Special Weather Statement, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1018 PM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low will develop and impact the region today. A cold
front will then push through the area Monday night into Tuesday
morning, with high pressure building in behind it. A large low
pressure system will affect the region Thursday into the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 1000 PM Monday...The strong cold front is currently
crossing the central part of the state and is forecast to be on
the western doorstep of the CWA at midnight. The line is
expected to weaken and storms become more scattered in nature as
the front reaches the Inner Banks. Primary concern for stronger
storms remains damaging wind gusts and moderate helicity in the
low levels indicates that there is a non-zero threat of an
isolated tornado.

Previous Discussion...
As of 330 PM Monday...Low pressure currently SE of Cape Fear
will lift NNE offshore overnight. Meanwhile, a robust upper
trough and sfc cold front will push across the area after
midnight. A few light showers linger across the area this
afternoon but expect generally dry conditions most of the
evening. A broken line of showers is then expected to move
across the region after midnight just ahead of the cold front.
Significant shear will be in place with 0-6km bulk shear around
40-50 kt but instability will be limited with only around
500-1000J/kg which may allow for isolated stronger to marginally
severe storms. Damaging wind gusts would again be the primary
threat, although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 4 PM Monday...The cold front moves offshore Tuesday
morning as low pressure continues to strengthen off the Mid-
Atlantic and New England coast. A few showers could linger along
the NE NC coast Tuesday but a drying and clearing trend will
will prevail through the day. Breezy WNW winds will continue
with tight pressure gradients between the low offshore and high
pressure building in from the NW. Building heights aloft with
continued but weakening surface CAA keeps a dry and cool
forecast in place for Wednesday. Highs in the upper 60s to low
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 AM Mon...Active weather pattern through much of the
period with troughing generally persisting over the eastern US,
with cold front pushing offshore Tue morning and another late
week and this weekend.

Thursday through Sunday...Upper ridge axis slides east of the
area Thursday and deep moisture advection begins. Stacked low
pressure over the Tennessee Valley will slowly work eastward,
but destabilization will be slow, with the first part of
Thursday remaining mainly dry. A warm front is expected to cross
the area Thursday evening or overnight, signaling the return of
appreciable rain chances. Increased pops to likely Thu night.
Temps near normal during the day, with an increasingly warm and
humid airmass filling in Thursday night. Stacked low pressure
lifts across the southern Appalachians toward the Mid-Atlantic
Friday into the weekend. Precip expected to become more
scattered Friday through Friday evening as an occluding cold
front crosses the area. However, at least low end chance POPs
will continue Sat and Sat night to account for the close
proximity of the strong dynamic forcing associated with the
stacked low and the timing uncertainty of the cold front. Strong
CAA develops Sunday, with a drier and cooler couple of days
expected into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 720 PM Monday...Area TAF sites experiencing VFR flight
cats in a dry slot between the low offshore and a strong cold
front approaching the area from the west. The front will push
across rtes after midnight bringing periods of sub-VFR
conditions with scattered showers and possibly a few strong
thunderstorms. Have included short tempo groups for periods of
IFR CIGs as the front passes in an attempt to cover the
potential for CIGs to bounce down to IFR occasionally under
heavier rainfall associated with stronger cells embedded along the
front. Clearing conditions expected behind the front which will
be just off the coast just before sunrise. Strong CAA bringing
gusty winds around 25 kt through much of the day which could
bring cross wind issues at PGV and ISO.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Friday/...
As of 3 AM Mon...VFR expected to prevail through Thursday, with
early morning fog the only concern for Wednesday. Unsettled
weather returns later Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Tuesday/...
As of 1010 PM Monday...No changes in the near term as forecast
remains on track. Coastal waters currently in a bit of a cull
region between the Low offshore and the strong cold front
approaching from the west, creating variable winds 5 to 10 kts.
Central and Northern waters have risen above SCA criteria with
seas driven by the low pressure offshore. As the front gets
closer to the coast in the hours after midnight, winds become
SWerly at 15 to 20kts with gusts of 25kts from Sern waters
first, working Nward, raising more SCAs. Strong WNWerly surge
develops early Tuesday behind the departing cold front bringing
15-25 kt winds with higher gusts and seas building to 5-8 ft.
SCAs for all coastal waters, sounds, and rivers continue through
the end of the period.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Friday/...
As of 3 AM Mon...Post-frontal NW flow will steadily strengthen
through the Tuesday night as low pressure deepens quickly off
the Mid- Atlantic and NE coast. High confidence SCA conditions
with Gale conditions possible Tue evening into the first part of
Wed depending on the strength and location of the low off the
coast well to our north. Strong NW winds 20-25 kt early Wed,
slowly diminishing Wed night and Thu as ridging settles over the
area. Breezy winds expected again late week with a cold front
that could cross the area late Friday or Saturday. SE winds will
increase to 15-20 kt with a warm front Thu night, becoming SSW
15-25 kt Fri ahead of the cold front.

