Special Weather Statement, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
430 PM EDT Fri May 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push through the area tonight from the west.
High pressure then builds in tomorrow, and moves offshore Sunday.
A cold front will cross the region late Monday, with cooler
high pressure moving in mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 320 PM Fri...As a weak area of low pressure continues to
move off the coast, a cold front approaches from the west, with
additional showers and thunderstorms developing on or ahead of
it. Will continue high chance and likely PoPs this afternoon and
evening as this line of showers and storms pushes through the
area to the coast.

Behind the front winds will turn to the west and increase, and
skies will clear rapidly tonight. Cooler high pressure will move
in overnight, and winds will slowly calm overnight. Expect good
radiational cooling, with some spots decoupling inland, and have
lows dropping into the the mid to upper 40s across most inland
spots, with temps remaining in the 50s along the beaches and
OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
As of 350 PM Fri...High pressure will remain ridging into the
area from the SW tomorrow, while an upper trough passes by to
the north. This will increase the gradient over Eastern NC,
leading to gusty westerly winds 20-30 mph. Much drier air will
also filter into the area, and combine with low fuel moistures
to produce dangerous fire weather conditions possible (See Fire
Weather Section below).

Low level heights remain fairly similar, but downsloping flow
may yield temps reaching the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 415 PM Fri...A dry weekend is forecast before a strong
front approaches and crosses the region late Monday into
Tuesday. High pressure builds in from the north through midweek,
encouraging the development of a late-season CAD event. Another
coastal low could impact the Carolinas at the end of the
period.

Saturday Night and Sunday...After a weak backdoor front passes
through the area Saturday night, southwesterly flow will
increase gradually Sunday ahead of an approaching frontal
system. Consequently, highs rise back into the low 80s for most
inland locales. A surge of 25-30 mph winds over the coastal
waters translates to a breezy Sunday night for OBX.

Monday through Thursday...Guidance in reasonable agreement next
front will approach the Carolinas Monday morning and cross the
CWA late in the day, bringing an increased chance of showers and
storms. With better run-to-run consistency now introduced
likely PoPs to the forecast. Highs will be the highest in the
period, climbing into the mid to upper 80s.

The front will cross the region by Tuesday morning and stall
over the Gulf States through midweek as high pressure builds in
from the north. There is an increasing signal in long term
guidance for a late-season cold air dam to develop and adjusted
temperatures down considerably Wed/Thu as NBM is usually several
degrees too warm for these features.

Another coastal low may impact the region at the end of the
period, although as is typical details are sparse with poor
model agreement. Kept at least chance PoPs in the forecast,
leaning towards a more consistent ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through Tomorrow Afternoon/...
As of 415 PM Fri..Mostly VFR conditions are expected through
the short term. Scattered convection this afternoon and evening
could bring temporary sub-VFR conditions as a cold front crosses
the region. Thereafter, skies will clear with VFR conditions
remaining. Tomorrow, skies remain mostly clear, with winds
becoming westerly and gusty in the afternoon.

LONG TERM /Sat through Tuesday/...
As of 310 AM Fri...High confidence in VFR conditions for the
weekend with high pressure passing to our south. Next cold front
crosses the terminals Monday with brisk SW winds likely gusting
20-25 at times in the afternoon. Scattered showers and tstorms
will bring localized areas of sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Tomorrow/...
As of 420 PM Fri...Winds are expected to increase this evening
ahead of and behind a cold front. Small craft advisories are
set to go into effect for the coastal waters south of Oregon
Inlet as well as the Pamlico Sound later this evening.

Winds will become NW 20-25 kts late this evening through most of
tonight, before subsiding slightly to W 10-20 kts tomorrow
morning. As the gradient pinches between high pressure to the
SW and low pressure to the NE, winds will pick back up again
tomorrow, becoming WSW 15-25 kts, with gusts close to 30 kts.
Seas will be 2-3 ft this evening, and then increase to 3-5 ft
through tomorrow morning. By tomorrow afternoon, seas increase
to 4-6 ft across the southern and central waters.

LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...
As of 410 PM Fri...High pressure shifts south of the waters and
offshore Sunday, with winds surging out of the SW late Sunday
and all of Monday ahead of the next approaching cold front. SCA
conditions are likely, and with a prolonged fetch seas will
build up to 6-8 feet Monday. Front sweeps offshore late Monday
night into Tuesday, resulting in winds veering northerly and
weakening through Tuesday. SCA conditions should come to an end
sometime Tue morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 400 PM Fri...Critical fire weather conditions are likely
to develop tomorrow. A combination of gusty westerly winds 20 to
30 mph, low relative humidities 20 to 30 percent, and very dry
fuel moistures will lead to increased fire danger conditions
across Eastern North Carolina.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 PM EDT
     Saturday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ135.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...SGK/MS
MARINE...SGK/MS
FIRE WEATHER...MHX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
407 AM EDT Fri May 7 2021

NCZ029-044>046-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-204-080815-
Martin-Pitt-Washington-Tyrrell-Greene-Beaufort-Mainland Hyde-Duplin-
Lenoir-Jones-Pamlico-Northern Craven-Southern Craven-West Carteret-
East Carteret-Inland Onslow-Coastal Onslow-Ocracoke Island-
407 AM EDT Fri May 7 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered to numerous showers and few thunderstorms are expected
today ahead of a cold front. A couple of the storms could become
strong to marginally severe with hail and gusty winds. The threat for
stronger storms will be from mid morning to late afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ047-203-205-080815-
Mainland Dare-Northern Outer Banks-Hatteras Island-
407 AM EDT Fri May 7 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
426 PM EDT Fri May 7 2021

NCZ091-072100-
Lenoir-
426 PM EDT Fri May 7 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN GREENE AND LENOIR
COUNTIES...

At 425 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Walnut Creek,
or near Goldsboro, moving southeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kinston, La Grange, Deep Run, Dawson, Graingers, Institute, Kinston
Regional Jetport and Sandy Bottom.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 3536 7782 3537 7780 3537 7777 3538 7770
      3537 7770 3535 7768 3535 7764 3537 7762
      3535 7748 3508 7761 3518 7783
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 293DEG 26KT 3536 7788

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
457 PM EDT Fri May 7 2021

NCZ091-092-193-072145-
Jones-Lenoir-Northern Craven-
457 PM EDT Fri May 7 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL JONES...CENTRAL
LENOIR...WEST CENTRAL CRAVEN AND NORTHEASTERN ONSLOW COUNTIES...

At 456 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Kinston, moving
southeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kinston, Phillips Crossroads, Deep Run, Comfort, Tuscarora, Pleasant
Hill, Wyse Fork, Kinston Regional Jetport, Dover, Sandy Bottom, Cove
City and Trenton.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 3536 7762 3516 7714 3493 7732 3494 7733
      3493 7736 3515 7777
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 302DEG 31KT 3522 7761

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