Areal Flood Advisory 4, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
235 PM EDT Thu Jun 3 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather will continue through Friday as a cold front
approaches and gradually dissipates. High pressure builds
closer to the area this weekend, with drying conditions likely.
High pressure continues offshore next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Thurs...Numerous shra and sct tsra will cont inland
thru early evening with locally very heavy rain expected. The
widespread clouds and precip have cooled temps into the low to
mid 70s much of the deep inland areas, however on eastern edge
of main precip shield there is some decent instab so a strong
to svr storm still poss into the evening. Later tonight most
all guidance shows a band of heavy shra and isold tsra
developing inland grad spreading to the cst ahead of approaching
upr trf and weakening cold front. Will have cat pops with heavy
rain mention with this band overnight. Cont Flash Flood Watch
NW tier where heavy rain has occurred past 24 hrs with more to
come. Will monitor areas further E and S but will hold off for
now. Muggy lows mostly 70 to 75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
As of 230 PM Thu...Numerous shra and a few tsra ahead of
weakening cold front will grad push off the coast early.
Additional shra and tsra expected to redevelop during the day
with weak upr trf to the W and building instab. Will have likely
pops inland to chc cst in the aftn and if get enuf instab will
have threat for some stronger to marginally svr storms. Highs
again mostly lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 545 AM Thursday...

Weekend...The upper level trough remains over the area before
finally pushing offshore late Sunday, fueling chances for
overnight showers/stray tstorms to start the weekend. Kept PoPs
at slight/chance over the coast in the mornings and working
inland as the days progress. Typical for early summer, tstorms
possible as instability increases through the day.

Early Next Week...Upper level low breaks off the trough as it
slides offshore. Ridging builds in from over the Gulf states
north to Michigan with another Low centered over Texas. This
L-H-L sandwich pattern remains for most of the week and keeps
upper flow meridional. Elongated High at the SFC provides Serly
flow through the period keeping things warm a moist with
dewpoints in the 70s and highs in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 235 PM Thu...A mix of VFR and IFR conditions are present
across the airspace this afternoon as showers and thunderstorms
continue to impact Eastern NC. Widespread showers and storms
expected across the coastal plain through this evening, with
activity shifting eastward overnight and early Friday morning.
Outside of convection, conditions likely bouncing between MVFR
and VFR. Periods of IFR/LIFR expected in heavy downpours. Heavy
rain expected to push east of the sites Friday morning, with
cigs lifting to VFR by late Friday afternoon (likely after 18z).

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 4 AM Thursday...Rain lingers from overnight Thursday
making sub-vfr cats possible with fog/stratus. CIGs improve
through the day but chances of scattered showers and storms
remain. Mostly cloudy conditions Friday gradually improve
through the weekend as the mid/lower levels slightly dry from
their peak Friday with rain chances limited to the coast in the
morning building inland with afternoon heating. Early morning
fog possible through the weekend with moist low levels.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Fri/...
As of 235 PM Thu...Weakening cold front will approach from the W
with high pres offshore. SSW winds expected to grad increase
tonight into Fri morn with many mdls showing at least gusts aoa
25 kts for a period central and srn tier. Have put up a SCA
starting overnight and cont into Fri or Fri evening for Pamlico
Sound and cstl wtrs S of Oregon Inlet. With the gusty winds have
some 6 ft seas developing outer central and srn wtrs overnight
and cont thru Fri.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 4 AM Thursday...Seas subside through the weekend as S/SW
winds slightly calm to around 10-15kts, northern waters around 3
feet and waters south of Hatteras 3 to 4 feet Saturday before
laying down to 3 feet across the area Sunday with Serly winds
around 10kts.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for NCZ029-044-079.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 5 PM EDT Friday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 11 PM EDT Friday
     for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 PM EDT Friday
     for AMZ156-158.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...CQD/CEB
MARINE...RF/CEB

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
952 AM EDT Thu Jun 3 2021

NCZ092-198-031445-
Jones-Inland Onslow-
952 AM EDT Thu Jun 3 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN JONES AND
NORTHEASTERN ONSLOW COUNTIES...

At 952 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Jacksonville,
moving northeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Jacksonville, New River Station, Half Moon, Pumpkin Center, Camp
Lejeune Center, Piney Green, Maysville, Midway Park, Kellum,
Belgrade, Deppe and Loco VFD.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3467 7739 3476 7753 3504 7732 3490 7711
TIME...MOT...LOC 1352Z 216DEG 18KT 3477 7742

27

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