Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
314 PM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021

...Possible Strong To Isolated Severe Storms Through Tonight...
...Rough Marine Conditions Early This Weekend Behind Frontal Passage...
...Possible High Surf Conditions West Coast Beaches Friday/Friday Night...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of Today through Friday)...

Showers and thunderstorms have started to develop this afternoon out
ahead of an approaching cold front. As the cold front gets closer to
the area, shower and thunderstorm activity will continue to increase
from northwest to southeast as the afternoon progresses into
tonight. With plenty of daytime heating taking place out ahead of
the front, there is enough instability to support the possibility
of Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms especially over the
Lake Okeechobee region and portions of the Gulf coast. The
strongest thunderstorms could contain strong to damaging wind
gusts, small hail, and an isolated tornado. Farther to the
southeast, strong to isolated severe thunderstorm development will
still be possible out ahead of the front, however, parameters are
a little bit more marginal due to gradual loss of upper level
support as the best dynamics move off to the northeast. Deep
tropical moisture will continue to move into the region this
afternoon as forecasted PWAT values could exceed 2 inches out
ahead of the approaching front. This will help to contribute to
heavy downpours with the stronger thunderstorms. With heavy
downpours possible as well as multiple thunderstorms moving over
the same area, localized flooding will be a concern over the metro
areas through tonight.

The front should push offshore during the early morning hours on
Friday. A few lingering showers and thunderstorms will be possible
in the morning, however, a drier air mass will gradually push into
the region, and these chances of showers and thunderstorms will
diminsh as the day progresses. As high pressure builds back into the
region, the pressure gradient over South Florida will remain tight.
This will allow for a gusty westerly wind flow throughout the day
on Friday. High temperatures on Friday will generally range from the
lower 80s over the Lake Okeechobee region to the mid to upper 80s
over the east coast metro areas.

.LONG TERM...
(This Weekend)...

A trough of low pressure will continue to move eastward from the
Eastern United States into the Atlantic waters. This will allow
for the the surface low over the Tennessee Valley to move eastward
into the Northern Atlantic Waters which in turn will allow for the
wind flow over South Florida to swing from a westerly direction
on Saturday to a northerly direction on Sunday. Therefore, there
will still be some showers around on Saturday over South Florida
but by Sunday the weather will be dry due to the drier air working
into the region from the north.

Highs this weekend will be around 80 except in the upper 70s
around the Lake Okeechobee region. The lows will be in the 60s
except mid to upper 50s west of Lake Okeechobee. The only
exception will be Friday night where the lows will be 60s over
most areas except around 70 east coast metro areas.

(Early To Middle Of Next Week)...
High pressure will build into Southeastern United States for the
early to middle of next week. This will allow for the wind flow to
swing to more of a easterly direction over South Florida. The weather
should remain dry for Monday, but by Tuesday into Wednesday there
should be a few showers affecting the east coast metro areas due
to the increase low level moisture. Therefore, a slight chance of
showers will remain in the forecast for the east coast metro areas
for middle of next week.

Highs will slowly warm up into the mid 80s over South Florida by
middle of next week. The lows will also warm up and should be back
into mid to upper 60s over most areas, except around 70 east coast
metro areas by middle of next week.

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...
A gusty southwesterly flow will continue across all terminals this
afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop from
west to east out ahead of an approaching cold front as the afternoon
progresses. Periods of MVFR or even IFR are possible in showers
and thunderstorms. Short fused amendments will be possible this
afternoon into tonight. A gusty west to southwesterly flow
continues across all terminals on Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
As a strong frontal boundary approaches the region this afternoon,
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop out
ahead of it. Some of these thunderstorms could be strong to severe
containing strong gusty winds, small hail, and isolated waterspouts.
Winds will continue to increase out of the west southwest this
afternoon into tonight. As the front passes through, strong westerly
winds will continue into Friday and the upcoming weekend. Seas over
the Gulf will rapidly increase through Friday as a westerly swell
develops behind the front. Small Craft Advisories for the Atlantic
and Gulf waters will continue through Friday night. However, they
may need to be extended into the upcoming weekend if the current
forecast trends continue.

&&

.BEACHES...
A strong cold front will move through the region later tonight. With
a strong westerly wind flow developing, there will be a high risk of
rip currents across the Gulf Coast beaches through the end of the
week and into the upcoming weekend. The risk of rip currents will
also increase across the east coast beaches into the upcoming
weekend as a northeasterly swell builds over the Atlantic waters.
At the same time, a westerly swell will develop in the Gulf of
Mexico resulting in wave heights potentially reaching 6 feet on
Friday into Friday night across the Collier County beaches. This
will continue to be monitored as a High Surf Advisory may be
needed for this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            76  87  71  83 /  70  20  20  30
West Kendall     75  88  70  83 /  70  20  20  30
Opa-Locka        76  88  70  83 /  70  20  20  30
Homestead        75  86  72  83 /  70  30  20  30
Fort Lauderdale  76  87  70  82 /  70  20  20  30
N Ft Lauderdale  76  87  70  82 /  70  20  20  30
Pembroke Pines   75  87  69  83 /  70  20  20  30
West Palm Beach  74  87  68  81 /  60  20  20  30
Boca Raton       75  88  70  82 /  70  20  20  30
Naples           76  83  71  79 /  70  20  30  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ069.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ610.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

Tonight/Friday and Aviation/Marine...CWC
Friday Night through Thursday...BNB

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
343 PM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021

FLZ071>074-172-282045-
Inland Broward County FL-Coastal Broward County FL-
Metro Broward County FL-Metropolitan Miami Dade FL-Inland Miami-
Dade County FL-
343 PM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021

...Gusty showers will impact portions of northern Miami-Dade and
southern Broward Counties through 445 PM EDT...

At 342 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
gusty showers along a line extending from near Intersection Krome And
U.S. 27 to 8 miles east of Shark Valley Obs Tower. Movement was
northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Miami, Hialeah, Fort Lauderdale, Pembroke Pines, Hollywood, Miramar,
Pompano Beach, Davie, Plantation, Sunrise, Tamarac, Coral Gables,
South Miami, Miami Gardens, Kendall, Lauderhill, Weston, Doral,
Oakland Park and Lauderdale Lakes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 2625 8013 2572 8029 2563 8070 2603 8046
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 231DEG 24KT 2597 8047 2567 8064

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

AR