Hazardous Seas Warning 3, NWS Medford, OR

901 
WHUS76 KMFR 052306
MWWMFR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
306 PM PST Tue Jan 5 2021

PZZ350-356-061215-
/O.CON.KMFR.SE.W.0002.000000T0000Z-210106T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.SC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-210106T0000Z/
/O.EXT.KMFR.GL.W.0003.210106T0000Z-210106T1800Z/
/O.EXT.KMFR.SE.W.0003.210106T1500Z-210107T0600Z/
Coastal waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR out 10 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Blanco OR to Pt. St. George CA out 10 nm-
306 PM PST Tue Jan 5 2021

...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST WEDNESDAY...
...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM PST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 kt this afternoon will increase to 
  30 to 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt this evening through early 
  Wednesday morning along with very steep, combined seas of 16 to 
  22 feet. Winds ease late Wednesday morning, but very high and 
  very steep west swell will continue through at least Wednesday 
  evening.

* WHERE...All areas.

* WHEN...For the Hazardous Seas Warning, until 4 PM PST this 
  afternoon. For the Gale Warning, until 10 AM PST Wednesday. 
  For the Hazardous Seas Warning, from 7 AM to 10 PM PST 
  Wednesday. For the Small Craft Advisory, until 4 PM PST this 
  afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds and very steep seas could capsize or 
  damage vessels. Low visibility conditions are expected.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid strong winds and very steep
seas. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or
secure the vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

PZZ376-061215-
/O.EXT.KMFR.GL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-210106T1800Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.SE.W.0002.000000T0000Z-210106T0000Z/
/O.EXT.KMFR.SE.W.0003.210106T1500Z-210107T0600Z/
Waters from Cape Blanco OR to Pt. St. George CA from 10 to 60 nm-
306 PM PST Tue Jan 5 2021

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST WEDNESDAY...
...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM PST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and seas
  20 to 24 ft due to a mix of west swell and wind seas. Winds 
  ease Wednesday, but very high and very steep west swell will 
  continue through at least Wednesday evening.

* WHERE...All areas. Winds will lower over western portions of the
  waters early Wednesday morning then for all the area late
  Wednesday morning. 

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 10 AM PST Wednesday. For 
  the Hazardous Seas Warning, from 7 AM to 10 PM PST Wednesday. 
  For the Hazardous Seas Warning, until 4 PM PST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds and very steep seas could capsize or 
  damage vessels. Low visibility conditions are expected.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid strong winds and very steep
seas. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or
secure the vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

PZZ370-061215-
/O.EXT.KMFR.GL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-210106T1800Z/
/O.EXT.KMFR.SE.W.0003.210106T1500Z-210107T0600Z/
Waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR from 10 to 60 nm-
306 PM PST Tue Jan 5 2021

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST WEDNESDAY...
...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM PST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and seas
  20 to 25 ft due to mix of west swell and wind seas. Winds ease 
  Wednesday, but very high and very steep west swell will continue
  through at least Wednesday evening.

* WHERE...All areas. Winds will lower over western portions of the
  waters early Wednesday morning then for all the area late
  Wednesday morning. 

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 10 AM PST Wednesday. For 
  the Hazardous Seas Warning, from 7 AM to 10 PM PST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds and very steep seas could capsize or 
  damage vessels. Low visibility conditions are expected.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid strong winds and very steep
seas. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or
secure the vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/Medford

754 
WHUS76 KMFR 060457
MWWMFR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
857 PM PST Tue Jan 5 2021

PZZ350-356-370-376-061800-
/O.CON.KMFR.GL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-210106T1800Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.SE.W.0003.210106T1500Z-210107T0600Z/
Coastal waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR out 10 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Blanco OR to Pt. St. George CA out 10 nm-
Waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR from 10 to 60 nm-
Waters from Cape Blanco OR to Pt. St. George CA from 10 to 60 nm-
857 PM PST Tue Jan 5 2021

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST WEDNESDAY...
...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM
PST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 30 to 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt into
  Wednesday morning, along with very steep seas of 16 to 22 feet 
  through Wednesday evening. Winds will lower beyond 30 nm from 
  shore early Wednesday morning then for all of the waters late 
  Wednesday morning. But, very high and very steep west swell will
  continue through Wednesday evening.

* WHERE...All areas. 

