Alert archive / Oregon / Winter Weather Advisories in 2021

Winter Weather Advisory 13, NWS Medford, OR

January 31, 2021Siskiyou County, California; Jackson County, Josephine County, Klamath County, Oregon

NWS Medford, OR issued this winter weather advisory at Jan 31, 2021, 2:46 PM PST for Siskiyou County, California; Jackson County, Josephine County, Klamath County, Oregon. It took effect at Feb 1, 2021, 10:00 AM PST. It was in force for 12 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jan 31, 2021, 2:46 PM PST (22:46 UTC)
In effect from
Feb 1, 2021, 10:00 AM PST
Expired
Feb 1, 2021, 10:01 PM PST
In force
12 hr
Issued by
NWS Medford, OR

Counties Siskiyou County, CA, Jackson County, OR, Josephine County, OR, Klamath County, OR

The radar

The Medford radar (KMAX), 22 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Medford/Jackson, OR (KMFR), launched 12:00Z, 10.8 hours before the alert went out and 19 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Medford/Jackson, OR at 12:00Z on 2021-01-31Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Medford/Jackson, OR at 12:00Z on 2021-01-31The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 0 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1633 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
0 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
0 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
0 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

502 
WWUS46 KMFR 312246
WSWMFR

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
246 PM PST Sun Jan 31 2021

...Moderate to Heavy Wet Snow Expected Late Monday Morning through 
Tuesday Morning...

.Snow levels have risen to about 4,000 to 5,000 foot elevations
this afternoon. Precipitation this afternoon is lifting westward 
more toward the coast, so the current round of snowfall in the
mountains will taper off.

Late Monday morning into the afternoon a strong and wet frontal
system along and near the coast will move inland with high
precipitation rates and snow levels falling into the 3,000 to
4,000 foot range. A period of heavy, wet snowfall is expected
across the area, likely resulting in impacts on area roadways,
especially during the Monday afternoon and evening commute. 

CAZ082-083-011500-
/O.CAN.KMFR.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-210201T1200Z/
/O.CAN.KMFR.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-210201T1200Z/
/O.UPG.KMFR.WS.A.0003.210201T1200Z-210202T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.WW.Y.0013.210201T1800Z-210202T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.WS.W.0004.210201T1800Z-210202T1800Z/
South Central Siskiyou County-
North Central and Southeast Siskiyou County-
Including the cities of Mount Shasta and Tennant
246 PM PST Sun Jan 31 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM PST
TUESDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM
PST TUESDAY ABOVE 3000 FEET...

* WHAT...For the Winter Storm Warning above 3500 feet, heavy snow
  expected. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 20 inches expected.
  Wind gusts 40 to 60 mph expected above 6500 foot elevations.
  mph. For the Winter Weather Advisory above 3000 feet, heavy, wet
  snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 9 inches. 

* WHERE...The Winter Storm Warning, areas in and above Mount
  Shasta City to include Highway 89 between Mount Shasta City and
  McCloud as well as the Mount Shasta Ski Park Road. Black Butte
  Summit on Interstate 5 is also in the warning area. For the
  Winter Weather Advisory, Interstate 5 near Mount Shasta City to
  between Mount Shasta City and Dunsmuir.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Monday to 10 AM PST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible during
  the height of the storm late Monday afternoon in Monday evening.
  The hazardous conditions are expected to impact the Monday
  evening commute. Heavy wet snow could damage trees and
  powerlines. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow levels generally above 4,000 feet
  Monday are expected to rapidly lower during heavy precipitation
  Monday afternoon into the evening. The heaviest precipitation is
  currently expected to occur between between 1 PM and 7PM PST.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Travel is strongly discouraged because of dangerous conditions.

* If you must travel, keep tire chains, a flashlight, blankets, 
  food, water, medications, and a fully charged phone with you.

* The safest place during a winter storm is indoors.

* A Winter Storm Warning means that severe winter weather is
  likely and poses a threat to life and property. Take protective
  action now.

&&

$$

CAZ080-011500-
/O.UPG.KMFR.WS.A.0003.210201T1200Z-210202T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.WS.W.0004.210201T1800Z-210202T1800Z/
/O.EXT.KMFR.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-210201T0000Z/
Western Siskiyou County-
246 PM PST Sun Jan 31 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON ABOVE 4500 FEET...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM PST
TUESDAY ABOVE 4000 FEET...

* WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory above 4500 feet, wet
  snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to 2 inches expected
  with winds gusting as high as 45 mph. For the Winter Storm
  Warning above 4000 feet, heavy snow expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 8 to 18 inches with winds gusting as high as 
  50 mph. 

* WHERE...Western Siskiyou County.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 4 PM PST this
  afternoon. For the Winter Storm Warning, from 10 AM Monday to 
  10 AM PST Tuesday. 

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible during
  the warning period. The hazardous conditions could impact the
  Monday evening commute. Heavy, wet snow could damage tree
  branches and powerlines.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Travel is strongly discouraged because of dangerous conditions.

* If you must travel, keep tire chains, a flashlight, blankets, 
  food, water, medications, and a fully charged phone with you.

* The safest place during a winter storm is indoors.

* A Winter Storm Warning means that severe winter weather is
  likely and poses a threat to life and property. Take protective
  action now.

&&

$$

ORZ028-011500-
/O.NEW.KMFR.WW.Y.0013.210201T2100Z-210202T0600Z/
/O.EXT.KMFR.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-210201T0000Z/
Siskiyou Mountains and Southern Oregon Cascades-
246 PM PST Sun Jan 31 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON ABOVE 4500 FEET...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM PST
MONDAY ABOVE 4500 FEET...

* WHAT...For the first Winter Weather Advisory above 4500 feet,
  wet snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to 2 inch es and
  winds gusting as high as 40 mph. For the second Winter Weather
  Advisory above 4500 feet, snow expected. Additional snow 
  accumulations of 6 to 14 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 
  mph.

* WHERE...The Siskiyou Mountains, including Mount Ashland Ski Area
  and Ski Road.

