Special Weather Statement, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
620 AM EDT Fri Apr 9 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak stationary front across Eastern North Carolina this
morning will lift north of the area as a warm front this
evening. Weak low pressure will move along the warm front
tonight, followed by a cold front pushing through on Sunday.
High pressure will build in from the west early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 620 AM Friday...The weather pattern will begin to become
more active beginning this afternoon then continue into the
weekend. A stationary front located across Eastern NC this
morning will begin to lift northward late today into this
evening. An area of showers just off of the coast between Capes
Lookout and Hatteras could clip the adjacent coastal areas this
morning. As the tail end of a mid level vorticity maximum passes
across the area late today, it will help to trigger scattered
showers and thunderstorms during peak heating, especially across
the northern half of the area closest to the retreating warm
front. Mid level (700-500 MB) lapse rates are forecast to be 7+
C/km which will support strong updrafts and thus potentially
severe thunderstorms despite marginal shear. MU CAPES will be
1500-2000 J/Kg supporting a damaging wind/large hail threat. A
brief tornado will be possible in vicinity of the warm front
near the NC/VA border. The SPC is monitoring the Marginal Severe
risk area currently across Eastern NC for a possible upgrade to
a Slight risk later today. Highs are expected to be in the 70s
along the coast to mid 80s inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
As of 620 AM Friday...Strong to possibly severe convection will
be ongoing in the early evening, especially inland (west of
Highway 17 and north of Highway 264). The storms should begin to
rapidly weaken after 3Z with the loss of heating and the mid
level impulse moving out of the area. Could see lingering
showers overnight but coverage will be isolated to widely
scattered. Lows will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 410 AM Fri...The long-term period beings with a deep
closed low over the central CONUS, lifting and eventually
stalling over the Great Lakes by Sunday morning. Meanwhile,
strong shortwave trough is forecast to dive out of the Canadian
Rockies, closing over the Upper Midwest and helping kick the
stalled upper low out of the eastern CONUS late Sunday night
into Monday. Ensembles are in good agreement a blocking pattern
sets up over the CONUS through the middle of next week as the
new closed low stalls over the Great Basin.

Saturday and Sunday...A few isolated showers are likely to be
ongoing in the vicinity of a stalled frontal boundary Saturday
morning. The front is expected to lift northward during the day,
placing eastern NC firmly in the warm sector. Two rounds of
precip anticipated tomorrow - the first being a more typical
diurnal round of storms in the afternoon and dissipating with
loss of heating, and a second round ahead of a pre-frontal
trough. Despite forecast MUCAPEs of 1000-1500 J/kg tomorrow,
overall shear appears meager and not expecting any organized
severe threat although a stronger storm is certainly not out of
the picture. Shear increases as a pre-frontal trough approaches
overnight, but with decreasing instability the overall severe
threat remains low.

Showers and storms develop again Sunday ahead of the main front
before it crosses the region overnight. The NAM is hinting at
MUCAPEs of 1000+ J/kg and slightly better bulk shear of 25-30
kt, pointing to a marginal threat of more organized severe
storms. SPC has our area in a Marginal Risk of severe storms for
the period.

Monday through Thursday...A few lingering showers for OBX as
the front exits Mon morning, otherwise drier weather settles
into the area. Next front crosses late Tuesday and Wednesday
and although it has less moisture to work with, guidance
ensemble does hint at some showers and possibly a storm as it
drops in from the west. From here uncertainty increases
considerably as guidance disagrees on both where this front
stalls and the timing of upper level disturbances sparking
rounds of precipitation. There is a weak signal for a wave of
low pressure to lift across the Carolinas at the end of the
period but will keep PoPs at low-end chance for now.

High temperatures slightly above average through Monday,
falling to around average behind the second front. Lows remain
slightly above average through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 620 AM Friday...Pred VFR conditions expected through
early afternoon, then there will be potential for periods of
sub-VFR conditions late this afternoon and this evening in
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog will
be possible late tonight, especially in areas that received
rainfall.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 415 AM Fri...Ocnl sub- VFR conditions are possible
Saturday and Sunday afternoon with the development of showers
and thunderstorms. Cold front sweeps across the terminals late
Sunday night into Monday. High pressure builds in from the west
ushering in predominantly VFR conditions and Tuesday. Another
cold front will begin to cross the area late Tuesday bringing a
chance of widely scattered showers and storms with possible
localized restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 620 AM Friday...Veering winds 10-15 kt will occur across
the waters today and tonight as a warm front slowly lifts north
into VA. Winds are currently E-SE and will become SE-S this
afternoon and then S overnight with speeds diminishing to 5-10
kt after 6Z. Seas will continue 2-4 ft through tonight with 5 ft
seas expected across the outer waters.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 425 AM Fri...Boating conditions expected to slowly
deteriorate tomorrow as frontal system approaches from the west.
S winds 10-15 kt through the afternoon increase to 20-25 kt
particularly for southern and central waters and continuing
through Sunday night before the front crosses the waters. This
will drive seas to their peak of 6-8 feet by late Sunday over
the central waters. SCA advisories will likely be needed either
this afternoon or tomorrow morning.

Winds veer NW behind the front at 10-15 kt, becoming variable at
10 kt or less as high pressure builds into the area. This will
aid seas in quickly falling to 2-3 feet by Tuesday morning. SW
winds increase late Tues to 15 kt or so ahead of another front,
nudging seas back to 3-4 feet.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...JME/MS
MARINE...JME/MS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
414 AM EDT Fri Apr 9 2021

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205-100815-
Martin-Pitt-Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Greene-Beaufort-
Mainland Hyde-Duplin-Lenoir-Jones-Pamlico-Northern Craven-
Southern Craven-West Carteret-East Carteret-Inland Onslow-
Coastal Onslow-Northern Outer Banks-Ocracoke Island-Hatteras Island-
414 AM EDT Fri Apr 9 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across the area
this afternoon into this evening as a warm front lifts north through
the area. Some of the storms could become severe with damaging winds
and large hail. An isolated, brief tornado is also possible,
especially across the northern portions of the area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible Saturday and Sunday ahead of
a cold front. Some of these storms could become severe with damaging
winds and large hail the main threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
421 PM EDT Fri Apr 9 2021

NCZ044-080-193-092100-
Beaufort-Northern Craven-Pitt-
421 PM EDT Fri Apr 9 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL CRAVEN...
SOUTHEASTERN PITT AND NORTHWESTERN BEAUFORT COUNTIES...

At 420 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Shelmerdine, or
9 miles east of Winterville, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Washington, River Road, Calico, Shelmerdine, Black Jack, Wilmar,
Bunyan, Old Ford, Goose Creek State Park, Chocowinity, Washington
Park and Grimesland.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 3536 7721 3552 7734 3566 7705 3548 7688
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 240DEG 4KT 3547 7723

27

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
428 PM EDT Fri Apr 9 2021

NCZ045-046-092100-
Washington-Tyrrell-
428 PM EDT Fri Apr 9 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWESTERN TYRRELL COUNTIES...

At 428 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Pleasant Grove,
or 12 miles northeast of Plymouth, moving east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Woodley, Pleasant Grove, Westover, Scuppernong, Mackeys and Roper.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3587 7669 3595 7669 3596 7649 3599 7639
      3594 7631 3588 7630
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 265DEG 16KT 3595 7655

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