Special Weather Statement, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
701 PM EDT Thu Jun 3 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather will continue through Friday as a cold front
approaches and gradually dissipates. High pressure builds
closer to the area this weekend, with drying conditions likely.
High pressure continues offshore next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 700 PM Thurs...Very wet weather is expected through
Friday across Eastern NC. Some locations have already received
2-4" of rain since Tuesday with 1-2" common west of Highway 17
and north of Highway 70. Already high PW values are forecast to
increase to above 2" overnight into Friday. As the upper trough
approaches and increases upper level divergence, lift will be
maximized over the area tonight through Friday. Currently
widespread showers with embedded areas of thunderstorms are
occurring across the region and will persist through the evening
hours. As lift becomes maximized after midnight, more
widespread heavy showers and thunderstorms will develop. The
heaviest rainfall axis initially will be inland /west of Highway
17/ then spread east after 7Z to coastal areas. 2-4" of
additional rainfall with locally heavier amounts will be
possible with this activity and could lead to flooding in poor
drainage areas. Thus, the Flash Flood Watch has been extended
to cover all of Eastern NC except for Hatteras and Ocracoke
Islands. The Friday morning commute will be affected with poor
visibilities and deep ponding on area roads due to the heavy
rains making for hazardous driving conditions. Muggy lows mostly
70 to 75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
As of 700 PM Thu...Numerous shra and a few tsra with torrential
downpours ahead of weakening cold front will grad push off the
coast by late Fri morning. Additional shra and tsra expected to
redevelop during the day with weak upr trf to the W and building
instab. Will have likely pops inland to chc cst in the aftn and
if get enuf instab will have threat for some stronger to
marginally svr storms. Highs again mostly lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 545 AM Thursday...

Weekend...The upper level trough remains over the area before
finally pushing offshore late Sunday, fueling chances for
overnight showers/stray tstorms to start the weekend. Kept PoPs
at slight/chance over the coast in the mornings and working
inland as the days progress. Typical for early summer, tstorms
possible as instability increases through the day.

Early Next Week...Upper level low breaks off the trough as it
slides offshore. Ridging builds in from over the Gulf states
north to Michigan with another Low centered over Texas. This
L-H-L sandwich pattern remains for most of the week and keeps
upper flow meridional. Elongated High at the SFC provides Serly
flow through the period keeping things warm a moist with
dewpoints in the 70s and highs in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 700 PM Thu...Aviation conditions will be highly variable
this evening with heavy showers and thunderstorms producing IFR
conditions with periods of VFR between the frequent showers.
Late this evening ceilings should settle in the MVFR range with
widespread heavy showers producing IFR somewhat drier conditions
are expected late Fri morning with less in the way of shower
activity but daytime heating will lead to destabilization and
the redevelopment of at least scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 4 AM Thursday...Rain lingers from overnight Thursday
making sub-vfr cats possible with fog/stratus. CIGs improve
through the day but chances of scattered showers and storms
remain. Mostly cloudy conditions Friday gradually improve
through the weekend as the mid/lower levels slightly dry from
their peak Friday with rain chances limited to the coast in the
morning building inland with afternoon heating. Early morning
fog possible through the weekend with moist low levels.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Fri/...
As of 700 PM Thu...Weakening cold front will approach from the
W with high pres offshore. SSW winds expected to grad increase
tonight into Fri morn with many mdls showing at least gusts aoa
25 kts for a period central and srn waters. Have put up a SCA
starting overnight and cont into Fri or Fri evening for Pamlico
Sound and cstl wtrs S of Oregon Inlet. With the gusty winds have
some 6 ft seas developing outer central and srn wtrs overnight
and cont thru Fri.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 4 AM Thursday...Seas subside through the weekend as S/SW
winds slightly calm to around 10-15kts, northern waters around 3
feet and waters south of Hatteras 3 to 4 feet Saturday before
laying down to 3 feet across the area Sunday with Serly winds
around 10kts.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for NCZ045>047-080-
     081-092-094-193>196-198-199-203.
     Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for NCZ029-044-079-
     090-091.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 5 PM EDT Friday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 11 PM EDT Friday
     for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 PM EDT Friday
     for AMZ156-158.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RF/JME
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...JME/SGK/CEB
MARINE...RF/JME/CEB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
247 PM EDT Thu Jun 3 2021

NCZ045>047-080-081-090>092-094-193-194-198-203-041900-
Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Beaufort-Mainland Hyde-Duplin-
Lenoir-Jones-Pamlico-Northern Craven-Southern Craven-Inland Onslow-
Northern Outer Banks-
247 PM EDT Thu Jun 3 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Numerous showers and a few thunderstorms will continue into the
evening with an isolated strong to severe storm possible. Locally
heavy rain expected at times this afternoon and tonight possibly
producing minor flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop again Friday and a
few could become strong to marginally severe with damaging winds the
main threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ195-196-199-204-205-041900-
West Carteret-East Carteret-Coastal Onslow-Ocracoke Island-
Hatteras Island-
247 PM EDT Thu Jun 3 2021

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Moderate Rip Current Risk.

Numerous showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop
late tonight with very heavy in spots possibly producing minor
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Locally heavy rain could lead to localized flooding early. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop again later Friday and a few
could become strong to marginally severe with damaging winds the
main threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ029-044-079-041900-
Martin-Pitt-Greene-
247 PM EDT Thu Jun 3 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop again Friday and a
few could become strong to marginally severe with damaging winds the
main threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.