* WHEN...For the first Winter Weather Advisory, until 4 PM PST 
  this afternoon. For the second Winter Weather Advisory, from 1 
  PM to 10 PM PST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Gusty winds could 
  bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...In addition to the windy conditions and
  snowfall expected above 4500 feet, there is likely to be a
  period of 3 to 6 hours later Monday afternoon into the evening
  with half an inch to inch per hour snow rates with snow levels
  lowering into the 3500 to 4000 foot range on Interstate 5 at
  Siskiyou Summit.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Slow down and allow extra time to reach your destination.

* Carry tire chains and be prepared for snow covered roads and 
  limited visibilities.

* See https://www.tripcheck.com or http://quickmap.dot.ca.gov for
  latest road conditions.

* A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means that periods of snow 
  will cause travel difficulties.

&&

$$

ORZ024-010000-
/O.EXT.KMFR.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-210201T0000Z/
Eastern Curry County and Josephine County-
246 PM PST Sun Jan 31 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON ABOVE 4500 FEET...

* WHAT...Wet snow above 4500 feet. Additional snow accumulations
  of up to two inches . Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...The Oregon Caves area of the Siskiyous in southeastern 
  Josephine County.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM PST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow levels will rise this evening as
  precipitation focuses west of the area.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Slow down and allow extra time to reach your destination.

* Carry tire chains and be prepared for snow covered roads and 
  limited visibilities.

* See https://www.tripcheck.com or http://quickmap.dot.ca.gov for
  latest road conditions.

* A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means that periods of snow 
  will cause travel difficulties.

&&

$$
BTL
Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/Medford
5 follow-up statements
438 
WWUS46 KMFR 010000
WSWMFR

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
400 PM PST Sun Jan 31 2021

...Moderate to Heavy Wet Snow Expected Late Monday Morning
through Tuesday Morning...

.Snow levels have risen to about 4,000 to 5,000 foot elevations
this afternoon. Precipitation this afternoon is lifting westward
more toward the coast, so the current round of snowfall in the
mountains will taper off.

Late Monday morning into the afternoon a strong and wet frontal
system along and near the coast will move inland with high
precipitation rates and snow levels falling into the 3,000 to
4,000 foot range. A period of heavy, wet snowfall is expected
across the area, likely resulting in impacts on area roadways,
especially during the Monday afternoon and evening commute.

CAZ080-011200-
/O.EXP.KMFR.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-210201T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.WS.W.0004.210201T1800Z-210202T1800Z/
Western Siskiyou County-
400 PM PST Sun Jan 31 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO
10 AM PST TUESDAY ABOVE 4000 FEET...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
ABOVE 4500 FEET...

* WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory above 4500 feet, wet
  snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to 2 inches expected
  with winds gusting as high as 45 mph. For the Winter Storm
  Warning above 4000 feet, heavy snow expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 8 to 18 inches with winds gusting as high as 
  50 mph. 

* WHERE...Western Siskiyou County.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Monday to 10 AM PST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening 
  commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Travel is strongly discouraged because of dangerous conditions.

* If you must travel, keep tire chains, a flashlight, blankets, 
  food, water, medications, and a fully charged phone with you.

* The safest place during a winter storm is indoors.

* A Winter Storm Warning means that severe winter weather is
  likely and poses a threat to life and property. Take protective
  action now.

&&

$$

ORZ028-011200-
/O.EXP.KMFR.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-210201T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.WW.Y.0013.210201T2100Z-210202T0600Z/
Siskiyou Mountains and Southern Oregon Cascades-
400 PM PST Sun Jan 31 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM
PST MONDAY ABOVE 4500 FEET...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
ABOVE 4500 FEET...

* WHAT...Wet snow above 4500 feet expected. Snow accumulations of
  6 to 14 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Siskiyou Mountains and Southern Oregon Cascades.

* WHEN...From 1 PM to 10 PM PST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Gusty winds could 
  bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...In addition to the windy conditions and
  snowfall expected above 4500 feet, there is likely to be a
  period of 3 to 6 hours later Monday afternoon into the evening
  with half an inch to inch per hour snow rates with snow levels
  lowering into the 3500 to 4000 foot range on Interstate 5 at
  Siskiyou Summit.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Slow down and allow extra time to reach your destination.

* Carry tire chains and be prepared for snow covered roads and 
  limited visibilities.

* See https://www.tripcheck.com for latest road conditions.

* A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means that periods of snow 
  will cause travel difficulties.

&&

$$

ORZ024-010100-
/O.EXP.KMFR.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-210201T0000Z/
Eastern Curry County and Josephine County-
400 PM PST Sun Jan 31 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
ABOVE 4500 FEET...

Snow levels have risen to about 4,000 to 5,000 foot elevations 
this afternoon. Precipitation this afternoon is lifting westward 
more toward the coast, so the current round of snowfall in the 
mountains is tapering off.

$$

CAZ082-083-011200-
/O.CON.KMFR.WS.W.0004.210201T1800Z-210202T1800Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.WW.Y.0013.210201T1800Z-210202T1800Z/
South Central Siskiyou County-
North Central and Southeast Siskiyou County-
Including the cities of Mount Shasta and Tennant
400 PM PST Sun Jan 31 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO
10 AM PST TUESDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO
10 AM PST TUESDAY ABOVE 3000 FEET...

* WHAT...For the Winter Storm Warning above 3500 feet, heavy snow
  expected. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 20 inches expected.
  Wind gusts 40 to 60 mph expected above 6500 foot elevations.
  mph. For the Winter Weather Advisory above 3000 feet, heavy, wet
  snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 9 inches. 

* WHERE...The Winter Storm Warning, areas in and above Mount
  Shasta City to include Highway 89 between Mount Shasta City and
  McCloud as well as the Mount Shasta Ski Park Road. Black Butte
  Summit on Interstate 5 is also in the warning area. For the
  Winter Weather Advisory, Interstate 5 near Mount Shasta City to
  between Mount Shasta City and Dunsmuir.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Monday to 10 AM PST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible during
  the height of the storm late Monday afternoon in Monday evening.
  The hazardous conditions are expected to impact the Monday
  evening commute. Heavy wet snow could damage trees and
  powerlines. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow levels generally above 4,000 feet
  Monday are expected to rapidly lower during heavy precipitation
  Monday afternoon into the evening. The heaviest precipitation is
  currently expected to occur between between 1 PM and 7PM PST.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Travel is strongly discouraged because of dangerous conditions.