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 10 AM PST Wednesday. For the
  Hazardous Seas Warning, from 7 AM to 10 PM PST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds and very steep seas could capsize or 
  damage vessels. Low visibility conditions are expected.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid strong winds and very steep
seas. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or
secure the vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/Medford

992 
WHUS76 KMFR 061056
MWWMFR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
256 AM PST Wed Jan 6 2021

PZZ370-376-070000-
/O.CON.KMFR.GL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-210106T1800Z/
/O.EXT.KMFR.SE.W.0003.210106T1800Z-210107T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.SC.Y.0002.210107T0600Z-210108T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.GL.A.0002.210108T0000Z-210108T0900Z/
Waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR from 10 to 60 nm-
Waters from Cape Blanco OR to Pt. St. George CA from 10 to 60 nm-
256 AM PST Wed Jan 6 2021

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING...
...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM
PST THURSDAY...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...South gales 30 to 40 kt with very steep and hazardous
  seas of 20 to 23 ft through this morning. Winds diminish to 10 
  to 20 kt this afternoon, but seas remain high and very steep at 
  18 to 20 through this evening. Tonight, seas subside briefly to 
  14 to 16 ft through Thursday morning. Another strong front will 
  bring quickly building seas Thursday evening, up to 16 to 21 ft,
  and possible south gales of 30 to 40 kt. 

* WHERE...All areas.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 10 AM PST this morning. For 
  the Hazardous Seas Warning, from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM 
  PST this evening. For the Small Craft Advisory, from 10 PM 
  this evening to 4 PM PST Thursday. For the Gale Watch, from 
  Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds and very steep seas could capsize or 
  damage vessels. Low visibility conditions are expected.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid strong winds and very steep
seas. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or
secure the vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

PZZ350-356-070000-
/O.CON.KMFR.GL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-210106T1800Z/
/O.EXT.KMFR.SE.W.0003.210106T1800Z-210107T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.SC.Y.0002.210107T0600Z-210108T0900Z/
Coastal waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR out 10 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Blanco OR to Pt. St. George CA out 10 nm-
256 AM PST Wed Jan 6 2021

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING...
...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM
PST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South gales 30 to 40 kt with very steep and hazardous
  seas of 17 to 21 ft through this morning. Winds diminish to 10
  to 20 kt this afternoon, but seas remain high and very steep at
  16 to 19 ft through this evening. Tonight, seas subside briefly
  to 12 to 15 ft through Thursday morning. Another strong front
  will bring quickly building seas, 18 to 20 ft, and increasing
  south to southeast winds of 20 to 30 kt Thursday evening into
  Friday.

* WHERE...All areas.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 10 AM PST this morning. For 
  the Hazardous Seas Warning, from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM 
  PST this evening. For the Small Craft Advisory, from 10 PM 
  this evening to 1 AM PST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds and very steep seas could capsize or 
  damage vessels. Low visibility conditions are expected.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid strong winds and very steep
seas. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or
secure the vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/Medford

755 
WHUS76 KMFR 061748
MWWMFR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
948 AM PST Wed Jan 6 2021

PZZ370-376-070000-
/O.CAN.KMFR.GL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-210106T1800Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.SE.W.0003.210106T1800Z-210107T0600Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.SC.Y.0002.210107T0600Z-210108T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.GL.A.0002.210108T0000Z-210108T0900Z/
Waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR from 10 to 60 nm-
Waters from Cape Blanco OR to Pt. St. George CA from 10 to 60 nm-
948 AM PST Wed Jan 6 2021

...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 4 PM PST THURSDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...For the Hazardous Seas Warning, very steep and 
  hazardous seas 17 to 20 ft at 16 seconds expected. For the 
  Small Craft Advisory, south winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 
  35 kt and seas 14 to 16 ft at 15 seconds expected. For the 
  Gale Watch, south winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and 
  seas 16 to 21 ft at 17 seconds possible.

* WHERE...For the Hazardous Seas Warning, from 10 AM this morning
  to 10 PM PST this evening. For the Small Craft Advisory, from 
  10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Thursday. For the Gale Watch, 
  from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night.

* WHEN...For the Hazardous Seas Warning, until 10 PM PST this 
  evening. For the Small Craft Advisory, from 10 PM this evening 
  to 4 PM PST Thursday. For the Gale Watch, from Thursday 
  afternoon through late Thursday night.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds and very steep seas could capsize or 
  damage vessels. Low visibility conditions are expected.

* ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...There is a possibility of a secondary
  front bringing another brief round of gales with shifting wind
  directions and isolated thunderstorms in the mid-afternoon to
  early evening time frame. If this occurs, we'd see 30 to 50 
  knot wind gusts with shifting wind directions in the 1300 to 
  1800 PST time frame along with the possibility of some 
  thunderstorms.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid strong winds and
very steep seas. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course,
and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

PZZ350-356-070000-
/O.EXP.KMFR.GL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-210106T1800Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.SE.W.0003.210106T1800Z-210107T0600Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.SC.Y.0002.210107T0600Z-210108T0900Z/
Coastal waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR out 10 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Blanco OR to Pt. St. George CA out 10 nm-
948 AM PST Wed Jan 6 2021

...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 1 AM PST FRIDAY...
...GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10 AM PST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, south winds 20 to 30 knots with
  gusts 30 to 40 kt. For the Hazardous Seas Warning, very steep 
  and hazardous seas 16 to 19 ft at 16 seconds expected. For the 
  Small Craft Advisory, southeast winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up 
  to 40 kt and seas 11 to 16 ft at 15 seconds expected.

* WHERE...All areas.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 10 AM PST this morning. For 
  the Hazardous Seas Warning, from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM 
  PST this evening. For the Small Craft Advisory, from 10 PM 
  this evening to 1 AM PST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Very steep and hazardous seas could capsize or 
  damage vessels. Bar crossings will become especially 
  treacherous.

* ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...There is a possibility of a secondary
  front bringing another brief round of gales with shifting wind
  directions and isolated thunderstorms in the mid-afternoon to
  early evening time frame. If this occurs, we'd see 30 to 50 
  knot wind gusts with shifting wind directions in the 1300 to 
  1800 PST time frame along with the possibility of some 
  thunderstorms.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Recreational boaters should remain in port. Commercial vessels
should prepare for very steep seas and consider remaining in port
until conditions improve.

&&

$$
BTL
Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/Medford

786 
WHUS76 KMFR 062207
MWWMFR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
207 PM PST Wed Jan 6 2021

PZZ350-356-071115-
/O.CON.KMFR.SE.W.0003.000000T0000Z-210107T0600Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.SC.Y.0002.210107T0600Z-210108T0900Z/
/O.EXA.KMFR.GL.A.0002.210108T0000Z-210108T0900Z/
Coastal waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR out 10 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Blanco OR to Pt. St. George CA out 10 nm-
207 PM PST Wed Jan 6 2021

...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 1 AM PST FRIDAY...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...South to southwest winds of 20 to 30 kt may gust to 35 kt
  or higher at times through early this evening. Very steep,
  combined seas of 15 to 20 ft are expected through this evening.
  Seas will briefly lower but remain steep tonight into Thursday.
  Another strong front will bring south winds 25 to 35 kt and very
  steep, combined seas 15 to 20 ft Thursday evening and night.
  Very high and very steep seas of 17 to 20 ft at 17 seconds are 
  expected on Friday.
 
* WHERE...All areas. 

* WHEN...For the Hazardous Seas Warning, until 10 PM PST this 
  evening. For the Small Craft Advisory, from 10 PM this evening 
  to 4 PM PST Thursday. For the Gale Watch, from Thursday 
  afternoon through late Thursday night.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds and very steep seas could capsize or 
  damage vessels. Low visibility conditions are expected.

* ADDITIONAL INFORMATION... A secondary front may bring a brief
  round of gales with shifting wind directions and isolated
  thunderstorms this afternoon into early this evening. If this 
  occurs, we'd see 30 to 50 knot wind gusts with shifting wind 
  directions in the 1300 to 1800 PST time frame along with the 
  possibility of some thunderstorms.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid strong winds and
very steep seas. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course,
and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

PZZ370-376-071115-
/O.CON.KMFR.SE.W.0003.000000T0000Z-210107T0600Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.SC.Y.0002.210107T0600Z-210108T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.GL.A.0002.210108T0000Z-210108T0900Z/
Waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR from 10 to 60 nm-
Waters from Cape Blanco OR to Pt. St. George CA from 10 to 60 nm-
207 PM PST Wed Jan 6 2021

...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 4 PM PST THURSDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...South to southwest winds of 20 to 30 kt may gust to 35 kt
  or higher at times through early this evening. Very steep,
  combined seas of 18 to 21 ft are expected through this evening.
  Seas will briefly lower but remain steep tonight into Thursday.
  Another strong front will bring south winds 30 to 35 kt with
  gusts to 40 kt and very steep, combined seas 18 to 21 ft
  Thursday evening and night. Very high and very steep seas of 18
  to 21 ft at 17 seconds are expected on Friday.

