Special Weather Statement, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
315 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 309 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021)

Tonight through Tuesday night:

A south-southeast moving shortwave will shift through during the
evening hours. A few showers may linger into dusk, primarily for
lakeshore locations. Can't rule out a rumble of thunder, provided
one of the storms manages to utilize the meager elevated CAPE of
250 J/kg that RAP soundings show. Modestly gusty north winds will
gradually die down as the shortwave exits and the influence of
high pressure continues to fill in tonight. Tomorrow, another
shortwave will slide from north to south across the state. Models
do depict a few sprinkles to light showers over central Wisconsin
during the afternoon, but sfc moisture will be lackluster, so not
confident on anything reaching the ground with that activity.
Winds may pick up along the lakeshore as the shortwave shifts
overhead and drags a cold front with it. Temperatures will remain
seasonable again tomorrow, as winds will generally remain
northerly.

CMiller

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 309 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021)

Wednesday through Monday:

300mb ridging and a broad sfc high centered over the upper Great
Lakes will allow for dry conditions and clear skies on Wednesday
and north winds should continue to moderate temperatures.
Thursday, the ridge axis aloft should shift eastward over
Wisconsin, and the high pressure will shift into the lower Great
Lakes Region. This will bring sfc winds around to southerly and
southwesterly, and warm advection should increase, leading to a
potentially hot day. Models depict a moist axis approaching
Thursday afternoon and, during the evening hours, dewpoints
should increase ahead of a potential complex of thunderstorms.
It's too early to say how much rain these potential storms will
bring or if these storms will even materialize, but there is some
model agreement for a stormier period Thursday night.

Beyond, a collapsing front scours moisture behind these storms,
and high pressure builds in for the later hours on Friday into
the weekend. Temperatures will stay seasonable, as they will be
moderated by north winds again.

CMiller

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 309 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021)

VFR conditions are generally expected into the overnight hours and
gusty north winds will taper off as the night continues. Areas in
east- central Wisconsin and along the lakeshore stand the best
chance of seeing showers and possibly a rumble of thunder or two
during the remainder of the afternoon hours today.

Tomorrow, north winds will pick up along the lakeshore during the
afternoon as a cold front sinks southward over the region. Winds
during this time will shift slightly from northerly to
northeasterly.

CMiller

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 309 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021)

High pressure of 30.4 inches will gradually build into the area
today and Tuesday. Winds will remain somewhat light overnight and
a few showers and a rumble of thunder or two may occur over the
midsection of the lake along the Wisconsin shoreline through the
early evening hours. Winds will pick up again Tuesday afternoon
as a shortwave and cold front drop southward down the barrel of
the lake. Lighter winds Wednesday will be followed by increasing
southerly winds Thursday ahead of an approaching low and
thunderstorm activity Thursday night.

CMiller

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
225 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-151930-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
225 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A rumble or two of thunder will be possible for areas east of
Madison this afternoon and into the early hours of the evening.
Best chances will be along the lakeshore.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Monday

There will be a moderate swim risk tomorrow afternoon for roughly
shore parallel waves to 3 to 4 feet. This will be for the two
southernmost nearshore zones.

There is a chance for thunderstorms later Thursday into Friday
morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

LMZ643>646-151930-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
225 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a slight chance for thunderstorms this afternoon and into
the early hours of the evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Monday

Winds may briefly gust to just below small craft advisory criteria
Tuesday afternoon. There is a chance for thunderstorms later
Thursday into Friday morning.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-151930-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
225 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a slight chance for thunderstorms this afternoon and
early evening, mainly along the Wisconsin shoreline.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Monday

There is a chance for thunderstorms later Thursday into Friday.

www.weather.gov/mkx

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
405 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021

WIZ052-142145-
Sheboygan-

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN SHEBOYGAN COUNTY...

At 404 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Howards Grove,
moving south at 30 mph.

Winds of 40 to 50 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sheboygan, Sheboygan Falls, Howards Grove, Oostburg, Kohler, Haven,
Gibbsville and Johnsonville.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 4368 8770 4363 8774 4361 8785 4389 8798
      4389 8773 4381 8773 4376 8770 4374 8771
TIME...MOT...LOC 2104Z 337DEG 25KT 4389 8784

HANSEN