* If you must travel, keep tire chains, a flashlight, blankets, 
  food, water, medications, and a fully charged phone with you.

* The safest place during a winter storm is indoors.

* A Winter Storm Warning means that severe winter weather is |
  likely and poses a threat to life and property. Take protective
  action now.

&&

$$

Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/Medford
641 
WWUS46 KMFR 011016
WSWMFR

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
216 AM PST Mon Feb 1 2021

...Moderate to Heavy Wet Snow Expected today into Tuesday 
Morning...

.Late this morning through this evening a strong and wet frontal 
system along and near the coast will move inland with high 
precipitation rates and snow levels falling into the 3,000 to 
4,000 foot range. A period of heavy, wet snowfall is expected 
across the area, likely resulting in impacts on area roadways, 
especially during the afternoon and evening commute.

CAZ082-083-011830-
/O.CON.KMFR.WS.W.0004.210201T1800Z-210202T1800Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.WW.Y.0013.210201T1800Z-210202T1800Z/
South Central Siskiyou County-
North Central and Southeast Siskiyou County-
Including the cities of Mount Shasta and Tennant
216 AM PST Mon Feb 1 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
TO 10 AM PST TUESDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS
MORNING TO 10 AM PST TUESDAY ABOVE 3000 FEET...

* WHAT...For the Winter Storm Warning above 3500 feet, heavy snow
  expected. Additional snow accumulations of 5 to 12 inches are
  expected above 3500 feet with higher amounts of 15 to 20 inches
  above 4500 feet elevation. Wind gusts 40 mph expected from Black
  Butte summit northward. Win gusts of 40 to 60 mph for higher
  terrain above 6000 feet elevation. For the Winter Weather
  Advisory above 3000 feet, heavy, wet snow expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 3 to 6 inches.

* WHERE...The Winter Storm Warning, areas in and above Mount 
  Shasta City to include Highway 89 between Mount Shasta City 
  and McCloud as well as the Mount Shasta Ski Park Road. Black 
  Butte Summit on Interstate 5 is also in the warning area. For 
  the Winter Weather Advisory, Interstate 5 near Mount Shasta 
  City to between Mount Shasta City and Dunsmuir.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Monday to 10 AM PST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible during
  the height of the storm late this afternoon in Monday evening. 
  The hazardous conditions are expected to impact the Monday 
  evening commute. Heavy wet snow could damage trees and 
  powerlines.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow levels generally between 3500 and 4000
  feet are expected to lower during heavy precipitation to 3000 to
  3500 feet this afternoon and into the evening. The heaviest
  precipitation is currently expected to occur between between 2
  PM and 9 PM PST.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Travel is strongly discouraged because of dangerous conditions.

* If you must travel, keep tire chains, a flashlight, blankets, 
  food, water, medications, and a fully charged phone with you.

* The safest place during a winter storm is indoors.

* A Winter Storm Warning means that severe winter weather is | 
  likely and poses a threat to life and property. Take 
  protective action now.

&&

$$

CAZ080-011830-
/O.CON.KMFR.WS.W.0004.210201T1800Z-210202T1800Z/
Western Siskiyou County-
216 AM PST Mon Feb 1 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
TO 10 AM PST TUESDAY ABOVE 4000 FEET...

* WHAT...For the Winter Storm Warning above 4000 feet, heavy snow
  expected. Additional snow accumulations of 5 to 12 inches with 
  winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Western Siskiyou County for locations above 4000 feet.
  This includes higher portions of Sawyers Bar Road as well as
  Highway 3 near Scott Mountain. 

* WHEN...From 10 AM Monday to 10 AM PST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening 
  commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heaviest snow is expected this afternoon
  and evening. 

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Travel is strongly discouraged because of dangerous conditions.

* If you must travel, keep tire chains, a flashlight, blankets, 
  food, water, medications, and a fully charged phone with you.

* The safest place during a winter storm is indoors.

* A Winter Storm Warning means that severe winter weather is 
  likely and poses a threat to life and property. Take 
  protective action now.

&&

$$

ORZ028-011830-
/O.CON.KMFR.WW.Y.0013.210201T2100Z-210202T0600Z/
Siskiyou Mountains and Southern Oregon Cascades-
216 AM PST Mon Feb 1 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING ABOVE 4500 FEET...

* WHAT...Wet snow above 4500 feet expected. Additional snow 
  accumulations of 5 to 10 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 
  mph.

* WHERE...Siskiyou Mountains. This includes higher portions of
  Mount Ashland Ski Road. 

* WHEN...From 1 PM to 10 PM PST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Gusty winds could 
  bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...In addition to the windy conditions and
  snowfall expected above 4500 feet, there is likely to be a
  period of 3 to 6 hours this afternoon into the evening with half
  an inch to inch per hour snow rates as snow levels lower to 
  between 3500 to 4000 feet. A brief period of moderate snow is 
  possible at Siskiyou Summit on Interstate 5 during this time.
 
* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Slow down and allow extra time to reach your destination.

* Carry tire chains and be prepared for snow covered roads and 
  limited visibilities.

* See https://www.tripcheck.com for latest road conditions.

* A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means that periods of snow 
  will cause travel difficulties.

&&

$$

Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/Medford
021 
WWUS46 KMFR 011826
WSWMFR

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
1026 AM PST Mon Feb 1 2021

...Moderate to Heavy Wet Snow Expected into Tuesday Morning...

.Late this morning through this evening a strong and wet frontal
system along and near the coast will move inland with high
precipitation rates and snow levels falling into the 3,000 to
4,000 foot range. A period of heavy, wet snowfall is expected
across the area, likely resulting in impacts on area roadways,
especially during the afternoon and evening commute.