* WHERE...For the Hazardous Seas Warning, from 10 AM this 
  morning to 10 PM PST this evening. For the Small Craft 
  Advisory, from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Thursday. For 
  the Gale Watch, from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday 
  night.

* WHEN...For the Hazardous Seas Warning, until 10 PM PST this 
  evening. For the Small Craft Advisory, from 10 PM this evening 
  to 4 PM PST Thursday. For the Gale Watch, from Thursday 
  afternoon through late Thursday night.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds and very steep seas could capsize or 
  damage vessels. Low visibility conditions are expected.

* ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...A secondary front may bring a brief 
  round of gales with shifting wind directions and isolated 
  thunderstorms this afternoon into early this evening. If this 
  occurs, we'd see 30 to 50 knot wind gusts with shifting wind 
  directions in the 1300 to 1800 PST time frame along with the 
  possibility of some thunderstorms.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid strong winds and
very steep seas. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course,
and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/Medford

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1140 AM PST Tue Jan 5 2021

The Aviation section has been updated for the 18Z TAF Cycle...

.UPDATE...Fog has been very prevalent in many of the area valleys
this morning, even east of the Cascades. Expect this fog to
thin/lift a bit over the next hour or so, but may not clear
completely until late this morning or this afternoon, especially
once winds start picking up ahead of the next front, due to arrive
tomorrow. A few updates were made to bring winds, sky, and
visibility condition in line with current observations, but no
major changes were necessary. Main forecast efforts today will
focus on tomorrow's system, and another expected on Friday. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...For the 05/18Z TAFs... LIFR to IFR low clouds and fog
exist across many of the west side valleys this morning, especially
in the Scott, Klamath, Rogue, and Illinois valleys. Most of these
areas are expected to become VFR around 21Z, though the Scott Valley
may not break out of the IFR today and lower conditions could linger
some in other areas past 21Z. Otherwise, VFR is expected as mid and
high level clouds stream inland ahead of a cold front approaching
the area.

This evening through Wednesday morning the cold front will move onto
the coast and across the forecast area with snow levels most likely
between 3kft and 4kft. Low level wind shear is expected this
afternoon through this evening along and near the coast and in the
Roseburg area late tonight through Wednesday morning. The front will
be accompanied by moderate precipitation in most areas, though it
could be heavy at times along and near the coastal ranges eastward.
~BTL

&&

.MARINE...Updated 830 AM PST Tuesday, 5 Jan 2021...
Large, long period west-northwest swell will result in hazardous
seas today across most of the area beyond a few miles of the coast.
Southerly winds will reach gale force for much of the area beyond
10NM of the coast late this morning and then will expand all the way
to the coast early this evening through Wednesday morning as a
strong cold front moves through. Seas will build further today into
Wednesday due to a mix of very steep wind waves and west swell.
These seas are expected to peak tonight and Wednesday morning at
around 18 to 25 ft. Winds ease late Wednesday morning, however, seas
will remain very high and steep into Wednesday night, becoming swell
dominated. With these very steep, hazardous seas expect large
breaking waves of 22 to 27 ft and hazardous bar crossings through at
least Wednesday night. Winds ease late Wednesday morning, but very
steep and hazardous seas will likely persist into Thursday, becoming
west swell dominated.

The next frontal system in this active pattern is expected Thursday
night into Friday. Although confidence is low on the details of this
front, another round of gales will be possible in addition to
another round of very high and very steep seas on Friday. Initially,
high seas will be due to a mix of very steep wind seas and building,
long period west swell then becoming dominated by very high and very
steep west swell. Winds will ease late Friday into Saturday and
there will be a period of relatively improved conditions. Seas will
briefly lower to 10 to 13 ft Saturday, build will quickly build to
18 to 20 ft again Saturday night into Sunday. Another strong front
is expected Saturday night into Sunday. ~BTL/BR-y

&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 130 AM PST Tuesday, 4 Jan 2021...A High
Surf Advisory is in effect with breaking wave heights of 22 to 27
feet expected to persist through the wee hours of Thursday morning.
While the extent of the hazard will be remarkably consistent, surf
will likely reach a peak late Tuesday night.

