Special Marine Warning 59, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
241 PM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue to push through the area this evening
and offshore late tonight. High pressure will build over the
area mid to late week. Another cold front will approach the area
this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Tue...Svr Thunderstorm Watch in effect for most of
Eastern NC through 7 PM this evening. Latest sfc analysis shows
cold front extending from Oregon Inlet down through Washington
and into Kenansville this afternoon. Aloft, a unusually
amplified (for this time of year) mid level trough will continue
to move through the Carolinas. The front will interact with the
sea breeze to create a corridor of favorable low level
convergence beneath impressive upper level divergence across the
area to support the threat of svr tstms. Mesoanalysis shows ML
CAPE values 2-2500 J/kg along and east of Hwy 17, with bulk eff
shear 40-50 kt. This combined with the steep low level lapse
rates is allowing convection to become more organized this
afternoon. Strong to severe thunderstorms with large hail and
damaging wind gusts the main threats through early this
evening, best chances along the east of Hwy 17. Localized very
heavy rainfall will also be possible with PW values around 2"
and an environment favorable for training and backbuilding
cells. 12z PWAT on MHX sounding this morning around 1.75". The
CAMs are picking up on this with local QPF amounts of around 3"
which would lead to flooding of poor drainage areas.

The showers and storms should be mostly offshore by 11 PM
followed by clearing skies and diminishing winds behind the
front. Areas of fog could develop early Wed morning in response
to the wet soils and radiational cooling, though confidence is
low at this time. Lows will be in the low to mid 60s inland to
the mid to upper 60s beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
As of 245 PM Tue...Sfc front will linger south of the area Wed
as another front approaches the area along with stronger
shortwave energy rounding the base of the upper trough. The
combination of a secondary front moving in late in the day, sea
breeze and upper level support will be enough to support
scattered shower and tstm development during the afternoon. Best
tstm chances along and east of Hwy 17 near better instability.
Svr threat looks minimal given the modest instability and drier
air, though still good amt of shear around. Temps a few deg
cooler, with highs generally 80-85 deg.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...Lower chances for showers and
thunderstorms will again be possible Thursday, followed by a
period of drier weather into the first part of the weekend.
Saturday will be quite hot with highs well into the 90s. Our
next shot of rain will come later in the weekend and especially
early next week.

Wednesday night and Thursday...By Thursday chances continue to
decrease, but a few storms are still possible especially along
the sea breeze. Temps this period will be fairly seasonable or
in the middle to upper 80s.

Friday/Saturday...High pressure will build across our area
Friday, and off the coast by Saturday, supporting a dry
forecast. Temps will inch toward 90 Friday, and as the high
slides off the coast Saturday, a strong southwest flow will
support highs well into the 90s most of the area. With the
southwest flow, 90s are even likely across the northern Outer
Banks.

Sunday/Monday...An area of disturbed weather in the Gulf later
this week, will gradually lift northeastward in the steering
flow around a bermuda high off the coast. A general increase in
shower chances later Sunday, but especially next week along with
slightly lower temperatures can be expected.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/...
As of 245 PM Tue...VFR conditions currently across the
terminals. Conditions should remain VFR outside scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms which will be most widespread
in the through early this evening. The storms will produce
strong wind gusts and hail along with torrential rains and
occasional sub VFR conditions. Best tstm chances at OAJ and EWN.
Conditions at the TAF sites will briefly improve late this
evening but radiational cooling could lead to the development of
areas of fog late early Wed morning in places that receive
rain. Did not include in the forecast at this time due to low
confidence. Scattered diurnal showers and storms expected again
Wed afternoon.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...Mainly VFR conditions this period.
Scattered storms possible again Thursday. Patchy fog will also
be possible during the late night/early morning hours during
this period, especially at terminals that see rainfall. Drier
weather Friday and Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/...
As of 245 PM Tue...Svr tstm watch in effect through 7 PM for
coastal waters, sounds and rivers. Front is pushing through the
waters this afternoon...with N/NE winds 10-15 kt north of Oregon
Inlet and SW winds 5-15 kt south, with seas 2-4 ft. The front
will cross the remainder of the waters tonight with winds
becoming N/NE 10-15 kt in the evening then diminishing to NW
5-10 kt late tonight. An area of strong to severe thunderstorms
with strong winds and/or large hail, and frequent lightning will
be moving through the waters ahead of the cold front through
early evening. N/NW winds generally 10 kt or less Wed morning,
becoming variable NE-SW during the afternoon. Seas will be 2-4
ft through Wed but will be locally much higher in vicinity of
thunderstorms.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...Good boating conditions on the waters
through Friday with winds generally less than 10 kts and seas 4
feet or less. Conditions on the waters go down by Saturday as
strong southwest winds develop over the waters.

With a cold front just south or near our southern waters
through the period, winds will be quite variable through
Thursday. Generally speaking northeast to east winds will be
likely north of Cape Hatteras, with winds having a more
southerly component down toward Onslow Bay. Winds will generally
be 5 to 10 kts, but a few gusts to 15 kts are possible each
afternoon into the evening during our peak heating. Light winds
continue Friday, with a more prominent southeast flow over all
waters. Seas through the period run 2 to 4 feet early, closer to
2 feet later in the week.

The period of concern will start Saturday with small craft
conditions likely especially our coast waters, as a pronounced
southwest flow develops. With winds of 20 to 25 kts, seas will
build to 6 feet late. All data supports elevated seas and strong
southwest winds into early next week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...EH/SK
AVIATION...CQD/EH
MARINE...CQD/EH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
200 PM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021

NCZ045>047-080-081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-204-161800-
Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Beaufort-Mainland Hyde-Duplin-
Lenoir-Jones-Pamlico-Northern Craven-Southern Craven-West Carteret-
East Carteret-Inland Onslow-Coastal Onslow-Ocracoke Island-
200 PM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 274 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms capable of producing damaging
winds, large hail, and torrential downpours are expected this
afternoon into early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ203-205-161800-
Northern Outer Banks-Hatteras Island-
200 PM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 274 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Moderate Rip Current Risk.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Numerous thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large
hail, and torrential downpours are expected this afternoon into
early
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ029-044-079-161800-
Martin-Pitt-Greene-
200 PM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms capable of producing damaging
winds, large hail, and torrential downpours are expected this
afternoon into early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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