CAZ082-083-020600-
/O.CON.KMFR.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-210202T1800Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-210202T1800Z/
South Central Siskiyou County-
North Central and Southeast Siskiyou County-
Including the cities of Mount Shasta and Tennant
1026 AM PST Mon Feb 1 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST TUESDAY
ABOVE 3500 FEET...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST
TUESDAY ABOVE 3000 FEET...

* WHAT...For the Winter Storm Warning above 3500 feet, heavy 
  snow expected. Additional snow accumulations of 5 to 12 inches 
  are expected above 3500 feet with higher amounts of 15 to 20 
  inches above 4500 feet elevation. Wind gusts 40 mph expected 
  from Black Butte summit northward. Win gusts of 40 to 60 mph 
  for higher terrain above 6000 feet elevation. For the Winter 
  Weather Advisory above 3000 feet, heavy, wet snow expected. 
  Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches.

* WHERE...The Winter Storm Warning, areas in and above Mount 
  Shasta City to include Highway 89 between Mount Shasta City 
  and McCloud as well as the Mount Shasta Ski Park Road. Black 
  Butte Summit on Interstate 5 is also in the warning area. For 
  the Winter Weather Advisory, Interstate 5 near Mount Shasta 
  City to between Mount Shasta City and Dunsmuir.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Monday to 10 AM PST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible during 
  the height of the storm late this afternoon in Monday evening. 
  The hazardous conditions are expected to impact the Monday 
  evening commute. Heavy wet snow could damage trees and 
  powerlines.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow levels generally between 3500 and 4000
  feet are expected to lower during heavy precipitation to 3000 to
  3500 feet this afternoon and into the evening. The heaviest
  precipitation is expected to occur between between 2 PM and 9 
  PM PST.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Travel is strongly discouraged because of dangerous conditions.

* If you must travel, keep tire chains, a flashlight, blankets, 
  food, water, medications, and a fully charged phone with you.

* The safest place during a winter storm is indoors.

* A Winter Storm Warning means that severe winter weather is | 
  likely and poses a threat to life and property. Take 
  protective action now.

&&

$$

CAZ080-020600-
/O.CON.KMFR.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-210202T1800Z/
Western Siskiyou County-
1026 AM PST Mon Feb 1 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST TUESDAY
ABOVE 4000 FEET...

* WHAT...For the Winter Storm Warning above 4000 feet, heavy 
  snow expected. Additional snow accumulations of 5 to 12 inches 
  with winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Western Siskiyou County for locations above 4000 feet. 
  This includes higher portions of Sawyers Bar Road as well as 
  Highway 3 near Scott Mountain.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Monday to 10 AM PST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening 
  commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heaviest snow is expected this afternoon 
  and evening.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Travel is strongly discouraged because of dangerous conditions.

* If you must travel, keep tire chains, a flashlight, blankets, 
  food, water, medications, and a fully charged phone with you.

* The safest place during a winter storm is indoors.

* A Winter Storm Warning means that severe winter weather is 
  likely and poses a threat to life and property. Take 
  protective action now.

&&

$$

ORZ028-020600-
/O.CON.KMFR.WW.Y.0013.210201T2100Z-210202T0600Z/
Siskiyou Mountains and Southern Oregon Cascades-
1026 AM PST Mon Feb 1 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING ABOVE 4500 FEET...

* WHAT...Wet snow above 4500 feet expected. Additional snow 
  accumulations of 5 to 10 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 
  mph.

* WHERE...Siskiyou Mountains. This includes higher portions of 
  Mount Ashland Ski Road.

* WHEN...From 1 PM to 10 PM PST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Gusty winds could 
  bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...In addition to the windy conditions and 
  snowfall expected above 4500 feet, there is likely to be a 
  period of 3 to 6 hours this afternoon into the evening with 
  half an inch to inch per hour snow rates as snow levels lower 
  to between 3500 to 4000 feet. A brief period of moderate snow 
  is possible at Siskiyou Summit on Interstate 5 during this 
  time.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Slow down and allow extra time to reach your destination.

* Carry tire chains and be prepared for snow covered roads and 
  limited visibilities.

* See https://www.tripcheck.com for latest road conditions.

* A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means that periods of snow 
  will cause travel difficulties.

&&

$$

Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/Medford
984 
WWUS46 KMFR 012309
WSWMFR

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
309 PM PST Mon Feb 1 2021

...Moderate to Heavy Wet Snow Expected into Tuesday Morning then
Low Level Snow Late Tuesday Night through Wednesday...

.A strong, wet frontal system is moving across the area with high
precipitation rates and snow levels falling into the 3000 to 
4000 foot range. A period of heavy, wet snowfall is expected 
across the area through this evening, likely resulting in impacts 
on area roadways. Lighter intensity snow will linger late tonight 
into Tuesday morning. The next front will be colder and affect the
area late Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon with snow 
levels falling to 2000 feet.


CAZ080-020715-
/O.NEW.KMFR.WW.Y.0014.210203T0600Z-210204T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-210202T1800Z/
Western Siskiyou County-
Including the cities of Etna, Fort Jones, Greenview, 
and Somes Bar
309 PM PST Mon Feb 1 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST TUESDAY
ABOVE 4000 FEET...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM TUESDAY TO 4 PM
PST WEDNESDAY ABOVE 2000 FEET...

* WHAT...For the Winter Storm Warning above 4000 feet, heavy snow
  with additional accumulations of 5 to 10 inches. Winds gusting
  as high as 50 mph. For the Winter Weather Advisory above 2000
  feet, snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, except 5 to 10 inches
  on the mountains. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Western Siskiyou County. For locations above 4000 feet,
  this includes higher portions of Sawyers Bar Road as well as
  Highway 3 near Scott Mountain. For locations above 2000 feet
  late Tuesday night into Wednesday, this includes Etna, Fort
  Jones, and Greenview.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, until 10 AM PST Tuesday. 
  For the Winter Weather Advisory, from 10 PM Tuesday to 4 PM 
  PST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the commute this evening and
  also Wednesday morning. Gusty winds could bring down tree 
  branches.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Travel is strongly discouraged because of dangerous conditions.