Improvement on Thursday is expected to be brief. Additional strong
frontal system activity across the northeastern Pacific is expected
late in the week into early next week.  Large surf is likely to
return to to area beaches on Friday. Confidence in the height of
surf on Friday into Sunday is low, but at times it is likely to
approach and may exceed the heights of early this week.

Use extreme caution along and near the beaches and stay away from
the ocean. Jetties, rocks, logs and bar entrances are not safe
places to be during this period of significant waves. The Pacific
Ocean is both cold and powerful. These large waves can easily sweep
people and large objects into the water. NEVER turn your back on the
ocean!

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 246 AM PST Tue Jan 5 2021/

DISCUSSION...near term discussion is from the Monday evening
AFD at 10 PM PST...A strong front has now exited to the east of
the Medford forecast area. Winds have abated, but post-frontal
showers persist with a snow level of 4000 to 4500 feet. The 05/00Z
KMFR sounding had the freezing level at 4800 feet, which is right
in line with the snow levels. The showers will end later tonight.

There will be a break in the action tonight into Tuesday as a long
wave upper ridge moves through, but that break will be short-
lived. The ridge axis will break to the east of the area early
Tuesday afternoon, and the upstream trough will move in hot on
it's heels. The associated front will move onshore late Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning.

Overall, this front will be weaker than the front that moved
onshore earlier Monday. It will bring significant winds and
precipitation though. Snow levels will rise from 3000 feet to
around 5000 feet with the onset of precipitation. Valleys
sheltered from the initial winds may see some freezing rain for a
short period, but confidence in forecasting the locations where
that might occur is low, and thus it is not in the current
forecast.

The front will move quickly, moving to the east of the Medford
forecast area Wednesday afternoon. Post-frontal showers will
persist into Wednesday night, ending by Thursday. Just in time for
the next incoming system.

Long term...The next trough will move into the area late
Thursday morning. The trough will dig as it nears the west coast,
supported by the left exit region of the upper level jet and does
not appear to occlude before making landfall in N. OR/S. WA. The
digging action of the trough is resulting in some timing and
intensity issues with winds in response to the large scale
gradients.

The timing is a difference of 6-12hrs Thursday evening/night.
Strong south winds are expected with it, which will result in
gusty winds at the coast, southern Rogue valley, and the Shasta
valley from Weed north, along with the regions ridges. The first
hi-res runs at this time frame will be available later today, so
will have to defer edits until then to confirm the timing of the
winds. Wind strength is varying from just below advisory strength
and low end advisory in the Shasta valley near Weed. That is,
about 20-25 mph sustained along the coast, 15-20 mph near Ashland,
25-30 mph near Weed (gusts to 45 mph).

The lack of occlusion means that snow levels will be on the rise
before the heaviest precipitation. Snow levels in the Cascades
will start around 4,000 ft, rise between 4,500 and 5,000 ft,
before falling back down to about 4,000 ft Friday morning. At the
Siskiyous and remainder of the west side, snow levels will rise
just over 5,000 ft (probably about 5,300 ft), before falling back
to 3,500 to 4,000 ft Friday morning. With snow levels not lowering
until the tail end of this event, snow amounts are on the lighter
side, especially in the Cascades. The highest snow amounts are in
the Western Siskiyou and Marble mountains.

The pattern then begins to slow and weak ridging is shown to build
into the area, or tries to. Some weaker lows will continue to
cycle through the region early next weak. Likely resulting in
some weak fronts moving onshore and have gone with a solution more
resembling weak troughing, as the idea of ridging building in
strong enough to stop these fronts seems a bit rushed and is
supported in the NBM statistical guidance. That said the number
of ensemble members from the WPC cluster analysis showing
troughing at this time is 26%, spearheaded by 22% of the ECMWF
members (of 50). If the fronts do move onshore, chances do not
favor much precipitation east of the Cascades.

After Tuesday night, more significant ridging should build into
the area. All members show ridging at this time, varying slightly
in strength, but almost insignificantly so as the upstream troughs
are not strong enough to break through even the weakest of the
ridges. The wave pattern upstream breaks down in both the ECMWF
and GEFS, so the ridging could last for more than a few days.
-Miles

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM PST Thursday for ORZ021-022.
     Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 10 PM PST Wednesday for ORZ030-031.

CA...Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 10 PM PST Wednesday for CAZ085.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for
     PZZ350-356.
     Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM PST Wednesday for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     Hazardous Seas Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.