Special Weather Statement, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
442 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 442 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021)

Today through Wednesday:

This morning, a complex of thunderstorms driven by elevated
instability and lift provided by a shortwave will approach
southern Wisconsin. This will primarily bring chances for rain to
the northern tier of counties in our CWA. After this rain activity
exits to our east along with the shortwave, high pressure and
subsidence will win out, and skies should clear this afternoon.
Westerly to southwesterly winds will begin to advect higher
dewpoints into the area today so it'll begin to feel a bit
stickier today, and with warm air aloft, highs should rise into
the low 90s again over much of the area.

Tonight some uncertainty exists surrounding an additional round of
pop-up thunderstorms along an advancing cold front that kicked
off this morning's convection. By tonight the cold front should be
stalled somewhere over southern Wisconsin, and meso models show
storms forming as a weak 850mb jet runs into the front tonight,
but disagree on where exactly storms will go. Slight chance pops
will be maintain.

We should be relatively rain free for much of Wednesday, save for
a very slight chance for a pop-up storm along a lake breeze
Wednesday. The front will lift north as a warm front as a surge of
WAA builds into the area. It'll grow humid with dewpoints in the
low 70s and it'll be hot again with highs in the low 90s. Heat
indices west of Madison will likely approach the upper 90s.
Chances for rain will late Wednesday afternoon as a low pressure
system approaches from MN.

CMiller

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 442 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021)

Wednesday night through Monday:

A wave of low pressure is expected to track from srn MN to srn WI
Wed nt along a nw-se oriented the warm front. It will be
supported aloft by a weak shortwave trough within nwly mid level
flow around 50 kts. A good surge of warm, moist advection on the
nose of at least a wly 40 kt jet will result in convective
initiation over ne or east central MN and nw WI Wed aft-eve. PWs
will rise to around 2.0 inches with MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/KG
along and west of the warm front for the evening hours over srn
WI, with much lesser CAPE values toward Lake MI. The convective
mode should start as sct supercells and congeal into a SVR MCS
that will move across srn WI during the evening possibly into the
overnight. HP supercells may be embedded within the line given the
strong deep layer shear and SRH. Central WI is outlooked by SPC
with an Enhanced Risk with much of srn WI in a Slight Risk for SVR
tstorms during this period.

Nly flow and cold advection to prevail on Thu followed by high
pressure for Fri. The high will quickly shift swd with wly winds
and warm advection later Fri nt and Sat. Another Canadian cold
front will then pass Sat aft-eve. Only small chances for showers
and storms at this time. High pressure to then build into the
region for Sun-Mon.

Gehring

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 442 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021)

Thunderstorms will be possible this morning and then there will be
a slight chance of thunderstorms again this evening for terminals
in central WI as a cold front stalls over the area. VFR cigs and
vis are anticipated however, with visibility restrictions around
storms. Winds will be westerly, becoming more variable this
evening as the cold front stalls over southern WI. A lake breeze
will also be possible for lakeshore terminals during the very late
afternoon into the early evening.

CMiller

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 442 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021)

Westerly to southwesterly winds will become more variable tonight
as a cold front stalls over the area. Winds will then become
northerly for a time, before returning to southerly Wednesday
afternoon as a warm front rises northward. Winds overall are
expected to be light until Thursday, but complexes of
thunderstorms will be possible at times, mainly this morning, then
again more likely Wednesday evening into Thursday.

Locally, gusty winds on Thursday may warrant a small craft
advisory.

CMiller

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
620 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-281130-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
620 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There will be slight chances for storms in central Wisconsin
during the early morning hours today. There will then be another slight
chance for thunderstorms tonight mainly west of the longitude of
Madison.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Better chances for thunderstorms will arrive Wednesday evening
into Wednesday night as a complex of storms pushes south from
northern Wisconsin. Strong wind gusts will be possible with these
storms.

Heat indices will approach the upper 90s Wednesday, especially
west of Madison.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

LMZ643>646-281130-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
620 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There will be slight chances for storms in the Sheboygan nearshore
waters this morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Thunderstorm chances return Wednesday evening through Wednesday
night. Some strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible.

Building waves may require a Small Craft Advisory on Thursday for
southern nearshore zones.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-281130-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
620 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms will be likely this morning over the northern half
of the open waters. There is a slight chance for thunder over the
far southern tip of Lake Michigan tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There will be additional thunderstorm chances across the entire
Lake for Wednesday evening through Thursday.

www.weather.gov/mkx

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
843 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

WIZ056-271430-
Sauk-

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN SAUK COUNTY...

At 842 AM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near New Lisbon to near Hillsboro to near
La Farge. Movement was southeast at 50 mph.

Winds of 40 to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Reedsburg, Wisconsin Dells, Lake Delton, North Freedom, La Valle,
Rock Springs, Loganville, Ironton, Lime Ridge and Hill Point.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 4364 8979 4360 8976 4360 8972 4357 8973
      4356 8971 4340 8991 4330 9019 4355 9019
      4356 9031 4364 9031
TIME...MOT...LOC 1342Z 316DEG 43KT 4384 9018 4371 9037 4366 9069

KUROSKI