* If you must travel, keep tire chains, a flashlight, blankets, 
  food, water, medications, and a fully charged phone with you.

* The safest place during a winter storm is indoors.

* A Winter Storm Warning means that severe winter weather is
  occurring, and poses a threat to life and property. Take 
  protective action now.

&&

$$

CAZ082-083-020715-
/O.CON.KMFR.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-210202T1800Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-210202T1800Z/
South Central Siskiyou County-
North Central and Southeast Siskiyou County-
Including the cities of Mount Shasta and Tennant
309 PM PST Mon Feb 1 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST TUESDAY
ABOVE 3500 FEET...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST
TUESDAY ABOVE 3000 FEET...

* WHAT...For the Winter Storm Warning above 3500 feet, heavy snow
  expected. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 10 inches are
  expected above 3500 feet with higher amounts of 10 to 20 inches
  above 4500 feet elevation. Wind gusts 40 mph expected from Black
  Butte summit northward. Wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph for higher
  terrain above 6000 feet elevation. For the Winter Weather
  Advisory above 3000 feet, total snow accumulations of 1 to 5 
  inches.

* WHERE...The Winter Storm Warning, areas in and above Mount 
  Shasta City to include Highway 89 between Mount Shasta City 
  and McCloud as well as the Mount Shasta Ski Park Road. Black 
  Butte Summit on Interstate 5 is also in the warning area. For 
  the Winter Weather Advisory, Interstate 5 near Mount Shasta 
  City to between Mount Shasta City and Dunsmuir.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM PST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible during 
  the height of the storm late this afternoon in Monday evening. 
  The hazardous conditions are expected to impact the Monday 
  evening commute. Heavy wet snow could damage trees and 
  powerlines.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow levels generally between 3500 and 
  4000 feet are expected to lower during heavy precipitation to 
  3000 to 3500 feet this afternoon and into the evening. The 
  heaviest precipitation is expected to occur between between 2 
  PM and 9 PM PST.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Travel is strongly discouraged because of dangerous conditions.

* If you must travel, keep tire chains, a flashlight, blankets, 
  food, water, medications, and a fully charged phone with you.

* The safest place during a winter storm is indoors.

* A Winter Storm Warning means that severe winter weather is | 
  likely and poses a threat to life and property. Take 
  protective action now.

&&

$$

ORZ028-020715-
/O.NEW.KMFR.WW.Y.0014.210203T0600Z-210204T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-210202T0600Z/
Siskiyou Mountains and Southern Oregon Cascades-
Including the cities of Howard Prairie and Siskiyou Summit
309 PM PST Mon Feb 1 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING ABOVE 4500 FEET...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM TUESDAY TO 4 PM
PST WEDNESDAY ABOVE 2000 FEET...

* WHAT...For the first Winter Weather Advisory above 4500 feet,
  snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 6 inches. Winds
  gusting as high as 60 mph. For the second Winter Weather
  Advisory above 2000 feet, snow expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 3 to 8 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 
  mph.

* WHERE...Siskiyou Mountains and Southern Oregon Cascades. This
  includes higher portions of Mount Ashland Ski Road this evening.
  Then, also portions of Interstate 5 and Highway 66 late Tuesday
  night through Wednesday...including Siskiyou Summit.

* WHEN...For the first Winter Weather Advisory, until 10 PM PST 
  this evening. For the second Winter Weather Advisory, from 10 
  PM Tuesday to 4 PM PST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Gusty winds could
  bring down tree branches.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Slow down and allow extra time to reach your destination.

* Carry tire chains and be prepared for snow covered roads and 
  limited visibilities.

* See https://www.tripcheck.com for latest road conditions.

* A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means that periods of snow 
  will cause travel difficulties.

&&

$$

ORZ023>027-030-020715-
/O.NEW.KMFR.WW.Y.0014.210203T0600Z-210204T0000Z/
Central Douglas County-Eastern Curry County and Josephine County-
Eastern Douglas County Foothills-Jackson County-
South Central Oregon Cascades-
Northern and Eastern Klamath County and Western Lake County-
Including the cities of Crater Lake, Crescent Lake, Diamond Lake,
Union Creek, Chemult, Crescent, and Gilchrist
309 PM PST Mon Feb 1 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM TUESDAY TO 4 PM
PST WEDNESDAY ABOVE 2000 FEET...

* WHAT...Snow expected above 2000 feet. Total snow accumulations
  of 1 to 4 inches at elevations between 2000 and 3000 feet with 4
  to 10 inches at elevations above 3000 feet. Winds gusting as 
  high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of south central and southwest Oregon. This
  includes Jacksonville Hill, Butte Falls, Prospect, Crater Lake,
  Diamond Lake, and Crescent. The passes on Interstate 5 between
  between Sunny Valley and Canyonville may also be impacted.

* WHEN...From 10 PM Tuesday to 4 PM PST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Gusty
  winds could bring down tree branches.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Slow down and allow extra time to reach your destination.

* Carry tire chains and be prepared for snow covered roads and 
  limited visibilities.

* See https://www.tripcheck.com for latest road conditions.

* A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means that periods of snow 
  will cause travel difficulties.

&&

$$

Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/Medford
382 
WWUS46 KMFR 020601
WSWMFR

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
1001 PM PST Mon Feb 1 2021

...Moderate to Heavy Wet Snow Expected into Tuesday Morning then
Low Level Snow Late Tuesday Night through Wednesday...

.A strong, wet frontal system is moving across the area with high
precipitation rates and snow levels falling into the 3000 to
4000 foot range. A period of heavy, wet snowfall is expected
across the area through this evening, likely resulting in impacts
on area roadways. Lighter intensity snow will linger late tonight
into Tuesday morning. The next front will be colder and affect
the area late Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon with snow
levels falling to 2000 feet.

