Special Weather Statement, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
301 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue offshore while troughing persists
inland through Friday. A cold front will approach the area from
the north Friday evening and move offshore Saturday. The front
will stall south of the area into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Thursday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms
continue at mid-afternoon across the central and southern CWA
with heavy downpours and frequent lightning in the stronger
cells. Latest mesoanalysis shows surface-based CAPE values in
excess of 3000-3500 J/kg, but effective shear is fairly weak,
making localized flooding the primary threat for the rest of the
day with precipitable water values in excess of 2 inches and
dewpoints firmly entrenched in the 70s. Will maintain high
chance to low likely PoPs, especially Coastal Plains through
late afternoon, before scaling back to chance overnight. Low
temperatures tonight will mirror current dewpoints with lows in
the low to mid 70s area-wide.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
As of 3 PM Thursday...A cold front will drop south to near the
NC/VA border late in the day on Friday before crossing the area
later Friday night. Convergence along the front, coupled with a
very moist and unstable airmass, will lead to a rather wet day
on Friday with PoPs ramping up to likely for most areas in the
afternoon. High precipitable waters will lead to heavy downpours
with frequent lightning. Some localized flooding of low-lying
areas is possible. High temperatures Friday mainly in the mid
80s at most locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 240 AM Thu...Unsettled weather will continue through the
first part of the weekend, with periods of locally heavy rain
expected. Drying trend expected late weekend and next week.

Friday Night through Saturday...Unsettled pattern will continue
through Saturday, with periods of locally heavy rain expected.
Sfc boundary will sink into the area Friday evening and
Saturday, will be enough to support scattered to numerous
showers and storms. Frontal boundary may stall across portions
of the area Fri night and Sat, acting as an additional focus for
convection. Isolated strong storms possible, but given little
shear, locally heavy rain will be the main threat into the
weekend with PWATs 2-2.25 inches...which could lead to minor
flooding. Temps remain very warm and muggy, with highs 80-90 deg
Fri, and lows generally low 70s. A few degrees cooler for Sat
with the front pushing through and NE flow developing.

Sunday through Thursday...Low pressure will continue to
strengthen along the frontal boundary to the south Sunday, grad
pushing ENE away from the Eastern US Sun night and Mon. Isolated
to widely scattered showers and storms expected Sun with temps
near climo, highs in the 80s. A cold front is progged to push
through the area Tuesday, while aloft low becomes vert stacked
over southern Ontario/Quebec and deep troughing develops over
the Eastern US. Sfc high pressure is forecast to build in
through mid week, suggesting a drying trend. Mon and Tue look
like the warmest days of the week with ridging aloft. Could see
highs in the low 90s for some inland spots. Cooler and more
pleasant airmass arrives mid week, with highs in the 80s with
overnight lows 60-70 deg.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 18Z Friday/...
As of 130 PM Thu...Tricky aviation forecast this afternoon with
multiple rounds of scattered convection likely resulting in
several brief periods of sub-VFR conditions. Already seen some
quick drops at EWN and ISO with developing shower activity.
Expecting two distinct rounds of showers and storms to be around
the terminals in the period...the first now occurring and a
second nocturnal band advancing across the region from west to
east. This effectively means VCTS are possible from now straight
through 09Z.

When convection is not around, predominantly VFR conditions are
expected until tonight with low stratus forecast to develop
especially for terminals north of OAJ, resulting in MVFR to
possibly IFR cigs through a good chunk of Fri morning.

LONG TERM /Friday Night through Tuesday/...
As of 240 AM Thu ...Guidance shows widespread IFR/LIFR ceilings
developing Fri night and persisting through mid day Saturday,
with VFR returning Saturday night. Areas of fog and low stratus
are possible each morning with moist low levels. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms expected through Sat with
periods of sub-VFR likely.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Tonight and Friday/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...Winds at mid-afternoon are generally 15
knots or less on all waters and SE over the far northern tier
and southwest elsewhere. Seas are generally 2-3 feet. Some
slight uptick in the winds are possible through the early
evening with 15-20 knots, especially central waters. With front
advancing south into the area, winds increase Friday and have
issued Small Craft Advisories for the coastal waters south of
Cape Hatteras as 15-25 knot SW winds are expected with seas
building to 4-6 feet during the day Friday.

LONG TERM /Friday Night through Tuesday/...
As of 240 AM Thu...SW winds 15-25 kt Fri night, and SCA
conditions continue, mainly south of Oregon Inlet and the
Pamlico Sound, with gusty winds and building seas. The front is
progged to push through the waters Fri night and Sat. Gusty NE
winds will develop behind the front 15-25 kt, likely keeping
seas at 4-6 ft, highest north of Ocracoke. NE/ENE winds diminish
to 15 kt or less by Sun afternoon, though moderate onshore flow
may keep seas elevated at 4-6 ft into Sun eve. Light winds
early Mon, becoming SSW 10-15 kt by Mon evening with seas 2-4
ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/MS
MARINE...CTC/CQD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
434 AM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198-203-110845-
Martin-Pitt-Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Greene-Beaufort-
Mainland Hyde-Duplin-Lenoir-Jones-Pamlico-Northern Craven-
Southern Craven-Inland Onslow-Northern Outer Banks-
434 AM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Showers and thunderstorms will have the potential to produce locally
heavy rain with flash flooding of low-lying and poor drainage area
possible. The threat will be highest during the afternoon and
evening hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to have the potential to
produce locally heavy rain and flooding across the area Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ195-196-199-204-205-110845-
West Carteret-East Carteret-Coastal Onslow-Ocracoke Island-
Hatteras Island-
434 AM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Moderate Rip Current Risk.

Showers and thunderstorms will have the potential to produce locally
heavy rain with flash flooding of low-lying and poor drainage area
possible. The threat will be highest during the afternoon and
evening hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to have the potential to
produce locally heavy rain and flooding across the area Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
202 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

NCZ196-101845-
East Carteret-
202 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CARTERET COUNTY...

At 201 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Stacy, or 11
miles southwest of Cedar Island. The storm is nearly stationary,
moving southeast less than 5 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sealevel, Atlantic, Davis, Williston, Open Grounds Farm and Stacy.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3490 7661 3500 7643 3488 7630 3477 7652
TIME...MOT...LOC 1801Z 326DEG 3KT 3490 7647

41

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
256 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

NCZ194-195-101930-
West Carteret-Southern Craven-
256 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN CRAVEN AND
SOUTHWESTERN CARTERET COUNTIES...

At 255 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Newport, moving
south at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Havelock, Morehead City, Newport, Wildwood, North Harlowe, Crab Point
Village and Mitchell Village.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3486 7698 3493 7678 3472 7669 3468 7694
TIME...MOT...LOC 1855Z 343DEG 13KT 3483 7687

41

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