Areal Flood Advisory 13, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
410 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Current-Tonight... Numerous widespread showers and lightning storms
across east central Florida. Cell movement is from west to east
around 15-20 mph, with additional showers and storms moving into the
local area from the west coast. New developing storms may occur
along collisions between outflow boundaries and the sea breeze. The
east coast sea breeze has formed, but is pinned along the coast.
W/SW flow around 10-12 mph continues for much of the area as the weak
mid to upper level trough remains over ECFL, with wind speeds
expected to decrease overnight to around 5-10 mph. Convection is
expected to continue into this evening, dissipating after midnight.
Despite the numerous showers and storms and cloudy skies,
temperatures were warm once again today, with afternoon highs in the
upper 80s and low 90s. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s
with mostly cloudy skies.

Tuesday... The Weak mid to upper level trough will remain over the
local area through the time period, slowly moving down across the
peninsula through the day. Forecast soundings continue to indicate
cooler temperatures at the 500 mb level of -8C to -9C, as well as
ample moisture with PW values around 1.80-2.0 inches. The
combination of deep moisture, surface heating, boundary collisions,
and energy aloft will continue to support an environment for showers
and lightning storms to develop (60pct PoPs), though HiRes models
continuing to indicate the greatest chances will be south of
Orlando. The moderate westerly steering flow will aid in keeping the
majority of showers and storms on the eastern side of the peninsula
late day, and will allow the cell movement to once again be from
west to east around 15 to 20 mph. The east coast sea breeze may not
develop due to the strong offshore flow. Activity should taper off
thru mid to late evening with some ISOLD-SCT convection over the
local coastal waters overnight. Highs will once again be warm, with
afternoon highs in the upper 80s and low 90s with overnight lows in
the low to mid 70s.

Wed-Mon...(Previous Discussion) The aforementioned weak upper
troughing may continue for one more day, then another stronger
trough dropping southward will finally push the energy associated
with the weaker trough south into the southern peninsula late Wed
into Thu. However, as the stronger trough to the north slips off of
the mid Atlc coast into the western Atlc, mid-level energy returns
back northward (Fri-Mon). The surface ridge axis over the southern
FL peninsula early in the period will advance northward into the
central peninsula thru late week.

Similar conditions/convective parameters from Tue exist on Wed, so
we should see another active day for convection. Will continue near
60pct PoPs across much of the area. Continue mainly aftn/early
evening, scattered showers and lightning storms, for the remainder
of the extended. The mainly afternoon and evening activity will be
the result of local sea breeze interactions and diurnal effects.
Highs will be in the U80s to L90s with lows in the L-M70s.

The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor an area of
showers and thunderstorms over the Bay of Campeche (SW GOMEX)
associated with a broad trough. Slow development remains possible
over the next few days while this system moves slowly northward. A
tropical depression could develop late week. Differences remain in
medium range models for placement, timing, and potential strength of
any developing system, though it bears watching still.

&&

.Aviation... Numerous showers and lightning storms ongoing across
much, if not all terminals this afternoon, and is expected to
continue into this evening. TEMPO groups to all sites for MVFR
conditions with convection starting at 18/19Z. The strongest showers
will be capable of reducing VISBY to MVFR and IFR conditions or
lower, along with wind gusts of 30-35KT. Convection should push
offshore and begin dissipating toward sunset, with mainly vicinity
showers after 15/03Z. SW winds prevailing around 10-12 KT until the
sea breeze forms in the afternoon, backing the winds to SSE/SE along
the coast, before decreasing to around 5-10 KT and becoming SW once
again overnight. VFR conditions outside of convection through the
TAF period.

Tuesday will be similar to today, with showers starting in the
morning with storms activity ramping up in the afternoon, around
17/18Z. Current guidance is indicating numerous shower and storm
development in the afternoon, with cell movement once again from
the west, moving towards the east around 15-20KT.

&&

.Marine...
Current-Tonight... Numerous showers and lightning storms ongoing
across the Atlantic waters. Cell movement west to east, moving at 15-
20 KT. Current buoy 41009 observations show seas are 2 ft with a
dominate period of 9 seconds. Shower and storm activity is expected
into this evening, with main impacts being frequent lightning
strikes, wind gusts of 30-40 knots, and torrential downpours.
Outside of shower/storm activity, expect south to southwest winds
15-20 knots this afternoon south of Sebastian Inlet and becoming
10-18 KT across all the waters overnight. Seas 2-3 feet today,
building up to 4 feet offshore late tonight.

Tuesday... A weak mid to upper level trough remains over the local
waters, keeping the offshore steering flow in place, with wind
speeds of 15-20 KT. Afternoon and evening lightnings storms will
once again move from west to east around 15 to 20 KT. The east coast
sea breeze is not expected to form Tuesday, due to the offshore flow
being too strong. Seas will be 2-3 ft in the near shore waters and 3-
4ft in the offshore waters.

Wed-Sat... (Previous Discussion) Weak troughing over the region will
keep an offshore steering flow for afternoon/evening lightning
storms (some strong) across ECFL. However, steering flow becomes a
bit more southerly as we head into Fri-Sat. Mariners should keep an
eye to the sky westward and seek safe harbor ahead of approaching
storms. Winds and seas locally higher ahead of storms.