CAZ082-083-021415-
/O.CAN.KMFR.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-210202T1800Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-210202T1800Z/
South Central Siskiyou County-
North Central and Southeast Siskiyou County-
1001 PM PST Mon Feb 1 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST TUESDAY
ABOVE 3500 FEET...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...For the Winter Storm Warning above 3500 feet, heavy snow
  expected. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 10 inches are
  expected above 3500 feet with higher amounts of 10 to 20 inches
  above 4500 feet elevation. Wind gusts 40 mph expected from Black
  Butte summit northward. Wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph for higher
  terrain above 6000 feet elevation. 

* WHERE...Areas in and above Mount Shasta City to include Highway
  89 between Mount Shasta City and McCloud as well as the Mount
  Shasta Ski Park Road. Black Butte Summit on Interstate 5 is also
  in the warning area. 

* WHEN...Until 10 AM PST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible during 
  the height of the storm late this afternoon in Monday evening. 
  The hazardous conditions are expected to impact the Monday 
  evening commute. Heavy wet snow could damage trees and 
  powerlines.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow levels generally between 3500 and 4000
  feet. Snow levels may briefly dip to the Mount Shasta City
  elevation and below but any snow at these elevations should be
  brief and not result in much impact.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Travel is strongly discouraged because of dangerous conditions.

* If you must travel, keep tire chains, a flashlight, blankets, 
  food, water, medications, and a fully charged phone with you.

* The safest place during a winter storm is indoors.

* A Winter Storm Warning means that severe winter weather is 
  occurring and poses a threat to life and property. Take 
  protective action now.

&&

$$

ORZ028-021415-
/O.EXP.KMFR.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-210202T0600Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.WW.Y.0014.210203T0600Z-210204T0000Z/
Siskiyou Mountains and Southern Oregon Cascades-
Including the cities of Howard Prairie and Siskiyou Summit
1001 PM PST Mon Feb 1 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM TUESDAY
TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY ABOVE 2000 FEET...

* WHAT...Snow expected above 2000 feet. Total snow accumulations
  of 3 to 10 inches. Wind gusts to 45 mph.

* WHERE...Siskiyou Mountains and Southern Oregon Cascades to
  include portions of Interstate 5 near Siskiyou Summit and
  Highway 66 late Tuesday night through Wednesday.

* WHEN...From 10 PM Tuesday to 4 PM PST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Gusty winds could 
  bring down tree branches.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Slow down and allow extra time to reach your destination.

* Carry tire chains and be prepared for snow covered roads and 
  limited visibilities.

* See https://www.tripcheck.com for latest road conditions.

* A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means that periods of snow 
  will cause travel difficulties.

&&

$$

CAZ080-021415-
/O.CON.KMFR.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-210202T1800Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.WW.Y.0014.210203T0600Z-210204T0000Z/
Western Siskiyou County-
Including the cities of Etna, Fort Jones, Greenview, 
and Somes Bar
1001 PM PST Mon Feb 1 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST TUESDAY
ABOVE 4000 FEET...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM TUESDAY
TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY ABOVE 2000 FEET...

* WHAT...For the Winter Storm Warning above 4000 feet, heavy 
  snow with additional accumulations of 5 to 10 inches. Winds 
  gusting as high as 50 mph. For the Winter Weather Advisory 
  above 2000 feet, snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, except 5 
  to 10 inches on the mountains. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Western Siskiyou County. For locations above 4000 
  feet, this includes higher portions of Sawyers Bar Road as 
  well as Highway 3 near Scott Mountain. For locations above 
  2000 feet late Tuesday night into Wednesday, this includes 
  Etna, Fort Jones, and Greenview.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, until 10 AM PST Tuesday. 
  For the Winter Weather Advisory, from 10 PM Tuesday to 4 PM 
  PST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the commute this evening and 
  also Wednesday morning. Gusty winds could bring down tree 
  branches.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Travel is strongly discouraged because of dangerous conditions.

* If you must travel, keep tire chains, a flashlight, blankets, 
  food, water, medications, and a fully charged phone with you.

* The safest place during a winter storm is indoors.

* A Winter Storm Warning means that severe winter weather is 
  occurring, and poses a threat to life and property. Take 
  protective action now.

&&

$$

ORZ023>027-030-021415-
/O.CON.KMFR.WW.Y.0014.210203T0600Z-210204T0000Z/
Central Douglas County-Eastern Curry County and Josephine County-
Eastern Douglas County Foothills-Jackson County-
South Central Oregon Cascades-
Northern and Eastern Klamath County and Western Lake County-
Including the cities of Crater Lake, Crescent Lake, Diamond Lake,
Union Creek, Chemult, Crescent, and Gilchrist
1001 PM PST Mon Feb 1 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM TUESDAY
TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY ABOVE 2000 FEET...

* WHAT...Snow expected above 2000 feet. Total snow accumulations 
  of 1 to 4 inches at elevations between 2000 and 3000 feet with 
  4 to 10 inches at elevations above 3000 feet. Winds gusting as 
  high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of south central and southwest Oregon. This
  includes Jacksonville Hill, Butte Falls, Prospect, Crater Lake,
  Diamond Lake, and Crescent. The passes on Interstate 5 between
  between Sunny Valley and Canyonville including Canyon Mountain
  and Sexton Passes may also be impacted.

* WHEN...From 10 PM Tuesday to 4 PM PST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Gusty 
  winds could bring down tree branches.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Slow down and allow extra time to reach your destination.

* Carry tire chains and be prepared for snow covered roads and 
  limited visibilities.

* See https://www.tripcheck.com for latest road conditions.

* A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means that periods of snow 
  will cause travel difficulties.

&&

$$

Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/Medford

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter weather advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter weather advisory went out at Jan 31, 11:49 AM PST, 2 hours 57 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 31, 11:49 AM PST, 2 hours 57 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1149 AM PST Sun Jan 31 2021

.UPDATE...Updated the aviation and marine sections.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 31/18Z TAFs...A slow moving front will continue
areas of moderate to heavy precipitation with a mix of MVFR and VFR
west of the Cascades through Monday. Meantime, gusty southerly winds
and mountain obscuration will be widespread across the area, and
mainly VFR is expected east of the Cascades. -DW

&&

.MARINE...Updated 930 AM PST Sunday 31 Jan 2021...The forecast was
updated this morning to extend the Gale Warning and Hazardous Seas
Warning through Monday morning, Also, the subsequent Small Craft
Advisory was extended into early Tuesday morning.