Seas peaking around 5-8 ft Tue night and Wed, then potentially
remaining elevated through much of the rest of the week as
persistent N to NE swell impacts the waters mainly north and
east of Cape Lookout. Dangerous seas 6-10 ft expected again late
week with the next system.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday
     evening for NCZ196-203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday
     for AMZ136-137.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to 5 PM EDT Wednesday
     for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to 11 AM EDT Wednesday
     for AMZ131.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to 2 PM EDT Wednesday
     for AMZ230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 2 PM EDT Wednesday
     for AMZ156.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 11 AM EDT Wednesday
     for AMZ158.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK/CEB
SHORT TERM...SK/MS
LONG TERM...CQD/CB
AVIATION...CQD/SK/CEB
MARINE...CQD/SK/CEB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
852 PM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021

NCZ196-203>205-270100-
East Carteret-Northern Outer Banks-Ocracoke Island-Hatteras Island-
852 PM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A cold front will move through the Carolinas today, reaching the
forecast area late tonight. There is potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms developing which could pose a threat for damaging
winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ195-199-270100-
West Carteret-Coastal Onslow-
852 PM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A cold front will move through the Carolinas today, reaching the
forecast area late tonight. There is potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms developing which could pose a threat for damaging
winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Moderate Rip Current Risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198-270100-
Martin-Pitt-Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Greene-Beaufort-
Mainland Hyde-Duplin-Lenoir-Jones-Pamlico-Northern Craven-
Southern Craven-Inland Onslow-
852 PM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A cold front will move through the Carolinas today, reaching the
forecast area late tonight. There is potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms developing which could pose a threat for damaging
winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1122 PM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021

NCZ029-044-079-080-260400-
Greene NC-Beaufort NC-Martin NC-Pitt NC-
1122 PM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northern Greene,
Pitt, Martin and northwestern Beaufort Counties through MIDNIGHT
EDT...

At 1121 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Ahoskie to 8 miles north of Robersonville
to 8 miles southeast of Wilson. Movement was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Greenville, Winterville, Williamston, Farmville, Bethel, Stokes, Bell
Arthur, Robersonville, Pactolus, House, Bruce, Pitt Greenville
Airport, Dowdy Ficklen Stadium, East Carolina University, Gold Point,
Jamesville, Fountain, Simpson, Hamilton and Oak City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3601 7669 3605 7660 3594 7665 3550 7738
      3556 7782 3580 7747 3582 7735 3595 7737
      3604 7728 3601 7721 3593 7719 3594 7705
      3586 7704 3590 7694 3586 7689 3584 7690
      3581 7690 3606 7665
TIME...MOT...LOC 0321Z 274DEG 29KT 3632 7695 3595 7729 3563 7785

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

8

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1159 PM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021

NCZ029-044-045-080-081-260445-
Washington NC-Beaufort NC-Mainland Hyde NC-Martin NC-Pitt NC-
1159 PM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Washington,
northeastern Pitt, northwestern Hyde, southeastern Martin and
northwestern Beaufort Counties through 1245 AM EDT...

At 1159 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Colerain to near Stokes. Movement was east
at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Greenville, Washington, Winterville, Williamston, Plymouth, River
Road, Stokes, Pinetown, Pactolus, Black Jack, Wenona, Hinson, Bunyan,
Pike Road, Westover, Pleasant Grove, Terra Ceia, Scuppernong, Old
Ford and Cape Colony.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3610 7621 3545 7684 3552 7749 3593 7704
      3586 7704 3590 7692 3581 7688 3589 7683
      3587 7674 3594 7669 3593 7674 3601 7669
      3602 7668 3605 7662 3606 7665 3607 7664
      3601 7651 3608 7641
TIME...MOT...LOC 0359Z 266DEG 27KT 3613 7676 3567 7726

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

8

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1200 AM EDT Tue Oct 26 2021

NCZ044-079-080-091-092-193-260445-
Greene NC-Jones NC-Beaufort NC-Lenoir NC-Northern Craven NC-Pitt NC-
1200 AM EDT Tue Oct 26 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Jones,
southern Greene, northern Lenoir, northwestern Craven, southern Pitt
and west central Beaufort Counties through 1245 AM EDT...

At 1200 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Roundtree to near Goldsboro. Movement was
east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Greenville, Kinston, Winterville, Ayden, La Grange, Grifton, Snow
Hill, Shelmerdine, Calico, Fort Barnwell, Dawson, Wilmar, Graingers,
Institute, Jason, Maury, Ormondsville, Roundtree, Core Point and
Lizzie.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3534 7782 3536 7782 3538 7780 3540 7780
      3543 7783 3546 7783 3555 7750 3546 7676
      3522 7739 3528 7783
TIME...MOT...LOC 0400Z 270DEG 43KT 3553 7750 3539 7800

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

41

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1232 AM EDT Tue Oct 26 2021

NCZ090>092-193-260445-
Jones NC-Lenoir NC-Northern Craven NC-Duplin NC-
1232 AM EDT Tue Oct 26 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of north central Jones,
southern Lenoir, west central Craven and northern Duplin Counties
through 1245 AM EDT...

At 1231 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from La Grange to near Beautancus. Movement was east
at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Kinston, Warsaw, La Grange, Mount Olive, Kornegay, Deep Run,
Beautancus, Wyse Fork, Albertson, Faison, Pink Hill, Calypso, Dover
and Sandy Bottom.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3520 7802 3518 7798 3517 7797 3517 7793
      3515 7789 3516 7789 3518 7784 3530 7783
      3530 7782 3524 7733 3501 7784 3506 7816
      3508 7816 3509 7817 3512 7817
TIME...MOT...LOC 0431Z 275DEG 43KT 3529 7781 3513 7810

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

41

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