There will remain a 10-15 kt SW/W component of wind thru mid-week,
backing to S/SE on Fri-Sat, but occasional 15-20 kt winds for a
short time may be possible late afternoon/evening thru mid-week.
Seas generally 1-3 ft, but may approach 4 ft offshore on occasion
thru early Thu.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  90  74  92 /  50  50  20  60
MCO  74  89  75  91 /  50  60  20  60
MLB  73  89  74  90 /  50  60  20  50
VRB  72  90  72  90 /  50  60  20  50
LEE  74  88  75  90 /  50  50  20  60
SFB  74  90  75  92 /  50  60  20  60
ORL  76  90  77  92 /  50  60  20  60
FPR  72  90  72  90 /  50  60  20  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

Watson/Kelly/Pendergrast

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
518 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-150000-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
518 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Widespread showers and lightning storms will develop late this
morning and into this afternoon, lasting through this evening.
Much like yesterday, storm movement will be eastward around 15 to
20 mph across east central Florida. The primary threats in the
stronger storms will be gusty winds up to 50 mph, although one or
two storms may produce winds up to 60 mph, frequent cloud- to-
ground lightning strikes, heavy rainfall, and small hail up to
dime size. If threatening weather approaches or thunder is heard,
seek shelter in an enclosed building or automobile. Picnic and
beach shelters, as well as porches offer no protection from the
dangers of lightning.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
Storms will be capable of producing torrential downpours of 1 to
3 inches in a 60 to 90 minute period, which may produce ponding
or temporary poor drainage flooding of poorly drained roads, urban
and low lying areas. Flooding is also possible over areas where
training of thunderstorms occur.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
There is a moderate risk for life-threatening rip currents at all
Central Florida Atlantic beaches.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
A few stronger storms may produce wind gusts to around 45 knots on
inland lakes, as well as the intracoastal and nearshore Atlantic
waters today. Boaters should watch for storms approaching from the
west.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
Scattered-to-numerous thunderstorms are forecast each afternoon
and early evening, with the activity increasing in coverage
through mid week. A few stronger storms will be possible each
day, with cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, gusty winds and
torrential downpours. Offshore moving storms will also pose a
threat for locally higher winds and seas to mariners. A moderate
risk of rip currents will also continue.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should monitor the weather and self activate if needed.

Watson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
322 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

FLZ141-141945-
Coastal Volusia-
322 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN VOLUSIA COUNTY...

At 321 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Bunnell, moving
east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and funnel clouds are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ormond-By-the-Sea.

Funnel clouds can occasionally touch down and produce brief small
tornadoes. Move indoors and stay away from windows.

LAT...LON 2943 8107 2931 8101 2931 8115 2941 8116
      2942 8114 2943 8111 2942 8111
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 271DEG 23KT 2939 8119

Combs

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
341 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

FLZ047-142015-
Southern Brevard County-
341 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY...

At 340 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles south of
Camp Holly Fish Camp, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Palm Bay, Melbourne, Satellite Beach, Malabar and Indialantic.

LAT...LON 2793 8045 2786 8087 2808 8087 2809 8086
      2811 8086 2825 8058 2817 8055 2812 8054
      2802 8049
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 231DEG 22KT 2798 8079

Combs

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
409 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

FLZ045-053-142115-
Osceola-Orange-
409 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ORANGE AND NORTHERN
OSCEOLA COUNTIES...

At 407 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered over Campbell, or
over Intercession City, moving east at 20 mph. Additional strong
storms are expected to develop across Orange and northern Osceola
counties through 515 PM.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph, funnel clouds, and pea size hail are
possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Orlando, Kissimmee, Saint Cloud, Wedgefield and Windermere.

Torrential rainfall is also expected and may cause localized
flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Funnel clouds can occasionally touch down and produce brief small
tornadoes. Move indoors and stay away from windows.

LAT...LON 2861 8097 2860 8096 2856 8093 2853 8094
      2850 8088 2849 8088 2847 8087 2847 8090
      2845 8089 2843 8090 2841 8088 2839 8089
      2834 8086 2831 8086 2820 8153 2823 8154
      2851 8156
TIME...MOT...LOC 2007Z 251DEG 17KT 2827 8146

Combs

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
436 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 25 ENE PORT MAYACA      28.51N 80.18W
06/14/2021  M40 MPH          AMZ572             FL   BUOY

            NOAA BUOY 41009 MEASURED THUNDERSTORM GUST 35 KNOTS/40
            MPH.

&&

JCP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
439 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 WSW OAKLAND           28.54N 81.68W
06/14/2021  M0 MPH           Lake               FL   MESONET

            MESONET STATION SHADY HOLLOW LP MEASURED A WIND GUST OF
            36 KT/41 MPH.

0411 PM     TSTM WND GST     KISSIMMEE AIRPORT       28.29N 81.44W
06/14/2021  M40 MPH          OSCEOLA            FL   AWOS

            KISSIMMEE AIRPORT MEASURED A PEAK WIND GUST OF 35KT/40
            MPH FROM THE SW.

&&

KN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
457 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0454 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NW PALM BAY           28.01N 80.69W
06/14/2021  M3.69 INCH       Brevard            FL   MESONET

            MEASURED RAINFALL TODAY AT WEATHER UNDERGROUND SITE
            KFLPALMBAY256 IN PALM BAY.

&&

JCP