The slow moving cold front will continue a mix of sub-advisory,
advisory strength, and gale force winds across the waters through
Monday morning, with gales most common and very steep, hazardous
seas across all of the waters. Seas are at a maximum this morning at
13 to 19 ft, and will remain steep with a mix of southerly wind
wave, fresh swell, and a west-northwest swell at 15 seconds into
Tuesday. Conditions will be gradually improving Monday afternoon
into Wednesday, with lower/moderate seas expected for much of the
rest of the week. -DW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1005 AM PST Sun Jan 31 2021/

UPDATE...
Updates were just made and sent covering the forecast through
Tuesday. We also have updated the areal flood watches that are
currently in effect across Coos, Curry, Josephine, and western
Siskiyou counties.

DISCUSSION...
The first significant wave of precipitation with the current
frontal system pushed in along and near the coast overnight and is
currently affecting areas from the Cascades westward this
morning. Model guidance did not do great with this wave. The
overnight forecast did better and further improvements were sent
to the web a short time ago to refine forecast details. Main
adjustments were to tine down higher elevation winds for today,
to adjust precipitation amounts, and snowfall amounts through
Tuesday.

The current wave of precipitation is coming in pretty strong this
morning, with a good dump of snow up at Mount Ashland in the last
hour. That's likely to continue for another hour or two before
lightening up, with about 3 inches of snow expected in just that 3
hour period.

Later today through Monday morning precipitation will refocus at
the coast and in the Mount Shasta area before the next heavier
wave heads inland Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.
Coastal areas are still on track for heavy rainfall and possible
flooding, with the greatest concern for flooding being on Monday.
We're currently looking into the possibility of the South Fork of
the Coquille at Myrtle Point and at Powers, as well as the
Coquille at Coquille reaching Action Stage and possibly nudging
into minor flood stage late Monday into Tuesday. ~BTL

AVIATION...For the 31/12Z TAFs...Showers are starting to fall along
the coast and some areas west of the Cascades this morning.  Also,
many surface stations in the larger valleys are reporting strong
winds with gusts approaching 35 knots at times.  We did issue an
airport weather warning for Medford as surface winds did approach 35
knots briefly this morning.  Those strong southeast winds are
expected to continue for most of the morning hours.  Otherwise,  VFR
ceilings are most likely, except for some MVFR ceilings in the
heavier showers along the coast.  This trend will continue for the
majority of the TAF period. -Smith

MARINE...Updated 330 AM PST Sunday 31 Jan 2021...South gales are
expected to continue through this afternoon, and although gales
should come to an end at that time, winds will remain gusty through
Monday afternoon. Meanwhile, very steep and hazardous seas are
ongoing, resulting from a combination of high and very steep wind-
driven seas and west-northwest swell.  In fact, some of these seas
will approach 20 feet later this morning due to the long fetch and
sustained gales across the Pacific Northwest. Then, seas will
gradually diminish late this evening into Monday morning, and are
not likely to drop below 10 feet until late monday or even Tuesday
morning.

Once conditions improve, relatively calm winds and seas are expected
for much the rest of the week, although there is the possibility
that a system or two could bring more wind and steep seas to the
area this weekend. -BPN/Smith

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 347 AM PST Sun Jan 31 2021/

SHORT TERM...A moist frontal system is located near the Pacific
northwest coast with a significant upper level trough to the
west. GOES satellite imagery shows a plume of moisture directed
towards the Oregon coast. Models and ensembles remain on track
showing this front remaining stalled near the coast today and
tonight, then will gradually track inland Monday through Tuesday
morning.

With this pattern expect significant precipitation, especially
along the coast and into Josephine and Siskiyou Counties. Current
models indicate moderate to heavy rain of around 3 to 6 inches
along the southern Oregon coast today through Tuesday morning and
4 to 9 inches of precipitation in the coastal mountains in Curry
County. Josephine and western and southern Siskiyou counties are
expected to receive around 2 to 5 inches of precipitation during
this time.

Snow levels are expected to be around 5500 feet elevation for
western portions of the areas, especially near the coast and just
inland, where significant precipitation is likely. Elsewhere
expect snow levels of around 4500 to 5500 feet today and Monday.
Snow levels will trend lower Monday evening through Tuesday
morning. The main exception to these snow levels is in the Mount
Shasta area where lower snow levels of 3500 to 4000 feet are
forecast in south- central and southeast Siskiyou County near
Mount Shasta. Additional snow accumulations in the higher
mountains above 4500 feet and in the Mount Shasta area above 3500
feet. Moderate to heavy snow is expected through Monday in and
near Mount Shasta with the potential for periods of one inch per
hour snowfall rates over the higher terrain above 4500 feet
elevation today then for elevations above 3500 feet Monday through
Tuesday morning. Of note, precipitation rates will lower some
this evening and tonight across southern Siskiyou county before
increasing substantially Monday and Monday night. Snow levels may
fluctuate higher and times, especially today and early Monday.

An extended period of moderate to locally heavy precipitation
from the coast into Josephine and western Siskiyou Counties
combined with saturated soils and additional runoff from snowmelt
is forecast to bring significant river rises to mainstem rivers
and a potential for small stream and creek flooding. Additionally,
urban areas could see significant ponding of water in low lying
areas or areas with poor drainage. A flood watch remains in effect
through Monday night. Please see the FFAMFR for details.

In addition to precipitation, gusty winds will continue across
the area with strong winds in the Shasta Valley, portions of the
Rogue Valley in Jackson County, over the mountains and into areas
east of the Cascades, including the Summer Lake area. Strong winds
are likely today and moreso on Monday. Gusts to 60 mph are
expected in the Shasta Valley today and Monday and across the
higher terrain and Summer Lake areas east of the Cascades Monday
and Monday night.  The southern Rogue Valley is expected to see
winds gusting to 45 mph today and Monday. High wind warnings and
advisories remain in effect. Please see the NPWMFR for details.

