, and near a MLB to Lake
Kissimmee line by Fri morning. This would keep local winds a
little more veered (S-SSW) along with deeper moisture remaining in
place over a good chunk of the CWA. ECSB should also be a little
later in developing with its inland push slowed/somewhat blunted.

Consequently, POPs are tweaked a little higher through the period:
80 north/70 south Wed, 60 areawide Thu, and 50 coast/60 inland Fri.
Max temps in the L90s through the period, except for U80s far north
Wed afternoon, owing to earlier onset/high coverage of showers and
storms there. Mins in the L-M70s. Max heat indices between 100-105F.

Saturday-Tuesday...Atlantic ridge will build northward across the
southern tier of the central-eastern CONUS, continuing to dominate
the local wx pattern this weekend into early next week. The Atlantic
ridge axis is progged to continue its slow northward trek, allowing
winds to gradually back from southerly this weekend to S-SE Mon-Tue.
Kept POPs in the mid-high scattered range though the period, with
slightly higher numbers over the interior. Temps look pretty close
to normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
A very messy TAF period, with numerous thunderstorms expected this
afternoon and showers from debris clouds throughout the night and
into tomorrow. Storms earlier today to the west have stabilized
the environment to the north, with KISM/KMCO/KSFB right on the
boundary, delaying the initiation of convection. Opted to keep
TEMPOs for those terminals, but dropped TEMPO for KLEE. Likely
multiple rounds of storms at the southern terminals. Tonight, all
terminals carry VCSH late 04Z-06Z, but cannot rule out additional
rounds of showers/storms, especially to the north. Tomorrow,
widespread showers and storms expected once again, with an early
start to showers and storms in the mid to late afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Evening-Tonight...As active weather continues to move offshore
this afternoon, mariners would need to keep an eye for storms
moving from the west through late in the evening. These storms
will increase winds and seas locally. After midnight, activity
should decrease but new development is expected to occur along the
gulf stream towards Wed morning hours. Otherwise, winds will
increase north of Sebastian Inlet to 15-20 kt with seas in the 2-4
ft range. Therefore, operators of small craft should exercise
caution.

Wednesday-Saturday (Modified Previous Discussion)...Axis of the
Atlantic surface ridge will remain positioned over the southern-
central legs through the end of the week. This will keep winds out
of the S to SW, backing onshore near the coast each afternoon.
The threat for strong offshore moving storms continues through the
period, especially for the Volusia and Brevard County waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  87  74  89 /  50  70  20  60
MCO  75  89  74  91 /  40  70  30  60
MLB  75  90  75  91 /  50  60  20  60
VRB  74  90  74  91 /  50  80  20  60
LEE  76  86  75  89 /  40  80  40  60
SFB  75  88  74  91 /  40  80  30  60
ORL  76  88  76  91 /  40  70  30  60
FPR  74  90  74  91 /  50  80  20  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

Negron/Rodriguez/Haley

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1123 AM EDT Tue Aug 3 2021

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-040100-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
1123 AM EDT Tue Aug 3 2021

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop into the
evening, moving east to northeast around 15 to 20 mph across east
central Florida and offshore.

Main storm threats will be frequent lightning strikes, strong
wind gusts up to 40 to 50 mph, and locally heavy rainfall.
However, can't rule out an isolated severe storm or two, producing
damaging winds around 60 mph. Also, a brief funnel cloud or weak
tornado could be possible with storms that interact with the east
coast sea breeze toward Brevard County and the Treasure Coast this
afternoon.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
Some slower moving and persistent storms will be capable of
producing locally heavy rainfall amounts up to 2 to 3 inches in a
short period of time. This could lead to standing water issues on
area roadways and across poor drainage areas.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop this afternoon
and continue into the evening. Some stronger storms will be
capable of producing wind gusts near or in excess of 34 knots
across inland lakes or as they push eastward and offshore.

.WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
A brief waterspout will be possible from storms that push offshore
of Brevard County and the Treasure Coast this afternoon.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
South to southwest winds will increase to 15 to 20 knots this
afternoon and evening over the offshore waters and also nearshore,
south of Sebastian Inlet. Small craft should exercise caution if
venturing into this portion of the adjacent Atlantic waters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening lightning storms will
continue through late week. Some stronger storms will be possible
each day, with the main threats including frequent cloud to
ground lightning strikes, torrential downpours, and wind gusts up
to 40 to 50 mph. Localized poor drainage flooding is possible in
areas that receive heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should monitor the weather and self activate if needed.

Negron/Weitlich

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