Special Weather Statement, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
627 AM EDT Thu May 27 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move south into the region today then
gradually dissipate tonight into Friday as high pressure
continues offshore. A slow moving cold front will approach the
area Saturday and push offshore Sunday. High pressure will build
behind the front early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 620 AM Thu...No signif changes planned. Some isold
convection crossed srn OBX earlier but now offshore. Bulk of
morn shld remain rain free with wdly sct to sct convection
developing from mid day on.

Prev disc...A weakening cold front will sag slowly S into the
region today. This weak front coupled with a mid lvl short wave
and decent instab will lead to wdly sct to sct convection
developing around mid day and cont thru the aftn. Best cvrg
looks to be over the nrn tier with little if and precip over srn
cst where sea breeze will push inland. Will cont chc pops nrn
tier to slight chc S with beaches from Cape Hat south dry. Temps
will range from 80 to 85 NE cst with developing onshore flow to
90 to 95 SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
As of 230 AM Thu...Expect convection to mainly dissipate by
around 00Z with loss of heating and weak short wave moving off
the cst. Shld see PC to mclr skies overnight with muggy lows in
the upr 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 315 AM Thursday...A hot and dry pattern will persist into
late week with temps staying above climo for late May. Dominant
ridge breaks down by the weekend as a more active weather
pattern emerges.

Friday through Sunday...Upper level ridging pattern shifts
south in response to a trough aloft moving into the Ohio River
Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic region by Saturday. The surface
ridge shifts offshore Fri, followed by a cold front moving
south-southeast into the region during the day on Saturday
lingering along the coast through Sunday, presenting the next
best chance for measurable precipitation through the long term
forecast period. Global guidance continues to come into better
agreement, increasing confidence on precip chances Sat into
Sun. Afternoon highs remaining the mid 90s Friday, then fall
into the low/mid 80s Saturday in response to the front, with low
to mid 70s for max temps on Sunday (roughly 10 degrees cooler
than normal for late May).

Monday through Wednesday...the upper trough will slowly shift
into New England Monday with a return of the upper ridge over
the Southeastern U.S. by Tuesday. A surface ridge builds across
Eastern NC by Mon. and shifts off the NC/VA coast Tues into Wed.
Guidance is in better agreement with 27th/00Z runs, indicating
slightly higher confidence in mostly dry pattern for Mon/Tues.
With return southeasterly flow setting up on Wednesday due the
surface ridge shifting even farther offshore, held onto slight
chance PoPs for potential convection across the area on Wed. High
temps rebound Mon., climbing into the upper 70s inland (low 70s
coast), then low 80s on Tues/Wed (mid 70s coast).

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06Z Fri/...
As of 620 AM Thu...VFR will cont to dominate. Sct mid and high
clouds will cont thru the morn. Weak bndry sagging into the
region coupled with strong heating will lead to sct to bkn Cu
this aftn. Wdly sct to sct convection will develop but cvrg
looks better NE of TAF sites so will only add vcnty mention at
EWN. Whatever convection develops this aftn will rapidly end
this evening with pc to mclr skies overnight. Appears will have
enuf of a light S breeze to limit threat of late night fog.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 320 AM Thursday...VFR conditions will prevail through
Saturday morning, then sub-VFR conditions likely Saturday
afternoon through Sunday as a cold front moves into the region
and lingers along the coast with showers and thunderstorms
possible. The front will move offshore late Sunday and away from
the region on Monday, returning aviation conditions to VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Today and tonight/...
As of 620 AM Thu...Fcst on track with no changes planned to
winds/seas.

Prev disc...SW flow in the 10 to 20 kt range will cont rest of
the night with high pres offshore. A weak front will sag S thru
the nrn half of the region today with flow N of the front
shifting to NE to E mainly aob 10 knots. S of the front winds
will cont out of the SW close to 15 kts. Seas will be mainly 2
to 4 feet with poss a few lingering 5 foot seas early central
wtrs. The weak front will grad dissipate tonight with cont SW
winds close to 15 kt srn tier while across the N winds become S
around 10 kt. Seas will cont at 2 to 4 ft tonight...highest
outer wtrs S of Cape Hatteras.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 325 AM Thursday...Winds SW through Friday as an offshore
surface high strengthens, with winds relaxing to 10-15 kts and
seas 2-4 ft. Conditions deteriorate Saturday as a cold front
moves through the waters from north to south by late afternoon.
Winds shift N/NE by late Sat afternoon with seas beginning to
build from north to south by Sat evening. Next round of SCAs
expected by Saturday Night and could last into Memorial Day,
especially north of Ocracoke.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 5/27 (Thursday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         96/1989   (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    89/2019   (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville       96/1972   (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    88/2006   (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          98/2019   (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)

Record High temps for 5/28 (Friday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         95/1941   (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    88/2019   (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville       98/2019   (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    94/2019   (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          93/2019   (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/RF
MARINE...DAG/RF
CLIMATE...MHX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
342 AM EDT Thu May 27 2021

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198-280745-
Martin-Pitt-Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Greene-Beaufort-
Mainland Hyde-Duplin-Lenoir-Jones-Pamlico-Northern Craven-
Southern Craven-Inland Onslow-
342 AM EDT Thu May 27 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ195-196-199-203>205-280745-
West Carteret-East Carteret-Coastal Onslow-Northern Outer Banks-
Ocracoke Island-Hatteras Island-
342 AM EDT Thu May 27 2021

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Moderate Rip Current Risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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