PREVIOUS LONG TERM (ISSUED 343 PM PST Sat Jan 30 2021)...Tuesday
through Saturday...Although the entirety of the long term portion
of the forecast has been freshened with the latest data, much of
what was written yesterday still holds true. The main changes were
to the details of Tuesday/Tuesday night and Thursday night. Low
and mid level clouds will still be present most of the time from
Tuesday into Friday morning.

Compared to the previous depiction of the upper low shifting
inland on Tuesday, and east of our area on Tuesday night, there is a
pronounced well agreed upon shift to a slower movement with
splitting of the trough. This has the biggest impact upon the
forecast for central California. For our area, although still
relatively meager compared to what occurs tonight through Monday
night, the amount and duration of lingering showers and snow showers
on Tuesday has been adjusted higher. This activity will be focused
upon southern Siskiyou County with around 2 to 4 inches of snow
forecast for Tuesday morning in the vicinity of Mt. Shasta with a
snow level around 3700 to 4000 feet. Up to an additional inch is
possible Tuesday afternoon. Showers and snow showers will continue
to taper off into Tuesday night with only a slight chance, mainly
for the higher terrain.

For Wednesday, our weather comes back into closer agreement with
yesterday's expectations. The impact of the longwave trough on our
weather will be minimal and we transition into a new pattern that
will persist into the weekend. It is comprised of a broad ridge
offshore and a series of disturbances (ranging in strength from very
weak to nearly moderate/typical) moving over the top of the ridge
then from northwest to southeast from the Alaskan coast across
the Pacific Northwest. The main point of uncertainty during the
long term relates to the strength of these disturbances, which
will impact temperatures and especially wind speeds and the
probability of precipitation.

The first shortwave disturbance is still expected Wednesday, and
still looks very weak. But, it has trended a bit stronger to warrant
the mention of a slight chance to chance of very light precipitation
for southwest Oregon and northern Klamath County , with the best
chance for an inch of snow in eastern Douglas County above 2000 feet
(around Toketee Falls and Diamond Lake).

Our area is likely to be between disturbances on Thursday, but low
level moisture and stratus will linger in valleys, especially in
southwest Oregon. West winds are expected to be breezy on the east
side, mainly in the afternoon and evening.

As mentioned above, the probability of precipitation late Thursday
night in southwest Oregon and northern Klamath County was increased
above the NBM/blended model solution with the ECMWF and a slight
majority of the ECMWF ensemble members shifting to a
stronger/colder/wetter depiction of what looks to be the strongest
of the disturbances. As such, the snow level was lowered to 3500 to
4000 feet and up to an inch of snow forecast for the southern Oregon
Cascades. On the wet and strong end of the range of model solutions,
it is plausible to receive a more widespread though still light
precipitation event with lower snow levels (down to 2500 feet) and
as much as 3 inches of snow for the southern Oregon Cascades.

Another break between shortwaves is most likely on Friday into
Friday night, although ridging and drying of the air mass is
expected to be stronger compared to Thursday. This would lead to a
higher probability of afternoon sunshine, but also slightly tighter
pressure gradients on the east side with breezy northwest winds
again.

Uncertainty increases rapidly and is very high regarding the timing
and strength of the next shortwave to follow the track and slide
inland over the top of the Pacific ridge. But, a majority of members
are focused on Saturday night into Sunday, and the ECMWF again
trends toward the stronger end of the range of solutions. -DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST Tuesday for ORZ030-031.
     High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
     ORZ030-031.
     Flood Watch through late Monday night for ORZ021-022-024.
     Wind Advisory until 1 PM PST Monday for ORZ026.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Monday above 4500 feet in
     the for ORZ024-028.

CA...Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST Tuesday for CAZ085.
     High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
     CAZ085.
     Flood Watch through late Monday night for CAZ080.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Monday above 4500 feet in
     the for CAZ080.
     Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning
     above 4000 feet in the for CAZ080.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Monday above 3500 feet in
     the for CAZ082-083.
     Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Monday above 4500 feet in
     the for CAZ082-083.
     Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning
     above 3500 feet in the for CAZ082-083.
     High Wind Warning until 4 PM PST Monday for CAZ081.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Flood Watch through late Monday night for
     PZZ350-356.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 5 AM PST Tuesday for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     Gale Warning until 11 AM PST Monday for PZZ356-376.
     Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 AM PST Monday for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     Gale Warning until 1 AM PST Monday for PZZ350-370.

BTL/DW/JRS

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jan 31, 9:27 AM PST, 5 hours 19 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
927 AM PST SUN JAN 31 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0927 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SSE PISTOL RIVER      42.26N 124.39W
01/31/2021  M1.33 INCH       CURRY              OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 0900 PST.

&&

JRS
Local storm report, Jan 31, 9:28 AM PST, 5 hours 18 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
928 AM PST SUN JAN 31 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0928 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SSE PISTOL RIVER      42.26N 124.39W
01/31/2021  M0.87 INCH       CURRY              OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 TOTAL ENDING AT 0800 PST.

&&

JRS
Local storm report, Jan 31, 9:29 AM PST, 5 hours 17 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
929 AM PST SUN JAN 31 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0928 AM     HEAVY RAIN       SELMA                   42.28N 123.62W
01/31/2021  M1.33 INCH       JOSEPHINE          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 TOTAL ENDING AT 0800 PST.

&&

JRS
Local storm report, Jan 31, 10:29 AM PST, 4 hours 17 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1029 AM PST SUN JAN 31 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1028 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SSW OBRIEN            42.05N 123.71W
01/31/2021  M1.40 INCH       JOSEPHINE          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SINCE MIDNIGHT. STILL RAINING.

&&

JRS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Medford, OR issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 31, 2:46 PM PSTWinter Storm WarningMFRSiskiyou43 hr
Jan 31, 12:20 PM PSTRiver Flood WatchMFRCoos, Curry, Douglas29 hr

Nearby

Winter Weather Advisories in Oregon, 2021Winter Weather Advisories in California, 2021Every winter weather advisory in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.