Special Weather Statement, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
230 PM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 230 PM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021)

Late This Afternoon through Thursday:

Line of strong thunderstorms will continue to march eastward
across southern Wisconsin through the late afternoon. Expect wind
gusts of 30 to 50 mph to continue to be the main threat. It's
looking like a break in the precipitation will occur over most of
the area late this afternoon and early evening. Focus shifts to
deepening low pressure moving from northern IA into central WI
this evening. The surface low will continue to move northeast,
dragging a cold front into southern WI overnight. Although the
atmosphere was worked over early today by the MCS moving through
southern WI, breaks in the cloud cover, and increased low level
convergence in the vicinity of the warm front attached to the
northeast moving surface low should result in more thunderstorms
developing across northern IA into southern MN and western WI this
evening. CAPE has increased to 1-3K joules with little CIN across
northern IA. These storms should push into southern WI during the
evening and overnight and may start to train or line up across a
part of the area. Precipitable water remains near record levels
from 1.7 to 2 inches for this time of year. Forward propagating
Corfidi Vectors remain easterly 20-25 kts but Meso-Beta elements
of MCS drops to less than 10 kts for about a 6 hour period
overnight. Any stronger storms will produce rainfall of 1-2+
inches per hour, and if they linger or redevelop along the
boundary, could see localized flash flooding overnight. Despite
the recent dry conditions, the ground/soil/non- pavement areas
remain firm and more impervious to soaking up the heavy rainfall,
resulting in an increased threat for flash flooding. Due to
uncertainty with regard to where the most favored area of flooding
would be, and recent dryness, wl hold off on posting Flash Flood
Watch for now, but wl be watching conditions closely this evening.

Low level jet pivots to the east and south of the area but wl
continue precipitation chances across the southern CWA due to
lingering mid-level low pressure trof and nearby surface boundary.

Kavinsky

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 230 PM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021)

Thursday night through Wednesday:

Blocking high pressure building into the central CONUS and
southern Canada will be bringing mostly quiet conditions to
southern WI for the bulk of this period. Shower chances may
increase later Tuesday into mid-week as a back door cool front
slips down from the north as the blocking ridge weakens slightly.

In the shorter term, a lingering frontal boundary located just to
the south and east of southern WI may bring a few showers or
storms to far southern WI Thursday night into Friday. Otherwise
dry conditions are expected elsewhere. Daytime temperatures should
be near or a little above seasonal normal for mid-July.

Kavinsky

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 230 PM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021)

A line of strong storms will continue to march east across parts
of southern WI this afternoon, weakening and diminishing from west
to east during the mid to late afternoon. Held off in introducing
any stronger wind gusts in eastern TAF's More scattered storms
will likely affect southern Wisconsin tonight, although timing and
strength of these storms is still uncertain. Heavy rainfall will
accompany of these storms with areas of MVFR and lower ceilings
and vsbys.

Kavinsky

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 230 PM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021)

Periods of thunderstorms will affect nearshore and Lake Michigan
open waters through tonight, focused mostly on the southern lake
on Thursday. Some of the storms will cause gusty winds, likely
reaching Special Marine Warning criteria late this afternoon and
tonight. Mariners will need to be alert for storms approaching
their location and be ready to seek harbor.

Kavinsky

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
226 PM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-151930-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
226 PM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Late This Afternoon and Tonight

The first of two rounds of thunderstorms will continue to march
eastward across southern Wisconsin through the late afternoon.
Brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds to 45 mph are possible with
these storms. Another round of thunderstorms is expected tonight,
mainly from mid-evening through late tonight. Heavy rainfall
producing localized flooding will be possible with this second
line of storms. In addition, severe thunderstorms with strong
winds, large hail, and an isolated tornado will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

The chance for thunderstorms continues into Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and tonight.

LMZ643>646-151930-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
226 PM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Late This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms will affect the nearshore waters late this afternoon
and early evening. Wind gusts may exceed 30 knots with this line
of storms.

More thunderstorms are expected later tonight. Severe
thunderstorms with strong winds, large hail, and an isolated
waterspout will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

The chance for thunderstorms will continue into Friday.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-151930-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
226 PM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Two rounds of thunderstorms are expected early this evening and
late tonight, but the second round will depend on how fast the
first round clears out. Severe storms will be possible with strong
winds as the main concern and the potential for large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

The chance for thunderstorms will continue across southern Lake
Michigan into Friday.

www.weather.gov/mkx

MBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
559 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSW LOGANVILLE        43.42N 90.05W
07/14/2021                   SAUK               WI   911 CALL CENTER

            *** 1 INJ ***
            REPORT OF ROOF DAMAGE TO A GARAGE ALONG WITH
            TREES DOWN ON SPRING VALLEY RD. TIME
            ESTIMATED VIA RADAR.

&&

WAGNER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
629 PM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021

WIZ051-058-059-150030-
Dodge-Washington-Fond Du Lac-

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT FOND DU LAC...
NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHEASTERN DODGE COUNTIES...

At 628 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Rosendale to near Beaver Dam.
Movement was east at 45 mph.

Winds of 40 to 50 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Fond Du Lac, West Bend, Waupun, Ripon, Mayville, North Fond Du Lac,
Kewaskum, Horicon, Lomira, Campbellsport, Theresa, Oakfield,
Rosendale, Brandon, Southern Lake Winnebago, Burnett, Taycheedah,
Ashford, Lamartine and Byron.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 4344 8816 4343 8871 4388 8884 4390 8876
      4389 8841 4394 8840 4394 8817
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 257DEG 40KT 4380 8875 4346 8891

CMILLER

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
720 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0522 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NORTH FREEDOM           43.46N 89.86W
07/14/2021                   SAUK               WI   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN NORTH FREEDOM. TIME
            ESTIMATED VIA RADAR.

&&

WAGNER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
726 PM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021

WIZ051-052-059-060-150100-
Sheboygan-Washington-Ozaukee-Fond Du Lac-

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN OZAUKEE...SOUTHEASTERN
FOND DU LAC...NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND SOUTHERN SHEBOYGAN
COUNTIES...

At 725 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Kewaskum,
moving east at 45 mph.

Winds of 30 to 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
West Bend, Kewaskum, Oostburg, Belgium, Fredonia, Cedar Grove,
Campbellsport, Random Lake, Newburg, Adell, Silver Creek, Beechwood,
Waubeka, Fillmore, Harrington Beach St Park, Boltonville, Batavia,
New Fane and Nabob.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 4356 8779 4350 8780 4349 8779 4348 8780
      4346 8780 4342 8784 4341 8830 4359 8830
      4364 8774
TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 255DEG 40KT 4352 8817

CMILLER